Tag Archive: Switzerland

SNB’s history of balance sheet and Monthly bulletin

The SNB monthly bulletins contain all important data of the SNB and the Swiss economy as of the latest quarter.

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SNB & CHF, the blog on a beleaguered central bank, its currency, on gold and astute investments

SNBCHF.com tracks Swiss macro-economic news and the Swiss National Bank. The SNB finally gave up the euro peg and agreed with the authors of this blog. Over years this blog expressed opposition against the EUR/CHF peg in about 900 different pages. They track the strong Swiss economic performance over these years. They explain all logical and fundamental Forex background why this peg did not have any reason to exist or, at least, why it was doomed...

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Q1/2015: Swiss Real GDP Rises by 15 percent … in Euro Terms

George Dorgan shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement in the local currency. Effectively, Swiss real GDP rose by 15% in Euro terms, but fell slightly in CHF. He also emphasizes that Switzerland needs a big rebalancing of its economy, away from exports towards consumption. The Swiss National Bank was right to remove the euro peg. The move towards consumption is only possible when the Swiss franc is stronger because consumers will...

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The two phases of CHF appreciation… and what is in between

We show the two phases or "two innings" of Swiss franc appreciation: The risk aversion phase and the high inflation phase. With the weakening of emerging markets and the strengthening of the United States in 2013/2014, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had won the first battle in the war against financial market, the "risk aversion game", the first inning in two-part match. Risk aversion is lower because the United States recovered with weaker oil...

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(10.1.2) Net International Investment Position Switzerland and Italy

Net International Invest Position Switzerland

We compare aspects of the Net International Investment Positions for Italy and Switzerland

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(2.3) Differences in global CPI baskets

Typically poorer countries have a basket with a higher weight for food and other consumption goods, but richer states give them a smaller weight. Here the full details over different countries

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(2.6) CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate Since 1965: Yen Still Most Overvalued Currency

Japa Switzerland Norway New Zealand Germany Australia Singapore Italy Canada Franc UK USA United States

If we calculate Real Effective Exchange rates on the base year 1965, the Japanese yen remains the most overvalued currency. This analysis is based on the real effective exchange rate (REER) provided by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) and a consumer price-index adjusted exchange rate. The real value of the yen is around 50% higher than 1965, the same applies to the Swiss franc.

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(3) Inflation, Central Banks and Interest Rates

In this chapter we connect three related concepts: inflation, central banks and interest rates.

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(6) FX Theory: Carry Trade and Reverse Carry Trade

This page discusses two closely related concepts: the carry trade and the reverse carry trade.

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Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows

There is a straightforward answer to the question in the headline: more money has been trying to get into Switzerland than get out, which didn’t affect the exchange rate as long as the Swiss National Bank bought foreign currency. As soon as they stop...

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Death of an FX punter

2015-01-16

by Paul Murphy

2015-01-16

terriegym: Ive came back to my computer and Alpari have closed all my trades, loosing over $1000 off of my current balance, anyone got any idea what may have happened!!! they arent answering the phone!!

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Downwards and Upwards Drivers of Swiss Inflation

In the following we present the drivers of Swiss price inflation. We first present the components of the consumer price index. Then we explain which are upwards-drivers of inflation and which ones cause downwards adjustments.

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Swiss Balance of Payments 2014, Q1-Q3 and Implications on CHF

The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis and, even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of bad US economic data and/or Quantitative Easing (QE). Risk-friendly investors move into risky assets like stocks or currencies of emerging markets, while risk-averse investors fear inflation and buy inflation-resistant assets like Swiss francs.

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Swiss Gold Referendum: Results and Analysis

In a referendum, the Swiss had to decide about: 1) Ecopop, an ecological-political movement that wants to limit immigration to 0.2% of the population. 2) Abolishment of tax advantages for rich foreigners. 3) A gold initiative. All three initiatives were rejected, the gold initiative by 78%. George Dorgan summarizes the outcome. He explains what it means for gold, CHF and the SNB. He argues that the next economic cycle will be driven by...

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