Follow @dorgang

Follow @snbchf

Tag Archive: Switzerland

(3) Inflation, Central Banks and Interest Rates

In this chapter we connect three related concepts: inflation, central banks and interest rates.

Read More »

(6) FX Theory: Carry Trade and Reverse Carry Trade

This page discusses two closely related concepts: the carry trade and the reverse carry trade.

Read More »

Why did the Swiss franc spike? Lack of Capital Outflows

There is a straightforward answer to the question in the headline: more money has been trying to get into Switzerland than get out, which didn’t affect the exchange rate as long as the Swiss National Bank bought foreign currency. As soon as they stop...

Read More »

Death of an FX punter

2015-01-16

by Paul Murphy

2015-01-16

terriegym: Ive came back to my computer and Alpari have closed all my trades, loosing over $1000 off of my current balance, anyone got any idea what may have happened!!! they arent answering the phone!!

Read More »

Downwards and Upwards Drivers of Swiss Inflation

In the following we present the drivers of Swiss price inflation. We first present the components of the consumer price index. Then we explain which are upwards-drivers of inflation and which ones cause downwards adjustments.

Read More »

Swiss Balance of Payments 2014, Q1-Q3 and Implications on CHF

The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis and, even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of bad US economic data and/or Quantitative Easing (QE). Risk-friendly investors move into risky assets like stocks or currencies of emerging markets, while risk-averse investors fear inflation and buy inflation-resistant assets like Swiss francs.

Read More »

Swiss Gold Referendum: Results and Analysis

In a referendum, the Swiss had to decide about: 1) Ecopop, an ecological-political movement that wants to limit immigration to 0.2% of the population. 2) Abolishment of tax advantages for rich foreigners. 3) A gold initiative. All three initiatives were rejected, the gold initiative by 78%. George Dorgan summarizes the outcome. He explains what it means for gold, CHF and the SNB. He argues that the next economic cycle will be driven by...

Read More »

Ron Paul: Will The Swiss Vote to Get Their Gold Back?

Financial Cycles History, 1990-1996: Breakdown of Communism, German Reunification, Housing Busts in Europe and Japan

A history of financial cycles: 1990-1996 the breakdown of communism leads to a boom in Germany and - due to high interest rates and inflation - to a breakdown of the European monetary system.

Read More »

Swiss Franc History 1986-1996: Swiss real estate Boom and Bust

A critical Swiss franc history: This chapter describes the most controversial episode in the Swiss monetary history: How the Swiss National Bank helped to wreck the Swiss real estate market in the 1990s.

Read More »

Our Core Thesis

Research on SNB & CHF

Inflation Difference between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows to 0.3 percent

2014-06-16

by George Dorgan

2014-06-16

According to Swiss Statistics the inflation rate has risen to 0.2% y/y – as for both the Swiss CPI standard and the European HICP standard.

Read More »

QE, QEE, the Money Multiplier and the Secular Stagnation Confusion

In some countries, the money multiplier is falling, in some others it is increasing, mostly due to central bank tightening. Does this justify to speak of secular stagnation?

Read More »

Swiss Yearly Inflation Rate Overtakes First Eurozone Countries

2014-04-11

by George Dorgan

2014-04-11

swiss consumer price index, eurozone hicp harmonized consumer price index

According to Swiss Statistics the yearly inflation rate is at 0.0%, and the monthly rate is +0.4%. The Spanish CPI is already under zero at -0.2%, and the Italian one is at +0.3%, not to speak about severe Cyprus or Greek deflation . Still in February 2012, the difference between the Swiss and Euro …

Read More »

Swiss customs: first time detailed trade statistics for gold available; Asia main export market

emu vs. swiss m3 credit, exceeds eurozone

Switzerland is currently living in a big real estate boom. The bubble bursting would imply that banks' collateral in the form of real estate falls in value. Therefore the banks' assets might fall because many home buyers might not be able to repay their mortgage. If a real estate bubble pops, then banks should be better capitalized to absorb such a shock. Therefore the Swiss National Bank introduced macro-prudential measures, like the so-called...

Read More »

Inflation Difference between Eurozone and Switzerland Narrows to 0.5 percent

2014-01-10

by George Dorgan

2014-01-10

Another five months till Swiss inflation is higher? When the European economy starts to expand again, who will hike rates first, the SNB or the ECB? December Update According to Swiss Statistics the inflation rate remained stable at 0.1% y/y, while the inflation measured by the European HICP standard was +0.3% y/y, slightly higher than … Continue reading »

Read More »