Tag Archive: S&P 500 Index

Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”

‘We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.’ There are a lot of warnings on Bloomberg, CNBC and other financial media these days about a bubble in the stock market, particularly in FANG stocks and the tech sector.

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FX Weekly Review, July 24 – July 29: Swiss Franc getting crushed

The Swiss franc was the only major foreign currency that fell against the dollar last week.  The 2.6% decline was the largest in two years.

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Great Graphic: Surprise-S&P 500 Outperforming the Dow Jones Stoxx 600

Many asset managers have been bullish European shares this year. European and emerging market equities are among the favorite plays this year. Surveys of fund managers find that the allocation to US equities is among the lowest in nearly a decade. The case against the US is based on overvaluation and being a crowded trade. Many are concerned about too hawkish of a Federal Reserve (policy mistake) or the lack of tax reform.

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FX Weekly Review, July 17 – July 22: Euro and CHF move upwards against Dollar

Both Swiss Franc and Euro were moving upwards against the dollar. So CHF gained 3% versus the dollar in the last month. CHF losses against the euro are smaller, around 1.3%.

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US S&P 500 Index, Federal Funds Target, Manufacturing Payrolls, US Imports and US Banking Data: All Conundrums Matter

Since we are this week hypocritically obsessing over monetary policy, particularly the federal funds rate end of it, it’s as good a time as any to review the full history of 21st century “conundrum.” Janet Yellen’s Fed has run itself afoul of the bond market, just as Alan Greenspan’s Fed did in the middle 2000’s.

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FX Weekly Review, July 10 – July 15: CHF Winning against USD, but losing vs. Euro

The Euro remained the strongest among EUR, CHF and USD during the last month.  The Swiss lost against EUR 1.5%, while it gained versus the dollar 0.75%.

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FX Weekly Review, July 03 – July 08: Second Euro appreciation phase

The ECB appears to be preparing investors for a further adjustment of its risk assessment and a reduction of its asset purchases as they are extended into next year. This assessment has marked a new phase of an appreciating EUR/CHF rate. It followed the previous phase, the one with and after the French elections.  

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FX Weekly Review, June 26 – July 01: Normalization Ideas Weigh on Greenback

A virus has spread across the markets as the first half drew to a close. Many investors have become giddy. The low vol environment was punctuated by ideas that peak in monetary accommodation is past and that the gradual process of normalization is beginning.

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FX Weekly Review, June 19 – June 24: Stronger Franc with Fading Euro Enthusiam

Over the last month, the Swiss franc outpaced both EUR and USD. But the change is only little, the EUR fell by 0.60% and the dollar by 0.40%. The main reason for the stronger CHF is the fading enthusiasm after Macron's victory in the French elections and hence a weaker euro. Consequently SNB interventions are rising again.

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FX Weekly Review, June 12 – June 17: Greenback Still Trying To Turn

Swiss Franc vs USD and EUR Rarely in the foreign exchange market is there a V-shaped extreme. Most of the time, the high or low is a process that is carved over time. Although the explanation of the dollar’s weakness here in H1 vary, we continue to believe that the longer-term cyclical rally, the third since … Continue reading »

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FX Weekly Review, June 05 – June 10: Sterling Leads Dollar Recovery

The US Dollar has lost 4% against the franc since the beginning of May, while the euro is down only 1%. Most important events in this week were the ECB meeting and the UK elections. The inability of the Tory Party to secure a parliamentary majority spurred a sharp decline in sterling.

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FX Weekly Review, May 29 – June 03: Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data

While the Euro traded in the range between 1.08 and 1.09, the dollar declined by nearly 3%. The technical indicators warn that the US dollar is stretched, but the combination of disappointing auto sales and jobs report may deny it the interest rate support needed to facilitate a resumption of the bull market.

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FX Weekly Review, May 22 – 27: Is the Dollar Going To Turn?

The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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Moving Closer to the Precipice

The decline in the growth rate of the broad US money supply measure TMS-2 that started last November continues, but the momentum of the decline has slowed last month (TMS = “true money supply”). The data were recently updated to the end of April, as of which the year-on-year growth rate of TMS-2 is clocking in at 6.05%, a slight decrease from the 6.12% growth rate recorded at the end of March.

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Great Graphic: OIl and the S&P 500

The fluctuation of oil prices is often cited as an important factor driving equities. Our work shows that this is not always the case and that the correlation between the price of oil and the S&P 500 continues to ease.

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FX Weekly Review, May 15-20: Swiss Franc recovering against EUR

The Swiss Franc recovered a lot of the losses that came with the French elections. That political event was mostly driven by speculators that will close their positions. We expected the EUR to trade around 1.07 to 1.0750 CHF in some time.

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“Sell in May”: Good Advice – But Is There a Better Way?

If you “sell in May and go away”, you are definitely on the right side of the trend from a statistical perspective: While gains were achieved in the summer months in three of the eleven largest stock markets in the world, they amounted to less than one percent on average. In six countries stocks even exhibited losses!

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FX Weekly Review, May 08-13: Euro rises far above 1.09 CHF, for how long?

The euro rose up to 1.0980. How long this momentum will last is still the question, given that it is driven by this political event and sustained by SNB interventions.

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FX Weekly Review, May 01 – 06: Seasonal Patterns and Yen Crosses

The Swiss Franc index gained 1.5% in the last month, the biggest part of it is from the last week. The trade-weighted indices the Fed tracks are updated monthly. The Bank of England calculates the effective exchange rate on a daily basis. It has not fallen since April 24.

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Clickbait: Bernanke Terrifies Stock Investors, Again

If you are a stock investor, you should be terrified. The most disconcerting words have been uttered by the one person capable of changing the whole dynamic. After spending so many years trying to recreate the magic of the “maestro”, Ben Bernanke in retirement is still at it.

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