Tag Archive: newslettersent

China Exports, China Imports: Textbook

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

China Exports 2013-2017
China’s export growth disappointed in July, only we don’t really know by how much. According to that country’s Customs Bureau, exports last month were 7.2% above (in US$ terms) exports in July 2016. That’s down from 11.3% growth in June, which as usual had been taken in the mainstream as evidence of “strong” or “robust” global demand.

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Is Another Oil Head-Fake Brewing?

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

Crude Oil, Apr 2016 - Jul 2017
Over the past decade I've addressed what I call Head-Fakes in the cost of oil/fossil fuel: even though we know the cost of extracting and processing oil will rise over time as the easy-to-get oil is depleted, oil occasionally plummets to such low prices that we're fooled into thinking it will remain cheap for a long time to come.

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Can Switzerland Survive Today’s Assault On Cash And Sound Money?

2017-08-08

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2017-08-08

“Switzerland will have the last word,” wrote Victor Hugo in the late 19th century. “It possesses one of the most perfect forms of government in the world.” A contemporary of his, Frederick Kuenzli, a scholar of the Swiss Army, boasted: “No purer type of Republican ideals, no more fixed and devoted adherence to those ideals can be found in all the world than in Switzerland.”

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Bitcoin Forked – Precious Metals Supply and Demand Report

2017-08-08

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2017-08-08

Gold and silver prices
Keith Weiner’s weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Switzerland Unemployment in July 2017: Remained unchanged at 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 3.2 percent

2017-08-08

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2017-08-08

Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a. July 2017
Registered unemployment in July 2017 - According to the SECO, at the end of July 2017, 133,926 unemployed persons were registered with the regional employment services centers (RAVs), 323 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 5'384 persons (-3.9%).

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Tourist accommodation in the first half of 2017: Overnight stays increased by 4.4percent in the first half of 2017

2017-08-08

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2017-08-08

Hotels and spa companies Development of overnight stays for the first half year (January to June) 2013-2017
The hotel sector registered 17.6 million overnight stays in Switzerland in the first half of 2017, representing an increase of 4.4% (+738,000 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 9.5 million overnight stays, foreign demand rose by 4.7% (+428,000). Domestic visitors registered 8.1 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 4.0% (+310,000).

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Great Graphic: Unemployment by Education Level

2017-08-08

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2017-08-08

The US reports the monthly jobs data tomorrow.  The unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in June, after finishing last year at 4.7%.  At the end of 2015 was 5.0%.  Some economists expect the unemployment rate to have slipped to 4.3% in July. Recall that this measure (U-3) of unemployment counts those who do not have a job but are looking for one. 

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in July 2017: Up +0.3 percent against 2016, -0.3 percent against last month

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, July 2017
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in July 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.6 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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FX Daily, August 07: Outlaw Mondays

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

The US dollar is narrowly mixed to start the new week. Two main developments stand out. First, the dollar-bloc currencies are trading heavily. The Australian dollar is pushing lower for the fifth consecutive session. The greenback is advancing against the Canadian dollar for the sixth consecutive session. The New Zealand dollar is weaker for the fifth time in six sessions.

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Dying men generate higher health costs

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

Both gender and location influence the cost of end-of-life healthcare in Switzerland, finds a study funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation. In their analysis of 113,277 people who died between 2008 and 2010, researchers studied regional variations in cost of care during the last 12 months of life in Switzerland. Per person, the mean cost of care during that final year was CHF32,500 ($33,540).

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Weekly Speculative Positions (as of August 01): Speculators Press Ahead with Dollar-Bloc Currencies, but Hesitate with Euro and Yen

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

The net speculative CHF position has risen from -1.5K short to 1.4K contracts long (against USD). In the CFTC reporting week ending August 1, speculators in the futures market continued to build long exposure in the dollar-bloc currencies. In the three sessions after the reporting period closed, the dollar-bloc currencies have traded heavily.

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FX Weekly Preview: Moving Toward September

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

The technical and fundamental case for the euro has weakened. Rate differentials have begun moving back in the US favor. France's Macron and Japan's Abe have sunk in the polls lower than Trump.

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Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

EM FX appears to be rolling over (see our recent piece “Is EM FX Finally Turning?”). Technical indicators are stretched as many EM currencies bump up against strong resistance levels.  Strong US jobs data is bringing Fed tightening back into focus.  We think ZAR could be shaping up to be the canary in a coalmine. It was -3% vs. USD last week and by far the worst in EM.

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FX Weekly Review, July 31 – August 05: Second Week of Strong CHF Losses

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 05
The Swiss Franc entered the second week of stronger losses. While the euro gained 4% last week, the dollar appreciated against the Swiss Franc 2% during this week.

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Great Graphic: Italy-It is Not Just about Legacy

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

Global Financial Crisis, 1995 - 2016
A little while back I was part of a small exchange of views on twitter. It was about Italy. I was arguing against a claim that Italy's woes are all about its past fiscal excesses. It is not just about about Italy's legacy.

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Median Swiss salaries by occupation, region, gender and immigration status

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

If you have ever wondered how much employees in Switzerland get paid you can check with the online tool Salarium, created by the Swiss government. The information is compiled from a database of numbers from a salary survey done in 2014.

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Gold Consolidates On 2.5percent Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

Gold in USD, Jan 2013 - 2017
Gold consolidates on 2.5% gain in July as the dollar has fifth monthly decline. Trump administration and vicious “civil war” politics casting shadow over America and impacting dollar. All eyes on non farm payrolls today for further signs of weakness in U.S. economy. Gold recovers from 1.7% decline in June as dollar falls. Gold outperforms stocks and benchmark S&P 500 YTD.

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Gotthard Rail Tunnel Boosts North-South Traffic by a Third

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

About 2.3 million rail passengers have travelled through the new transalpine tunnel in Switzerland over the past eight months, an increase of 30% compared with same period a year ago. On average, 10,400 people cross the Gotthard base tunnel in central Switzerland every day, according to the Federal Railways.

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U.S. Treasuries: Not Really Wrong On Bonds

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
It is often said that the market for US Treasuries is the deepest and most liquid in the world. While that’s true, we have to be careful about what it is we are talking about. There is no single US Treasury market, and often differences can be striking. The most prominent example was, of course, October 15, 2014.

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