Tag Archive: newslettersent

Great Graphic: Two Stories for Two Trend Lines

2018-07-15

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2018-07-15

The Dollar Index made a marginal new high for the year at the end of June a touch below 95.55. It fell through the start of this week when it reached nearly 93.70. With the earlier gains, the Dollar Index briefly traded above the 61.8% retracement of the pullback (~94.85). A move now below 94.20 would be disappointing.

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EU migration into Switzerland down significantly in 2017

2018-07-14

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2018-07-14

Net migration into Switzerland from the EU was down by 11% last year, according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). In 2017, a net 31,250 people from the EU and EFTA moved to Switzerland. And, with a 4% decline in the number arriving over the five months to May 2018, the fall looks set to continue.

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Great Graphic: Is Mr Market Thinking About the First Fed Cut?

2018-07-14

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2018-07-14

EDZ0 Comdty - EDZ9 Comdty, Jan 2017-Jul 2018
The US economy is among the strongest among the large economies. Goosed by the never-fail elixir of tax cuts and spending increases, the US economy is accelerating. Nevertheless, we continue to see the fiscal boost as short-lived, and a recent Fed paper suggested that fiscal stimulus in an upswing may not have the same multiplier as during a downturn.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – (VIDEO)

2018-07-14

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2018-07-14

Economic thoughts and analysis from Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2018: +3.5 YoY, +0.2 MoM

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in June 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products and timber products. Compared with June 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.5%.

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FX Daily, July 13: Trump Trips Sterling, but Greenback Enjoys Broad Gains

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

President Trump weighed in on Brexit and spurred the largest drop in sterling in more than two weeks.  Trump encouraged Brexit, but he indicated he "would have done it much differently" and that he "actually told Theresa May how to do it, but she did not listen."  Trump cautioned that May's plan would mean it would still be too close to the EU and this would "kill" a free-trade deal with the US.  In effect, Trump backed the harder Brexit camp...

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Europe chart of the week – UK GDP growth

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

UK monthly GDP Jun 2016-Jun 2018
Short-term rebound in the UK, driven by services.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published this week a new rolling monthly estimate of UK GDP. The release pointed to a rebound of growth in Q2 (quarterly data will be published on August 8). According to the ONS, the rolling three-month growth to end-May was 0.2%, compared to 0% in the three months to end-April (see chart below).Looking at the details, the services sector (79% of the...

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WIPO crowns Switzerland as world’s most innovative nation

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

Switzerland retained its crown as the world’s most innovative country for the eighth year in a row, according to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) – the global intellectual property agency.

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Buybacks Get All The Macro Hate, But What About Dividends?

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

S&P500 Stock Repurchases 2000-2018
When it comes to the stock market and the corporate cash flow condition, our attention is usually drawn to stock repurchases. With good reason. These controversial uses of scarce internal funds are traditionally argued along the lines of management teams identifying and correcting undervalued shares. History shows, conclusively, that hasn’t really been true.

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Learn about Crypto’s true revolutionary potential

2018-07-12

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2018-07-12

The publication of the Bitcoin white paper immediately after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 is hardly a mere coincidence. The financial collapse especially touched on one crucial question: Money talks, but who talks money if you will? According to Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonym behind Bitcoin, it’s the world’s central and commercial banks which rule over our money.

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FX Daily, July 12: Dollar Remains Firm as Risk Returns

2018-07-12

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2018-07-12

The US dollar rallied yesterday as the escalating trade tensions between the world's top two economies choked off the animal spirits and a marked down in equities and risk assets.  It remains firm today even as risk has come back.  Equities are mostly higher today and bonds lower.  Emerging market currencies, from Turkey to South Africa are firmer, as is the Chinese yuan. 

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Research and Development: Federal Expenses and Staff in 2017

2018-07-12

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2018-07-12

R & D expenditures of the federal government, 2004-2017
In 2017, the Confederation spent CHF 2.2 billion on research and experimental development (R&D). This represents a 7% increase compared with 2015, the year of the previous survey. This is a record amount, mainly paid in the form of contributions to support research activities. Over the same period, Confederation personnel employed in R&D activities declined by 4%, reaching 875 jobs in full-time equivalents.

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Will AI “Change the World” Or Simply Boost Profits?

2018-07-12

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2018-07-12

National Income: Corporate Profits Before Tax 1950-2018
The real battle isn't between a cartoonish vision or a dystopian nightmare--it's between decentralized ownership and control of these technologies and centralized ownership and control. The hype about artificial intelligence (AI) and its cousins Big Data and Machine Learning is ubiquitous, and largely unexamined. AI is going to change the world by freeing humankind from most of its labors, etc. etc. etc.

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Work pension challenge targets age-related unfair dismissals

2018-07-12

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2018-07-12

A lobby group representing the interests of older workers has launched a people’s initiative to reform the occupational pension system to reduce the incentive for employers to sack people once they pass the age of 50.

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FX Daily, July 11: Escalating Trade Tensions Set Tone for Capital Markets

2018-07-11

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2018-07-11

The US took the first step in making good its threat to put a 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods in response to the PRC retaliating for the 25% tariff on $34 bln of its exports. The US provided a list of products that will get the new tariffs after the public comment period is completed at the end of next month. This time the list included numerous consumer goods, like digital cameras, baseball gloves, but have left off popular products, like...

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China’s Seven Years Disinflation

2018-07-11

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2018-07-11

Chinese Money 2009-2014
In early 2011, Chinese consumer prices were soaring. Despite an official government mandate for 3% CPI growth, the country’s main price measure started out the year close to 5% and by June was moving toward 7%. It seemed fitting for the time, no matter how uncomfortable it made PBOC officials. China was going to be growing rapidly even if the rest of the world couldn’t.

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Switzerland files WTO complaint over American steel tariffs

2018-07-11

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2018-07-11

The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has initiated a dispute settlement procedure with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against US steel and aluminium import tariffs. In a statement published on Tuesday, SECO announced that a complaint to this effect had been filed with the WTO because Switzerland was one of the countries affected by the additional import tariffs on certain steel and aluminium products into the US.

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The Gold Sector Remains at an Interesting Juncture

2018-07-11

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2018-07-11

Technical Divergence Successfully Maintained. In an update on gold and gold stocks in mid June, we pointed out that a number of interesting divergences had emerged which traditionally represent a heads-up indicating a trend change is close (see: Divergences Emerge for the details). We did so after a big down day in the gold price, which actually helped set up the bullish divergence; this may have felt counter-intuitive, but these set-ups always do....

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Switzerland Unemployment in June 2018: Up to 2.4percent from 2.3percent, seasonally adjusted up to 2.6percent from 2.5percent

2018-07-10

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2018-07-10

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., Aug 2013 - Jul 2018
Registered unemployment in June 2018 - According to SECO surveys, at the end of June 2018, 106,579 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 2,813 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 2.4% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 27,024 people (-20.2%).

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FX Daily, July 10: May Survives to Fight Another Day, but Sterling’s Recovery Falters

2018-07-10

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2018-07-10

The political obituary of UK's May, who many see as an "accidental" Prime Minister, has been written many times in the past year and a half only to be withdrawn.  Again, it looked like the resignation of two ministers, and a couple of junior ministers was going to spur a leadership challenge. While this still may come to pass, the hard Brexit camp, which has huffed and puffed, simply does not appear to represent a majority of the Tory Party, and...

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