Tag Archive: newslettersent

Abe’s Fiscal Policy: More of the Same

2016-08-02

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2016-08-02

Japan's fiscal stimulus if smaller than it appear and is unlikely to boost the economy as much as officials may think. The problem in Japan is not that interest rates are too high or that pubic investment is too weak. The risk is that the yen strengthens further, and we suggest the dollar may fall toward JPY94.60.

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Silver Kangaroo Coins – Sales Surge To Over 10 Million

2016-08-02

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2016-08-02

Silver kangaroo coins have seen sales surge to over 10 million coins which is double the expected demand for the year. Introduced to the market less than 11 months ago in September 2015 at a launch attended by GoldCore, sales of the new release Perth Mint’s 2016 Australian Kangaroo 1 ounce silver bullion coin were anticipated to reach 5 million coins in their introductory first year.

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Swiss Retail Sales -4.6 percent nominal (YoY) and -3.9 percent real (YoY)

2016-08-02

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2016-08-02

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 4.6% in nominal terms in June 2016 compared with the previous year. The decline has been ongoing since January 2015. This is the largest decline since January 2003. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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FX Daily, August 01: Dog Days of August Begin

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

The US dollar is trading with a small upside bias in narrow trading ranges. The main news has consisted of PMI reports, while investors continue to digest last week's developments. In particular the BOJ's underwhelming response to poor economic data and a missed opportunity to reinforce the fiscal stimulus, and the dismal US GDP.

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Great Graphic: Real Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

The real broad trade-weighted dollar index rose in July for the third month. It peaked in January above trendline drawn through the Reagan and Clinton dollar rallies. Expect the trendline to be violated again before the end of the year.

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No Big Thoughts, but Several Smaller Observations

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

Notable that as the CRB Index moves lower, MSCI emerging market equities have done well. European banks are retreating after the stress test results. Tokyo elected its first women governor as this seem to be in part a sign of protest against Abe.

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The Helicopter Mortgage

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

Medical vs. Financial Engineering. I broke my elbow a month ago, pretty badly as I was told. The surgeon screwed the pieces back together, using a steel alloy bracket and six screws. Two hours later, I left the hospital with no cast, a bandage (just to cover a very ugly scar), a prescription for painkillers and therapy started a week later.

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Switzerland has world’s priciest Big Macs. So eat Swiss chocolate instead.

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

The Economist invented the Big Mac index in 1986 as a tongue-in-cheek guide to currency valuations. Because the well-known burger is the same throughout much of the world, the magazine thought it could be used as a measure of how over or undervalued a currency was. An overpriced burger suggests an overvalued currency and a cheap one an undervalued currency.

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The Dollar Is Going to 1/10,000 Ounce – One Day

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Visions of Tomorrow from the Permanently High Plateau

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

Mad as a Hatter. Somewhere, someone first said “bull markets don’t die of old age.” We suppose this throwaway phrase was first uttered in a time and place much like today. That is, in the midst of a protracted bull market where stock prices had detached from the assets and earnings of companies their shares represent claim to.

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KOF Economic Barometer July: Prospects for the Swiss Economy Remain Favourable

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

The KOF Economic Barometer has only changed little and reached a value of 102.7 in July. In June, and therefore before the referendum in the United Kingdom about its membership in the EU, the KOF Economic Barometer stood at a value of 102.6 (revised from 102.4). Thus the Barometer has been standing above the historical average since February this year. Despite the outcome of the vote in the United Kingdom and various other geopolitical risks, the...

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Greenspan explains negative Swiss Yields

2016-08-01

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2016-08-01

For Alan Greenspan, negative Yield Reflect Spread between Italian and Swiss Bonds. For him, bond prices in general have risen too much.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-07-31

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2016-07-31

EM ended last week on a firm note, helped by the weaker than expected US Q2 GDP report as well as the small bounce in oil. With the RBA and BOE expected to ease this week, the global liquidity backdrop remains favorable for EM and “risk.” US jobs report Friday will be very important for EM going forward. We get our first glimpse of the Chinese economy for July with the PMI readings this week.

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FX Weekly Preview: After this Week, Does August Matter?

2016-07-31

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2016-07-31

RBA meeting is a close call. BOE meeting consensus on rate cut, maybe new QE and lending-for-funding. More details of Japan's fiscal policy. U.S. jobs data. After this week, and outside of RBNZ rate cut, August may be uneventful.

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The Fundamentals behind Gold Price Seasonality

Many know that gold is very volatile in the course of year. Gold prices tend to be low in January and rise between July and November. But what are the fundamental reasons behind this seasonality?

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FX Weekly Review, July 25 – July 29: Dollar Hobbled; Technicals Warn of More Losses

2016-07-31

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2016-07-31

The US dollar advance was stopped in its tracks by the disappointingly weak Q2 GDP figures. The 1.2% annualized growth rate was roughly half of the pace expected. The FOMC statement earlier in the week did not leave the impression that a September hike was likely, and with the poor growth numbers, the odds were downgraded further.

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Weekly Speculative Postions: Speculators Sell European Currency Futures

2016-07-30

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2016-07-30

The euro bears added another 10.3k contracts to their gross short position, which brought it to 221.8k contracts., This is this is the largest grossshort position since early January.

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The FOMC Butterfly that Will Ruin the World

2016-07-30

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2016-07-30

Given the fact that the core CPI is currently over the arbitrarily set 2 per cent target unemployment below what the FOMC regards as full employment and GDP running at a rate far above the Federal Reserve’s own estimates of so-called potential; you would say the Federal Funds rate would be in the vicinity of five per cent.

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Swiss stock market rally loses momentum

2016-07-30

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2016-07-30

The Swiss Market Index and global stock markets failed to extend last week’s rally after the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and gave mixed messages about the global economic outlook.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-07-29

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2016-07-29

Indonesian President Widodo shuffled his cabinet Egypt has requested a three-year $12 bln loan from the IMF Johannesburg Stock Exchange data on investment flows into South Africa was wrong Fitch downgraded South Africa’s local currency rating by one notch to BBB- with a stable outlook Fitch cut its outlook on Colombia's BBB rating from stable to negative

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