by Marc Chandler
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There does not seem to be a large pattern in the speculative position adjustments in the CFTC reporting week ending July 26. There was only one significant position adjustment (10k of more contracts).
Euro
The euro bears added another 10.3k contracts to their gross short position, which brought it to 221.8k contracts. This is this is the largest gross short position since early January. It is the fifth consecutive increase. The speculative gross short position was near 123k contracts in mid-May.
Sterling
Speculators were also keen to sell sterling. It was the second largest gross position adjustment among the currency futures. The gross short position rose by 8k contracts to 110.4k contracts, which is spitting distance of the record high of 111k contracts. The net short position of 80.6k contracts is a record.
Swiss Franc
The 7.4k contract increase in the gross short Swiss franc position, to round out the European currencies, was the third largest speculative position adjustment in the latest reporting period. The gross short position stands at 25.9k contracts.
Yen
Meanwhile, speculators trimmed their gross long yen position for the third consecutive week. The liquidation of 5.8k contracts brings the gross long position to 74.1k contracts, which is the smallest since early-June.
Dollar-bloc currencies
Speculators mostly trimmed positions, reducing both gross longs and gross shorts. The exception the Canadian dollar bulls. They added less than one thousand contracts to bring their gross position to 44k contracts. The sale of 4.6k gross long Australian dollar contracts ended the four-week accumulation period by speculators.
Treasuries
The bears continue to be squeezed out of their short 10-year Treasury note futures. Another 62.2k gross short contracts were covered, leaving 420.9k gross short contracts. At the end of June, the speculative gross short position was nearly 600k contracts. The bulls added another 13.9k contracts to their gross long position, giving them 606.5k contracts. As a consequence of these adjustments to the gross positions, the net long speculative position rose to 185.5k contracts from 109.4k.
Oil Futures
The bulls and bears wanted more action in the oil futures. The bulls took on another 13.7k contracts, giving them a gross long position of 539.3k contracts. The bears sold 30k contracts to bring the gross short position to 266k contracts. In the last couple of weeks, the gross positions were reduced, but the net
position grew. This week the gross positions rose but the net long position slipped by 16.3k contracts to 273.3k contracts.
position grew. This week the gross positions rose but the net long position slipped by 16.3k contracts to 273.3k contracts.
| 26-Jul | Commitment of Traders | |||||
| Net | Prior | Gross Long | Change | Gross Short | ||
| Euro | -112.6 | -99.9 | 109.2 | -2.4 | 221.8 | Change 10.3 |
| Yen | 35.0 | 39.4 | 74.1 | -5.8 | 39.1 | -1.4 |
| Sterling | -80.6 | -74.4 | 29.8 | 1.9 | 110.4 | 8.0 |
| Swiss Franc | 0.9 | 4.7 | 26.8 | 3.6 | 25.9 | 7.4 |
| C$ | 23.2 | 22.1 | 44.0 | 0.9 | 20.8 | -0.2 |
| A$ | 31.5 | 33.4 | 57.1 | -4.8 | 25.6 | -2.6 |
| NZ$ | 0.2 | 2.2 | 26.6 | -2.6 | 26.4 | -0.6 |
| Mexican Peso | -46.6 | -39.4 | 24.1 | -0.6 | 30.7 | 6.6 |
| source: CFTC and Bloomberg in thousands of futures contracts) | ||||||
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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