Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, January 25: A Subdued Start to a Big Week

2021-01-25

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2021-01-25

What promises to be an eventful week has begun off on a mostly subdued note. Asia Pacific equities moved higher, again led by Hong Kong and ostensibly mainland buying. The Hang Seng rose 2.4% to bring this year's gain to 10.75%. South Korea's Kospi also increased by more than 2%, and, so far this month, it is up almost 11.7%. 

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FX Daily, January 22: Faltering Friday

2021-01-22

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2021-01-22

Fear that social restrictions may have to be broadened and extended is helping spur a wave of profit-taking and de-risking, which has also been encouraged by disappointingly high-frequency data. The equity rally seemed to falter a bit in the US, as the S&P 500 eked out a minor 0.03% gain yesterday.

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FX Daily, January 21: It is the ECB’s Turn but Little New to be Said or Done

2021-01-21

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2021-01-21

Overview:  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped higher yesterday to record-levels, and the reflation theme lifted Asia Pacific shares for the third session today.  South Korea, Taiwan, and China led the advance. 

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FX Daily, January 20: The Dollar Slips to New Lows against Sterling and the Mexican Peso

2021-01-20

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2021-01-20

Global equities are moving higher today. Led by continued strong buying of Hong Kong shares, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new highs. The Hang Seng is up 6% this year and is approaching the 2019 record high. Australia's shares set a new record today. Japan and Taiwan bucked the trend.

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FX Daily, January 19: Even When She Speaks Softly, She’s Yellen

2021-01-19

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2021-01-19

Overview: The animal spirits are on the march today.  Equities are mostly higher, peripheral European bonds are firm, and the dollar is mostly softer. After posting the first back-to-back decline this year, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index bounced back today, led by a 2.7% gain in Hong Kong (20-month high) and a 2.6% rise in South Korea's Kospi. 

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FX Daily, January 18: US is on Holiday, but the Dollar has Legs

2021-01-18

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2021-01-18

Overview: The new week has begun like last week ended.  Equities are a bit heavy.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the second session, its first back-to-back loss since before Christmas.  China and Hong Kong were the notable exceptions, perhaps helped by stronger than expected GDP. 

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FX Daily, January 15: The Greenback is Finishing the Week with a Firm Tone

2021-01-15

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2021-01-15

The US dollar is firm against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. Among the majors, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are resilient. For the week, sterling and the yen appear poised to eke out small gains, while the Scandi's are the weakest performers with around a 1% decline.

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FX Daily, January 14: Markets are Subdued Despite Impeachment and Record Chinese Trade Surplus

2021-01-14

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2021-01-14

Overview:  The capital markets are becalmed today. There does not appear to be much reaction to the news that the House of Representatives impeached President Trump an unprecedented second time with greater bipartisan support than previously (10 GOP voted with the Democratic majority). 

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FX Daily, January 13: PBOC Sends Signal as Market Looks Past Impeachment Vote

2021-01-13

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2021-01-13

The US dollar is regaining ground lost in yesterday's setback against the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception. It was toying with the $1.37 area, perhaps helped by the Governor of the Bank of England signal that there still are hurdles to adopting negative interest rates, which the futures market is still discounting for as soon as midyear.

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FX Daily, January 12: Markets Catch Collective Breath

2021-01-12

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2021-01-12

Overview:  The capital markets were stabilizing today after dramatic moves yesterday. Equity markets are recovering, and the dollar is paring yesterday's gains.  Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, though Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia were notable exceptions. 

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FX Daily, January 11: Greenback Extends Recovery

2021-01-11

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2021-01-11

Julius Ceasar is said to have "crossed the Rubicon" on January 10, 49 BCE, taking the 13th Legion into Rome, defying orders from the Senate, and precipitating the Roman Civil Wat that marked the end of the republic and the birth of the empire.

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FX Daily, January 08: Can the Dollar Find Traction Even if the Employment Data Disappoint?

2021-01-08

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2021-01-08

The global equity rally picked up this week as it closed in 2019. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained today and is up in nine of the past 10 sessions. It has fallen only in one week since the end of October. South Korea's Kospi led today's advance with a nearly 4% rally on the back of talks that were later played down between Hyundai and Apple. 

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BBH’s Marc Chandler Calls Bitcoin ‘Inefficient’

2021-01-08

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NEW TRUMP BITCOIN BOT CRACKING LATEST 2021 WORKING!

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FX Daily, January 7: Dollar Bounces after Insurrection Put Down

2021-01-07

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2021-01-07

Overview:  After the National Guard were called to put down an insurrection in Washington, DC, the dollar is having its best day in around a week.  The euro's three-day rally has been halted even though German factory orders surprised on the upside. 

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FX Daily, January 6: High Drama Weighs on the Greenback and Lifts Yields

2021-01-06

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2021-01-06

Overview:  One of the two Georgia Senate contests remains too close to call, but the market appears to be pricing in a Democrat sweep.  The 10-year yield has punched above 1% but has offered the greenback little support.  Yesterday, the dollar-bloc currencies rose to highs since early Q2 2018 and are extending those gains today. 

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FX Daily, January 04: Rising Equities and Slumping Dollar Greet the New Year

2021-01-04

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2021-01-04

Overview:  The first day of the New Year, but it feels a lot like last year.  The dollar is under pressure, and equities are higher.  Outside of Japan and Malaysia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended last week's 3.6% gain. It has not rallied for seven consecutive sessions.

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January Monthly

2021-01-04

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2021-01-04

It might not feel like a New Year, as the pandemic continues to ravage most countries. On top of the human toll, the economic fallout will continue to depress activity in the first part of 2021.  However, policymakers throughout the G7 provided more stimulus in late 2020 and extended many emergency facilities well into the New Year.

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Inflating Inflation Expectations

2020-12-31

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2020-12-31

Rising prices feature in many economic forecasts for the US.  It is seen as part of the reflation meme as the vaccines roll out.  There seem to be three threads to the discussion.  The first is practically mathematically certain.  Economists refer to it as the base effect.  As the pandemic struck and the economy shut down, prices fell.  Headline CPI fell by 0.4% in March 2019, by 0.8% in April, and another 0.1% in May.  The PCE deflator, which the...

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Cool Video: A Look Ahead to 2021

2020-12-24

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2020-12-24

I joined Ben Lichtenstein, host of the morning futures program at TDAmeritrade.  It is in the futures market that I began my career, and where I gained respect for local traders, who do not have a large institutional backing such as a bank or hedge fund, and are trading their own capital, and taking the risk often from those institutional participants. 

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The Dollar’s Evolving Outlook

2020-12-23

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2020-12-23

The foreign exchange market sees an average daily turnover of something on the magnitude of $6.6 trillion a day.  In a week, the turnover is sufficient to more than cover world trade for a year.  It is the largest of the capital markets.  Trends in the currency market can last for years.  

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