Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, October 28: Animal Spirits Called in Sick

2020-10-28

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2020-10-28

Sickened by the surging virus, animal spirits are bed-ridden today. Several European countries are experiencing the most fatalities and illnesses in several months, and policymakers are responded with national restrictions.

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FX Daily, October 27: Markets Take Collective Breath and Beijing Tweaks Fixing Mechanism

2020-10-27

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2020-10-27

The surging pandemic sapped the risk-taking appetites as some investors hunker down for what could be a volatile period ahead.  The S&P 500 lost nearly 3% at its lows before rebounding 1% in late dealings.

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FX Daily, October 26: Troubling Start of the Important Week

2020-10-26

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2020-10-26

The surging virus ravaging large parts of Europe and the United States is fanning concerns over the economic implications as new social restrictions and curfews are announced in several countries. US additional fiscal support remains elusive as aid for states and local governments remains a bone of contention. 

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FX Daily, October 23: Disappointing PMIs may Sharpen ECB’s Dovishness but the Euro Remains Firm

2020-10-23

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2020-10-23

The US dollar is finishing the week on a soft note, falling against all the major currencies. On the week, it is off by at least one percent against most of them, with the Australian and Canadian dollars and Japanese yen, laggards, rising 0.5%-0.75%. 

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FX Daily, October 22: Greenback Stabilizes

2020-10-22

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2020-10-22

Two sets of talks have riveted attention, and both appeared to have made progress yesterday. After some words, the EC, recognizing the importance of UK sovereignty, UK Prime Minister Johnson signaled a resumption of trade talks.

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Is China’s Renminbi About to Dethrone the U.S. Dollar As The World’s Dominant Currency?

2020-10-22

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Join Marc Chandler, Managing Director, Bannockburn Global Forex and Sarwar Kashmeri as they explore the impact on the U.S. of the rise of China's bond market and equity markets, the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi, and China's emergence from COVID-19 with a stunning 4.9% economic growth in the third quarter as the US and EU economies continue to drift.

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FX Daily, October 21: Dollar Slumps as Yields Rise

2020-10-21

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2020-10-21

Overview:  The dollar is falling against most of the world's currencies today, even as long-term yields rise to the most in four months and drags global yields higher.  The US 10-year yield is pushing above 0.80%, and the 30-year is above 1.60%. 

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FX Daily, October 20: Narrowly Mixed Markets as Clearer Direction Sought

2020-10-20

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2020-10-20

The capital markets lack a clear direction today. This is reflected in narrowly mixed equities, bonds, and currencies. The spreading contagion is giving rise to new economic concerns, among other things, and the UK-EU talks are struggling to resume, while Pelosi-Mnuchin talks in the US continue to drag.

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FX Daily, October 19: Sterling Sparkles in Dollar Setback

2020-10-19

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2020-10-19

Investors have not let the surge of the virus or uncertainty over the UK-EU talks or US fiscal stimulus to stand in their way.  Sterling is leading the major currencies higher, returning to the $1.30 area, while global equities are trading higher.

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FX Daily, October 16: Deja Vu All Over Again

2020-10-16

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2020-10-16

It was like deja vu all over again. First, the market reacted immodestly to headlines indicating there was little chance of pre-election fiscal stimulus in the US. It was hardly new news. Then the market seemed to react with surprise that there was no last-minute breakthrough in the UK-EU trade negotiations.

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FX Daily, October 15: Markets Shake and Dollar Goes Bid

2020-10-15

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2020-10-15

A combination of the surging virus, threatening the slow recovery that was already losing momentum, the lack of new stimulus in the US, and market positioning is seeing risk unwind in a big way today.  Equities are selling off. 

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FX Daily, October 14: UK Blinks on Threat to Walk Away on Eve of EU Summit

2020-10-14

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2020-10-14

Overview: Turn around Tuesday saw the dollar bounce, particularly against the Australian dollar and European currencies, among the majors.  Sterling pared earlier losses on reports that the UK would not walk away from the talks just yet, while the euro remains on its back foot.

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FX Daily, October 13: Markets Look for Fresh Incentives

2020-10-13

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2020-10-13

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped higher for the third consecutive session and continued to advance. The benchmarks reached their best level since early September. Hong Kong markets were closed due to a storm, but the MSCI Asia Pacific gained for the seventh consecutive session. Most markets were higher, though Taiwan and South Korea were exceptions.

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FX Daily, October 12: Yuan in Spotlight in Consolidative Session

2020-10-12

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2020-10-12

Led by 2-3% gains in Hong Kong and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the sixth consecutive session is pressing against the high for the year. European stocks are firmer, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 0.5% near midday, and shares are also trading firmer.

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FX Daily, October 9: Animal Spirits Return

2020-10-09

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2020-10-09

Overview:  The on-again-off-again fiscal stimulus in the US is back on as the White House now supports a broad stimulus program, but not as big as the Democrats $2.2 trillion package.  It is the narrative being cited as the rebuilding of risk appetites is the wobble earlier in the week. 

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FX Daily, October 08: Markets Catch Collective Breath

2020-10-08

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2020-10-08

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at their highest levels in around a month yesterday, recouping Tuesday's presidential tweet-driven drop. We thought the market overreacted to the end of the fiscal talks as many had already recognized that a stimulus agreement was unlikely before the election, but the near round-trip seen in stocks and bonds was surprising.

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FX Daily, October 07: The Day After

2020-10-07

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2020-10-07

President Trump's tweet announced that negotiations with the House Democrat leadership had collapsed, and there will be no further talks until after the election. Many economists had been removing it from their Q4 GDP projections, but the market was caught wrongfooted. Risk came off.

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FX Daily, October 6: The Dollar Tests Key Supports and Pauses

2020-10-06

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2020-10-06

Market moves have stalled.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index did manage to extend Monday's gains, but other markets are heavier.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance.  The communications sector is the sole standout, though financials and energy are little changed.

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FX Daily, October 05: Monday’s Dollar Blues

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

New actions to contain the virus are being taken in the US and Europe, but investors are looking past it and taking equities and risk assets, in general, higher to start the new week. MSCI Asia Pacific recouped most of last week's 0.7% loss with gains of move than 1% in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia.

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October Monthly

2020-10-03

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2020-10-03

After falling in July and August, the US dollar strengthened against most of the major currencies in September.  The dramatic pullback in equities seemed to have undergirded the yen's resilience, which gained a net 0.25% against the dollar.

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