Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

FX Daily, June 22: Dollar Begins Week on Back Foot

Overview: Investors begin the new week, perhaps slowed a bit by the weekend developments and the growth of new infections. Equities are mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance, though India bucked the regional trend and gained 1%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is recovering from an early dip to four-day lows. US shares are trading higher after the S&P 500 closed below 3100 ahead of the weekend after reaching 3155.

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Marc Chandler on Economic recovery and Jackie On Chinese ADRs (Chinese)

Mr. Chandler of Bannockburn explains the economic recovery and consumer spending, as well as the Fed's effort to call on Congress to act sooner rather than later. Jackie expresses her own view on Chinese ADR's future on listing in the US.( Chinese)

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FX Daily, June 17: Correction Phase does not Appear Over

Overview:  Investors have not yet completely shaken off the angst that saw equities slide last week.  All equity markets in the Asia Pacific region, but Japan, edged higher today, including China, India, and South Korea, where political/military tensions are elevated.  Europe followed suit, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm near yesterday's highs. It has entered but not yet filled the gap created by the sharply lower opening on June 11.

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FX Daily, June 16: Correction Scenario Tested

Overview: Shortly after the US stock market opened sharply lower, the Federal Reserve announced that it's Main Street facility was up and running. US stocks never looked back. After the S&P 500 recouped its full decline, the Fed announced it would begin buying corporate bonds. Up until now, it had been buying representative ETFs. Stocks rallied further on the news before pulling back into the close. The rally in risk assets carried into Asia.

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FX Daily, June 15: Unwind Continues

Overview: The swing in the pendulum of market sentiment toward fear from greed began last week and has carried over into today's activity.  Global equities are getting mauled.  In the Asia Pacific region, no market was spared as the Nikkei's 3.5% drop, and South Korea's 4.7% fall led the way.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx  600 is recovering from a more than two percent early loss,  as it drops for the fifth time in the past six sessions.

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Cool Video: A Quick Review of the the FOMC and a Look to Next Week

Sometimes the news drives the price action, but sometimes the price action drives the news.  If the initial rally in US stocks after the FOMC meeting had been sustained and if the dollar had continued to decline, observers would drawing a different conclusion.  

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FX Daily, June 12: Licking Yesterday’s Wounds Today

Overview:  The nearly three-month rally in risk assets ended with high drama with a stomach-churning almost 6% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday. Follow-through selling was seen in the Asia Pacific region, but most markets recovered from their lows, and although losses were still recorded, the downside momentum seemed broken. The same holds true for Europe. Bourses opened lower but by mid-morning had moved higher (~1.4%) and US shares are trading...

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Marc Chandler, Chief Strategist at Bannockburn



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FX Daily, June 11: Are Risk Appetites Satiated, or Simply Taking the Day Off?

Many observers are attributing the sell-off in risk assets today to the Federal Reserve's pessimistic outlook, yet, as we note below, the Fed's median GDP forecast this year is better than many international agency forecasts, including the OECD's that was issued yesterday.  Moreover, some near-term trends were already in place.

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FX Daily, June 10: Corrective Forces Still Seem in Control Ahead of the FOMC Outcome

The pullback ins US shares yesterday has not derailed the global advance. Japanese and Chinese markets were mixed, the Hang Seng slipped, and Indonesia was hit with profit-taking, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a small gain. It has fallen once past two and a half weeks. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 opened higher but is falling for the third consecutive session.

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FX Daily, June 9: Profit-Taking Gives Turn Around Tuesday Its Name

Overview: The S&P 500 turning higher on the year was the last straw before an arguably overdue bout of profit-taking kicked-in and is the dominant feature today in the capital markets.  It began slowly in the Asia Pacific region. Equities were mixed, and Australia's 2.4% rally and the 1.6% gain in Hong Kong stood out.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was off for a second day (~1.3%), and US stocks are trading heavily, warning that the S&P 500 may give...

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Cool Video: The Liquidity Hypothesis

Jackie Pang from Meigu TV called and wanted to talk about the seeming disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. In this nearly 4.5 minute clip that she posted here, she gave me plenty of time to explain what I make of it. 

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FX Daily, June 5: Greenback Remains Soft Ahead of Employment Report, but Reversal Possible

The modest loss in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday did not signal the end of the bull run. All the markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, with the Hang Seng among the strongest with a 1.6% advance that brought the week's gain to around 7.8%. South Korea's Kospi was not far behind with a weekly gain of 7.5%.  In the past two weeks, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up nearly 10%. 

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FX Daily, June 4: Risk Taking Pauses Ahead of the ECB

Overview: After several days of aggressive risk-taking, investors are pausing ahead of the ECB meeting.  Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though China was mixed, and Indian shares slipped.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day advance, and US shares are trading with a heavier bias. The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday, and that gap (~3081-3099) offers technical support.

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Liquidity Supporting the Market

Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex

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FX Daily, June 3: Dollar is Sold and ROW is bought

Overview: Two recent trends continue.  Equities are moving higher, and the dollar remains heavy.  Equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose at least one percent, and South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia rallied 2-3%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up more than 1% for the third consecutive session.  US shares are trading higher and are poised to extend their recent run.

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FX Daily, June 2: Greenback’s Slide Continues

Overview: Liquidity trumps everything else.  US equities shrugged off the national guard being called into action in nearly a third of US states, and the S&P 500 closed yesterday at nearly three-month highs. Asia Pacific markets followed suit.  Most markets in the region rose by more than 1%. The notable exceptions were Australia and China, where benchmarks rose by 0.2%-0.3%. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up more than 1% in the European morning.

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June Monthly

The investment climate in June will be shaped by forces that emerged in May.  Many countries began relaxing lockdowns and various activity-based alternative data, like traffic pattern, Open Table Reservations showed improvement on the margins.  Sentiment surveys, while mostly still depressed, were better than April readings.  The long slog back has begun. 

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FX Daily, June 1: US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning

Overview: US stocks extended their gains ahead of the weekend after President Trump shied away from specific actions against China-Hong Kong, and today Hong Kong shares recovered smartly from last week's 3.6% slide. The Hang Seng rose 3.3% today, and the Shanghai Composite gained over 2%. All the markets in the region advanced. Europea's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was up about 0.5% in late morning turnover, which would be the fifth gain in six sessions. ...

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