Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership

2026-05-01

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2026-05-01

In holiday-thinned markets, the dollar is mostly softer as North American leadership is awaited.  In light of yesterday’s surge in the yen, and contrary to our expectation, it does appear that Japanese officials materially intervened yesterday. The intervention may have been for around $34.5 bln (~JPY5.4 trillion), which if accurate, would be larger than the …

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The Yen Recovers on Verbal Intervention

2026-04-30

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2026-04-30

The North American market understood yesterday’s Fed statement and the three dissents in favor of a neutral bias as a hawkish hold and rallied the dollar in response. Follow-through selling today has been minimal and the greenback is sporting a softer profile. The strongest currency today is the Japanese yen, which had fallen to its …

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Euro and ECB

2026-04-29

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2026-04-29

The euro' fell nearly 1.65% in Q1, only to claw back about 1.25% in April. At one level, that looks like noise within a broader range. At another, it reflects a market that has been repeatedly and abruptly forced to reprice the policy outlook in response to shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic crosscurrents.The ECB meets tomorrow, … Continue...

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Oil Prices Advance Ahead of What Will likely be Powell’s Last FOMC Meeting (as Chair)

2026-04-29

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2026-04-29

There are two dominant issues today. First, the ceasefire in the Middle East continues, but the blockade of Iran is an act of war, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked even if there are some reports that a few ships have managed to transit it. July Brent is at new contract highs and June … Continue reading...

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Three Dissents in Favor of a Rate Hike Fail to Support the Yen

2026-04-28

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2026-04-28

The markets seem nervous. The dollar is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies. June WTI, which was at $82.60 on April 17, is now pushing against $100. July Brent, which was at $86.50, is now approaching $105. Both are up for the sixth session of the past seven. Equities and … Continue...

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New Iranian Proposal Helps Bolster Risk Appetites

2026-04-27

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2026-04-27

The breakdown of talks between the US and Iran initially warned of a risk-off session, but a new Iranian proposal appears to have revived the hopes of a resolution. The US dollar is trading softer and equities in Asia Pacific and Europe rose while bond yields were under pressure. The front month crude oil contracts …

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May 2026 Monthly

2026-04-25

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2026-04-25

The global capital markets will enter May with a sense of transition rather than resolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, nor the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan meet in the month ahead. The market is inclined to see the third consecutive hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia but the other G10 central … Continue reading »

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Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?

2026-04-18

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2026-04-18

(No daily note this week while I am on a business trip but the May monthly will drop April 24. Thanks for your patience.)Progress in US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon fed investor optimism. The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with multi-week rallies in tow. June WTI tumbled …

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Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP

2026-04-16

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2026-04-16

(A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May monthly note will drop on April 25.  Thank you for your patience, and good luck). The Dollar Index did not snap its losing streak yesterday but extended it for its …

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The Greenback is Poised to Snap Losing Streak

2026-04-15

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2026-04-15

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a seven-day decline. President Trump has held out the possibility that the “war is close to over”. Yet the improved risk appetites in recent days reflects the market anticipating this. A new round of US-Iran negotiations could begin as …

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Optimism Weighs on the Greenback

2026-04-14

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2026-04-14

North American participants shrugged off the pessimism seen in Asia Pacific and Europe yesterday after the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend. The optimism was contagious and reports that another round of negotiations are being contemplated during the ceasefire that expires next week. The dollar is broadly weaker. Global equities and bonds have rallied …

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Restrained Risk-Off

2026-04-13

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2026-04-13

The collapse of US-Iran negotiations and the US threat to blockage Iranian ports presents an escalation in the conflict that the market’s did not anticipate. Equities and bonds are lower, and the dollar is mostly firmer. However, so far, the moves appear restrained. Iranian oil has largely been shipped to China and with the Trump-Xi …

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Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal

2026-04-11

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2026-04-11

Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans and Scandis, which seem the most sensitive to growth prospects and the risk … Continue reading...

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G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly consolidative. Equities were higher in the Asia Pacific region, with a few exceptions, and in Europe. Bond yields are firmer. Both WTI and Brent crude …

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Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday’s Enthusiasm

2026-04-09

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2026-04-09

It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different. At the same time, Israel’s action in Lebanon complicates the situation and there is some dispute whether it was covered by the ceasefire. President Trump …

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Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits

2026-04-08

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2026-04-08

Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about 13% lower. The US dollar is weaker against all the G10 and emerging market currencies that are trading. The … Continue reading...

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On the Edge of the Abyss

2026-04-07

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2026-04-07

The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are +/- less than 0.2%. Investors remain on edge ahead the US ultimatum deadline, which is in the Asia Pacific session today. … Continue reading...

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Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum

2026-04-06

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2026-04-06

The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and the escalation of US rhetoric. However, negotiations, apparently led by Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye for a 45-day cease fire, have …

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Week Ahead: It’s Still Mostly about the War

2026-04-04

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2026-04-04

The Middle East war remains the dominant fundamental condition. There continues to be some indication that market participants are hopeful of a resolution soon. The May WTI contract settled near $111.55 last week, which appears to build in the risk of near-term escalation, but the June contract settled close to $98. The September contract is …

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Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar’s Narrow Ranges

2026-04-03

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2026-04-03

The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind by Tehran, and this will serve to keep risk appetites in check ahead of the weekend. Many centers will be closed on Monday, as well. The main interest today is with …

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