Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Dollar Becalmed, Gold Softer, Oil Firmer

2025-06-17

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2025-06-17

The latest phase of the Israel-Iran conflict continues and the impact on the markets remains minimal. Oil prices are elevated, but private insurance seems to be slowing traffic in the Straits of Hormuz more than the direct results of a blockade that Tehran appeared to have threatened.

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Investors Take Israel-Iran Conflict in Stride: Gold, Oil, and the Dollar are Softer

2025-06-16

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2025-06-16

Overview:  After inflicting damage on Iran's proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah), Israel turned to Iran itself following the IAEA's finding that Tehran was in violation of its uranium-enrichment targets. The war continues. The US reportedly helped Israel shoot down missiles aimed at it, but so far Russia, which signed a defense pact with Iran earlier this …

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Week Ahead: Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Central Banks

2025-06-14

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2025-06-14

The response of the US dollar and Treasuries to Israel's attack on Iran and the palatable risk of escalation was uninspiring. It supports the popular narrative about the changing role of the US dollar and assets in the world economy. US stocks and bond sold off ahead of the weekend. It should not be regarded … Continue...

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Israel’s Strike Lifts Dollar but only Modestly, Gold and Oil Rally

2025-06-13

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2025-06-13

Overview: Israel attacked Iranian nuclear enrichment site and apparently targeted scientists and top Revolutionary Guard leadership. Reports suggest that that no increase in radioactivity has been detected. The US quickly indicated that while it was informed of the attack, it did not authorize it. President Trump did warn of a possible strike, but the press …

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Can’t See the Risk-Off by Looking at the Dollar or Gold

2025-06-12

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2025-06-12

Overview: The combination of President Trump's renewed threat to send letters to announce the new bilateral tariff letters and the heightened tensions with Iran have spurred risk-off forces but they have not been expressed, as often is the case, with a stronger dollar and a surge in gold. The greenback is softer against nearly all …

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Ho-Hum Market Reaction to US-China Agreement: US CPI and 10-year Note Auction Next Up

2025-06-11

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2025-06-11

Overview: The dollar is mostly a little firmer against the G10 currencies, though the euro and Swiss franc are notable exceptions but barely. US and Chinese negotiators have reportedly reached a joint understanding of the Geneva Agreement, but the impact on the foreign exchange market appears marginal at best. The dollar's consolidative tone against the …

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Dollar Stabilizes while Sterling Slides after Disappointing Jobs Report

2025-06-10

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2025-06-10

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against the G10 currencies with the disappointing UK jobs data weighing on sterling the most. It is off about 0.5% in late morning European activity. The greenback is more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Mexican peso, which reached new highs for the year yesterday is …

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Dollar Unwinds Jobs Report Gains

2025-06-09

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2025-06-09

Overview: Despite the US jobs report, which was considerably better than the fears induced by the ADP estimate and the gradually rising jobless claims, and apparent resumption of China's rare earth exports to US (and European) auto makers, Asia and European participants sold into the dollar's gains they inherited. The greenback has largely unwound its …

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Week Ahead: Stable Unemployment + Firm CPI = USD Recovery?

2025-06-07

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2025-06-07

Last week, the US dollar fell to new lows for the year against half the G10 currencies, including sterling, the Norwegian krone, and Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars. A key question is whether it is a breakout and a signal that ana acceleration of the dollar's decline is at hand. On balance, and within …

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Dollar Better Bid Ahead of Jobs Report as Japanese and German Data Disappoint, but Will it be Sustained?

2025-06-06

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2025-06-06

Overview:  It is not clear what happened yesterday, the first time US and Chinese leaders have spoken since the inauguration. The US readout suggests trade was only discussed and a deal on the rare earths was reached. China's readout included an expression of concern about US planned arms sales to Taiwan and the need for …

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Euro Trades Quietly Ahead of the ECB’s Rate Cut

2025-06-05

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2025-06-05

Overview:  The dollar is mostly softer today in narrow trading ranges, though it is firmer against the yen and Swiss franc. The weakness of US data (ADP, ISM services, and anecdotal Beige Book) lifted the market confidence of at least two Fed cuts this year. Most emerging market currencies are also trading higher against the …

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Squawk Box Clip: Another 5% Down in the Dollar Index This Year

2025-06-04

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2025-06-04

I had a privilege of joining Becky Quick on CNBC's Squawk Box to talk about the dollar.  I  suggested there may be scope for the Dollar Index to fall another 5% over the remainder of the year.  I am not so focused on the dollar losing its reserve currency status but cyclical developments.  The Fed …

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Hump Day Consolidation in Forex

2025-06-04

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2025-06-04

Overview: The dollar was better bid yesterday in North America after the better-than-expected JOLTS report, but it has come back offered today. Still, the general tone is one of consolidation. The greenback is a little softer against the most G10 currencies and all but a handful of emerging market currencies. Meanwhile, most of the final …

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Tuesday: US Dollar Stabilizes but Hardly Turns Around

2025-06-03

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2025-06-03

Overview: The US dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies, but its gains have been muted, and "consolidation" better characterizes the price action. What were seen as dovish central bank minutes has dragged the Australian dollar down the most among the major currencies, and it is off a little more than 0.5%. The Canadian …

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Markets Rattled to Start the New Month Amid Heightened Trade Tensions

2025-06-02

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2025-06-02

Overview: The breakdown in the US-China trade agreement, the doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and Ukraine's daring drone attack have rattled market, sending stock, bonds, and the dollar lower. All the G10 currencies are up by at least 0.35%, with the Scandis leading the way up by more than 1%. Although the Canadian …

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June 2025 Monthly

2025-05-31

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2025-05-31

Navigating the global economy and managing capital market volatility has always posed challenges, but the uncertainties emanating from Washington make this task exceptionally treacherous. The so-called reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 were postponed for 90 days just one week later, ostensibly to usher in a period of intensive negotiations. Yet a few weeks into …

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On-Again Off-Again US Tariffs are Back

2025-05-30

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2025-05-30

Overview: The on-again, off-again US tariffs are back on, but the judicial process is not over. On top of that, US Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged what many have suspected:  US-Chinese talks have stalled. The dollar, which was offered yesterday, has come back bid today. It is up against nearly all the G10 currencies. The yen …

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US Trade Court Roils Markets: Trump Administration to Appeal

2025-05-29

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2025-05-29

Overview: There is one driver today. The US Court of International Trade ruled against the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The court rules that the 1977 law used to justify the actions did not apply. The ruling also applies to the earlier tariffs on security of the US borders and fentanyl trafficking. The dollar initially …

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Consumer Confidence Dollar Boost Fades

2025-05-28

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2025-05-28

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies. Ironically, the New Zealand dollar is the strongest following the widely expected quarter-point cut by the central bank. The Canadian dollar is the laggard, the only G10 currency not to have found traction against the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are also enjoying …

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Japan Sparks Turn Around Tuesday’s Dollar Short-Covering

2025-05-27

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2025-05-27

Overview: Speculation that Japan will take measures to stem the rout in the government bond market has helped spur a short-covering bounce in the dollar after finished last week poorly and sold off yesterday. There has been a sharp drop in Japanese long-term bond yields, and although the dollar is higher against all the G10 …

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