Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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The Dollar and Oil are Bid

2026-03-27

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2026-03-27

The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days (April 6). At the same time, reports indicate the US is considering sending more troops to the area. The logic of … Continue reading »

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Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken

2026-03-26

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2026-03-26

The US dollar is trading in narrow trading ranges against the G10 currencies today, but the calm in the foreign exchange market belies stress in other parts of the capital markets. Equities and bonds have been sold. The hope that an end to the Middle East conflict has faltered amid the conflicting signals from the …

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Thoughts on the Dollar

2026-03-25

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2026-03-25

The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35% slide. Against every G10 currency, the greenback has advanced since hostilities commenced. All but the Canadian dollar and sterling …

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Hope Lifts Stocks and Bonds

2026-03-25

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2026-03-25

There continues to be hope in the capital and commodity markets that a US-Israel war on Iran can be brought to a conclusion soon. While news reports indicate that the US had drafted a 15-point peace plan that has been delivered to Iran via Pakistan, other reports indicate that US is sending more people and … Continue reading »

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Yesterday’s Optimism Turns More Guarded

2026-03-24

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2026-03-24

The markets remain on edge. President Trump’s five-day hiatus announced yesterday is looked upon suspiciously. Much of what has been claimed seems to be part of the psych-operations associated with warfare, like initiating the war during negotiations. Many seem to share our sense that the five-day period will allow more US troops to enter the …

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Threat of Massive Escalation of the War Drags Financial Markets Lower, While Lifting the Greenback

2026-03-23

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2026-03-23

After seemingly teasing the market ahead of the weekend that he was considering “winding down” military operations, President Trump issued Iran an ultimatum that threatens to escalate the conflict. He issued a 48-hour ultimatum that appears to expire around 7:45 pm ET today that if the Strait of Hormuz is not open, Iranian power plants …

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Week Ahead: The War and Anticipated Policy Responses Drive the Capital Markets

2026-03-21

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2026-03-21

There are two main drivers in the foreign exchange market: war and the anticipated monetary policy response. May WTI peaked on March 9 near $113.40. Last week, the average close was a little below $95. Brent has been hit harder but it also peaked on March 9 (~$119.50), The five-day average close is about $105.50. …

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USD Comes Back Bid after Yesterday’s Exaggerated Slide

2026-03-20

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2026-03-20

The market seemed to overreact to the central bank meetings this week. The market heard Fed Chair Powell as more hawkish than the FOMC statement and took the dollar sharply higher. Yesterday, it overreacted to the Bank of England and European Central Banks and sold the greenback aggressively. The swaps market is discounting three rate …

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Limited Follow-Through Dollar Today After Yesterday’s Surge

2026-03-19

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2026-03-19

The US dollar rallied strongly during the Federal Reserve’s press conference yesterday as rates jumped in response to what was widely seen as a hawkish hold, especially given Chair Powell’s framing. There has been limited follow-through dollar sales today, but the technical damage inflicted on many pairs has not been reversed. The Bank of Japan, …

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Hope Lifts Risk Appetites Ahead of the Bank of Canada and FOMC Meetings

2026-03-18

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2026-03-18

There are three main talking points today. The first is the war. While it continues to rage, more oil is reportedly moving through the Strait of Hormuz and pipelines that bypass the choke point entirely. President Trump is again holding out the possibility that the war ends shortly. Second, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi is in …

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RBA Hikes in a 5-4 Decision, Trump-Xi Meeting Postponed, Beijing Tightens Restrictions on Fertilizer

2026-03-17

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2026-03-17

There have been three developments to note. First, President Trump’s trip to China has been postponed by at least a month. The White House linked it to the war efforts, but earlier reports claimed Chinese officials were disappointed with the lack of progress in the preparatory efforts. The US administration also appeared to warn the …

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Precarious Calm in the Capital Markets, with a Softer Greenback

2026-03-16

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2026-03-16

The war continues to dominate, but the dollar is trading lower against the G10 currencies. April WTI is trading in around a $3 range on both sides of $99 a barrel. US and European benchmark 10-year yields are a little softer. If the markets seem calmer, recognize that it is precarious as the fog of … Continue...

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Week Ahead: Eight of the G10 Central Banks Meet, Maybe One Moves

2026-03-14

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2026-03-14

The Middle East War dominates the investment climate. The inflationary implications are first order considerations and there has been a large swing in expectations of central bank policy this year. Japan is a notable exception as the swaps market continues to discount almost two hikes this year. Eight of the G10 central banks meet in …

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The War Rages On; Equities and Bonds Don’t Like It,

2026-03-13

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2026-03-13

The war and rhetoric around it keep investors on edge, even though WTI and Brent are consolidating now after reaching marginal new four-day highs. The greenback is firm against the G10 currencies. Disappointing UK January GDP has weighed on sterling, whose 0.65% loss leads the majors. The proximity of the JPY160 level may be encouraging …

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The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move

2026-03-12

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2026-03-12

The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace and composition. Moreover, the markets’ understanding of the disruption is well beyond oil and includes gas, fertilizer, sulfur, and urea. Adding to the geo-economic morass, late …

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Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider

2026-03-11

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2026-03-11

The dollar is mixed as the North American session is about to begin. Heightened expectations of a rate hike next week have lifted the Australian dollar to new highs since June 2022. The Japanese yen is the weakest of the G10 currencies as the dollar extended yesterday’s gains to almost JPY158.50, its best level since …

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Investors Find Hope in the Fog of War

2026-03-10

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2026-03-10

The markets have put much stock in President Trump’s signal that the war on Iran may be nearly over. News today suggests that the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly blocked and several European countries have committed more military hardware to defend the UAE. In the fog of war, public pronouncements are part of the war … Continue...

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Capital Markets Remain Unsettled with Oil Above $100

2026-03-09

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2026-03-09

The Middle East war continues to dominate the investment environment. The dollar is firm. Equities are lower. Yields are higher. The disruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing oil producers to shut down output due to limited storage capacity. Sulfur and urea supplies are also being disrupted, as is natural gas and …

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Week Ahead: War and More War

2026-03-07

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2026-03-07

The Middle East war changes everything. And President Trump's demand for an unconditional surrender makes a near-term off-ramp more difficult to envision. Moreover, the impact ripples through a wide swath the global economy. Food is very oil and gas intensive, taking into account transportation, fertilizer, and pesticides. Worker remittances are important to many developing nations …

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War Continues to Roil the Markets

2026-03-06

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2026-03-06

The war continues to disrupt the global capital markets. The US dollar remains firm though mostly within the ranges seen in recent days. It is threatening to break higher against the Japanese yen, where the JPY158 level is coming under pressure. Still, the yen, despite Japan’s reliance on imported oil and refined products is the …

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