Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Japan Confirms Intervention, China’s PMI Disappoints, EMU CPI Firms, Ahead of US PCE Deflator

2024-05-31

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a disappointing...

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Dollar Pulled Back in Europe. New Buying Opportunity?

2024-05-30

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-30

Overview: The dollar initially extended yesterday's North American recovery but unwound most of the gains in the European morning. As North American dealers return, the greenback is lower against most of the G10 currencies. After approaching levels believed to have been where the BOJ last intervened, profit-taking pushed the dollar back to a marginal new low for the week (~JPY156.55). The yen's recovery arguably helped the Chinese yuan rise for the...

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Stocks and Bonds Retreat; Greenback Extends Recovery but Little Changed Ahead of North American Session

2024-05-29

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-29

Overview: Stocks and bonds are lower today, and the dollar is slightly firmer having extended yesterday's recovery. Most of the G10 currencies are lower, though the Japanese yen has recovered from after falling to its lowest level since May 1. Slightly softer than expected German states' CPI did the euro no favors. It was sold to a three-day low near $1.0830 before stabilizing. Sterling steadied after dipping briefly below $1.2750. Most emerging...

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The Greenback is Mostly Softer

2024-05-28

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-28

Overview: The dollar initially extended its pre-weekend and yesterday's heavier tone before finding a better bid in the European morning. Still, as North American dealers return to their posts the dollar is still mostly softer against the G10 currencies, but it is little changed to slightly firmer against the Japanese yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, but the South African rand is softer ahead of their election, the Mexican peso is...

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Holiday Overview: The State of Play

2024-05-27

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-27

FX: The dollar traded mostly higher last week. I suspect more near-term gains, but I am less convinced than I was a week ago. Given the FOMC minutes and more recent commentary from Fed officials, I suspect the market is exaggerating the chances of two cuts this year. That had been my leaning too, but I think the recent resilience of the labor market and sticky inflation has shifted the views at the Fed. The...

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Calmer Markets Ahead of the Weekend

2024-05-24

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-24

Overview: The dollar is paring yesterday's advance that was spurred by the rise in US rates following the preliminary PMI, which reached its best level in two years. The survey also picked up higher prices. The dollar is in narrow trading ranges but softer against nearly all the G10 currencies today. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are laggards. Despite a large disappointing miss on UK retail sales, sterling has steadied after falling yesterday...

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After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer

2024-05-23

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-23

Overview: The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is...

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UK CPI Disappoints

2024-05-22

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-22

Overview: A hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a firmer than expected UK CPI reading have allowed the New Zealand dollar and sterling to show resilience in the face of the US dollar's broadly firmer tone. And even there, the Kiwi and pound have seen their early gains pared. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies today and has fallen to a new 12-month low against the euro. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Central...

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Consolidative Tuesday

2024-05-21

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-21

Overview: The dollar is consolidating but with a somewhat heavier bias today. The G10 currencies are firmer but for the New Zealand and Canadian dollars, which are slightly softer. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer, except for a handful of Asian currencies. The news steam is light. Equities are trading off. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a seven-day rally, and Hong Kong shares and the mainland shares that trade there led the...

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Jump in Japanese Bond Yields Fails to Lift the Yen

2024-05-20

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-20

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. Most of the G10 currencies are +/- 0.1% against the dollar. The crash that took the of Iran's president and foreign minister may have helped lift gold to new record highs ($2450), the impact seems more muted, as poor weather rather than foul play, seems to be main narrative. July WTI reached nearly $80, its best level since May 1 but is hovering around unchanged levels (~$79.50). Canadian markets are...

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The Dollar Continues To Recover

2024-05-17

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-17

Overview: The dollar's recovery begun yesterday has extended into today's activity. The greenback is higher against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies, but the Indian rupee and Mexican peso. The BOJ did not reduce its bond buying at today's operation and the market sold the yen on the news. After reaching JPY153.60 yesterday, the greenback is near JPY156 now. New initiatives to support the beleaguered property market was not...

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After Limited Follow-Through Selling, the Dollar has Come Back Bid

2024-05-16

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-16

Overview: Three of the G10 currencies rose by more than 1% against the US dollar yesterday after the softer inflation and weak retail sales readings. The Dollar Index lost almost 0.65% yesterday, the most this year. Among emerging market currencies, only the Mexican and Chilean pesos rose by at least 1%. After extending its losses against most of the major pairs, the dollar has come back bid. Only the yen and Swiss franc are firmer on the day. The...

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Will USD be Bought on the Fact after Being Sold on Expectations of a Softer CPI?

2024-05-15

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-15

Overview: The dollar is trading heavily against the G10 currencies and most of the currencies from emerging markets. The market expects softer US CPI (and retail sales) today. Any decline in the year-over-year core rate would put it at its lowest level since April 2021. Still, this has been anticipated, and the market seems vulnerable to "sell the rumor, buy the fact" type of activity. After all, the Fed will see another employment and...

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Powell, PPI, and US Tariff Announcement on China Featured

2024-05-14

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-14

Overview: The tone in the foreign exchange market today is mostly consolidative. The two notable exceptions are the yen and yuan. Despite higher JGBs yields amid speculation that the BOJ will scale back bond purchases, as it did yesterday, to support the yen, the greenback is at its best level since the suspected intervention. The next important technical area is near JPY157.00. The US is set to announce a new set of tariffs on a wide range of...

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Consolidative Tone to Start the Week

2024-05-13

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-13

Overview: The new week has begun off quietly. The dollar is in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies, +/- 0.15% as the North American market prepares to open. The Dollar Index is trading inside the narrow pre-weekend range. With softer US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production due this week, we have a downside bias for the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are firmer. A few Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan and...

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Riksbank Cuts, Oil Slips, and the Yen Remains Under Pressure

2024-05-08

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-08

(On business trip over next few days. Commentary to resume Monday. Thanks for your patience.) Overview: Sweden's Riksbank became the second G10 central bank to cut rates this year. The Swiss National Bank cut its deposit rate in March. A couple other large central banks, including the European Central Bank, and possibly the Bank of Canada, may cut rates next month. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G10 currencies today, off by about 0.45%,...

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Market Pushes the Yen Lower, Helped by a Broadly Firmer Greenback

2024-05-07

by Marc Chandler

2024-05-07

Overview: The dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies today. The market is somewhat less fearful of intervention and the yen is extending yesterday's losses. It is rivaling the Australian dollar for the weakest of the major currencies after the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold and played down speculation of possibility of a rate hike. Both currencies are off around 0.4% in late European morning turnover. Disappointing German...

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