Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market
Markets Calm after Dramatic Swings on Powell’s Comments
The US dollar is mostly trading with a downside bias today against the G10 and most emerging market currencies. It had begun the week extending the gains spurred by the dramatic jump in nonfarm payrolls and the strong ISM services survey. Market expectations for the trajectory of Fed policy in the first part of this year converged with the Fed's December dot plot. The market now leans toward two more quarter-point hikes this year.
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No Turn Around, but Consolidation Featured
Overview:ย ย After large moves yesterday, the capital
markets ae quieter today. Stocks are mostly firmer, and the 10-year US yield is
a little softer near 3.62%. Strong nominal wage increases in Japan and a
hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia helped their respectively
currencies recover, though remain within yesterday's ranges. The euro briefly
traded below $1.07, and sterling has been sold through $1.20. That said, a
consolidative tone is...
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Greenback Extends Recovery
Overview:ย The honeymoon for risk assets that began
the year ended with a bang at the end of last week with the monster US jobs
report and the rebound in the service ISM. Disappointing news from several large
US tech companies provided extra encouragement. The yen's weakness helped
Japanese stocks today, but the other larger bourses in the Asia Pacific area
were sold, with losses in Hong Kong, the CSI 300, South Korea, and Taiwan off
more than 1%....
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February 2023
The
new year began amid optimism among investors. Equities and bonds rallied in
January, clawing back some losses from last year. The dollar traded heavily,
falling against most G10 and emerging market currencies. However, after the February 1 FOMC meeting, the dollar's sell-off exhausted the
near-term selling pressure. An upside correction may be seen in the first
part of February. We see this as a countertrend move and expect dollar weakness
to...
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The Dollar Pares Yesterday’s Gains but Near-term Change in Sentiment may be at Hand
Overview:ย The dollar remained firm yesterday, even
after the ECB's hawkish stance, reaffirming its intention to hike rates by
another 50 bp next month. We had expected the greenback to have been sold in
North America yesterday. That this did not materialize warns that despite its
pullback in Asia and especially Europe today, that near-term sentiment may be
changing with the Fed and ECB meetings over and die cast for next month, where
the Fed is...
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North America likely will Sell USD Bounce Seen in Europe
Overview:ย The failure of the Federal Reserve to push harder against the market's dovish views and the easing of financial conditions encouraged a risk-on trade that saw the dollar and yields slump and equities rally. There has been limited follow-through dollar selling today, and a small recovery ahead of the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings.
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Will What the Fed Says be More Important than What it Does?
Overview:ย ย The focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve today. There is nearly universal agreement that it will lift the target by 25 bp. The market is inclined to see the shift as a sign that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and sees, at most, one more quarter-point hike. Despite the Fed's warnings, including in the December FOMC minutes, about the premature easing of financial conditions, the market has done precisely that.
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Position Adjustments at Month-End and Ahead of FOMC Outcome Lifts the Greeenback
Overview:ย A combination of month-end adjustments and
positioning ahead of the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC meeting has taken the shine
off equities and has helped lift the dollar. On the heels of yesterday's sharp
decline on Wall Street, several large markets in the Asia Pacific region,
including China's CSI 300, the Hang Seng, and both South Korea's Kospi and
Taiwan's Taiex fell by more than 1%. Although the eurozone eked out a small
expansion in Q4...
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Anti-Climactic Return of China
Overview:ย The re-opening
of China's mainland market amid reports of strong activity during the holiday,
was relatively subdued. The CSI 300 rose less than 0.5% and the Shanghai
Composite eked out less than a 0.2% gain. The 0.5% gain in the yuan was largely
in line with the performance of the offshore yuan. Indeed, it seems like a bit
like "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity as Hong Kong's
Hang Seng tumbled 2.75%, to give back...
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Week Ahead Alchemy: Can Powell Turn a Quarter-Point Move into a Hawkish Hike?
The new year is still
young, but the week ahead may be one of the most important weeks of
the year. The divergence that the market has been anticipating will
materialize. The Federal Reserve will most likely hike by 25 bp on Wednesday,
followed by half-point moves by the European Central Bank and the Bank of
England the following day. On Friday, February 3, the US will report its
January employment situation. It could be the slowest job creation...
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Bannockburn World Currency Index Recoups 50% of Loss since June 2021 High, with Golden Cross
The Bannockburnโs World Currency Index (BWCI) is a
GDP-weighted currency basket representing the currencies of the top 12
economies, with the eurozone counted as one.
The US is the worldโs largest economy and the dollarโs share
of the index is almost 31%. China is the second-largest economy and has a
nearly 22% weight.
The euro is next with a 19% weight, followed by Japan with
about a 7.5% weight. After that, the weights drop off to less than 5%...
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Subdued Ending to a Quiet Week, Ahead of Next Week’s Fireworks
Overview:ย Leaving aside the Australian dollar, which
is benefiting from the optimism over China's re-opening and a reassessment of
the trajectory of monetary policy after a stronger than expected inflation
report, the other G10 currencies traded quietly this week and are +/- less than
0.5%. The risk-on honeymoon to start the year remains intact. The MSCI Asia
Pacific Index has risen every day this week and index of mainland shares that
trade in...
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Euro Closed above $1.09 but Follow-Through Buying Limited
Overview:ย After
some intraday penetration, the euro finally settled above $1.09 yesterday. However,
follow-through buying has been limited and technical and option-related
resistance is seen in the $1.0940-50 area. The dollar is more broadly mixed
today, with the dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone leading the advancers. The
euro, yen, and sterling are nursing small losses near midday in Europe. The
recovery of US equity indices yesterday after gap...
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Bank of Canada may say Pause, but the Market Hears Finished
Overview:ย Amid sharp losses in the US equity futures, the US dollar is mostly firmer against the G10 currencies. The notable exception is the Australian dollar, where high-than-expected inflation boosts the risk of a more aggressive central bank.
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No Follow-Through Euro Buying while S&P Holds Yesterday’s Breakout
Overview:ย ย A quiet consolidative session has been recorded
so far today as North American leadership is awaited. The preliminary PMI
readings are mixed. Japan and the eurozone look somewhat better, but Australia
and the UK disappointed.ย The dollar is trading with a mostly firmer bias,
but largely confined to yesterday's ranges.ย The markets seem to be looked
ahead toward next week's Fed, ECB, and BOE meetings, and the return of China
from this...
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Euro Pokes Above $1.09. Will it be Sustained?
Overview:ย The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on holiday all week. The signaling of a downshift in the pace of Fed tightening by some notable hawks helped lift risk appetites ahead of the weekend and saw the
S&P 500 snap a four-day decline.
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Are We Still on the New Year Honeymoon? A Look at the Week Ahead
There are several macro
highlights in the week ahead, during which Chinese markets are closed for the
Lunar New Year celebration. The preliminary January purchasing managers surveys
pose headline risk. However, the survey data, forย example, had the US composite below the 50 boom/bust level every month in H2 22, which likely overstates the case, as the first look at Q4 22 US GDP will probably show. While some improvement is expected, composite PMI...
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Dismal UK Retail Sales Weigh on Sterling, While the Yen Softens
Overview:ย The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10
currencies, with the notable exception, yen, Swiss franc, and sterling. The
risk-on mood is seen in the foreign exchange market with the Antipodean and
Scandi currencies leading the move against the greenback. The yen has fallen by
about 1.3% this week, leading losers, while sterling's 1.1% gain puts it at the
top. Despite the poor showing of US equities yesterday, risk appetites...
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Poor US Data Cast Doubts on New Found Hopes of a Soft-Landing
Overview:ย ย Yesterday's string of dismal US economic
data delivered a material blow to those still thinking that a soft-landing was
possible. Retail sales by the most in the a year. Manufacturing output fell by nearly 2.5% in the last two months of 2022. Bad
economic news weighed on US stocks. The honeymoon of New Year may have ended
yesterday. The US 10-year yield fell below 3.40% for the first time since the
middle of last September. The Atlanta...
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The BOJ Surprises by Standing Pat
Overview:ย The BOJ defied speculation and stuck to its
current policy, which saw the yen sell-off sharply. The dollar rallied about
3.4 yen before falling back. The greenback is broadly lower against the other
G10 currencies. However, for the fifth consecutive session, the euro has
stalled around $1.0870. While UK headline inflation softened, mostly due to fuel,
core prices were unchanged, and this may have helped sterling extend its recent
gains to...
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