Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Week Ahead: Is the Dollar’s Downtrend Resuming?

2023-07-08

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2023-07-08

The dollar appears at an inflection point. Its failure to draw much traction even as US rates rose may be an important tell. The US 2-year yield rose to a new multiyear high near 5.12%, while the 10-year yield set a new high for the year around 4.09% after the employment report. The dollar's broad gains in the second half of last month looks corrective. The underlying downtrend, which we argue began last September and October, looks set to resume....

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Yen Extends Recovery on Wage Data, Yuan Ticks Up Too

2023-07-07

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2023-07-07

Overview: A powerful short squeeze has lifted the yen by the most in two months this week. The dollar's push today below JPY143 was encouraged by the stronger than expected wage growth. The US jobs report will test its strength. The PBOC fixed the yuan sharply higher today and it is the only emerging market currency that is higher on the day, ahead of the Latam open. The dollar has not drawn much support for the surge in US yields. The 10-year...

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Yen and Yuan Lead Move Against the Dollar

2023-07-06

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2023-07-06

Overview: Stocks and bonds ae selling off today. The greenback is also trading heavily. Ironically, the yen is the strongest among the G10 currencies and the Chinese yuan is the strongest among emerging market currencies. The dollar is firmer against the Scandis and Canadian dollar. Most emerging market currencies, including the Mexican peso, which traded at its best level yesterday since 2015. While nearly all the bourses but India fell in the...

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Sobering PMI Readings Sap Risk Appetites

2023-07-05

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2023-07-05

Overview: As US markets prepare to re-open from yesterday's holiday, the dollar is trading mostly higher, though the euro and yen are steady to slightly firmer. Narrow ranges are prevailing. The Canadian and Australian dollars are exceptions and are off about 0.3%. Emerging market currencies are mostly lower, including Russia, China, South Africa, and Turkey. Final service and composite PMIs were mostly revised lower in Japan, Australia, and the...

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What Happened Today

2023-07-04

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2023-07-04

The US dollar was mostly softer. The New Zealand dollar was the strongest (~0.85%) helped by cross rate gains against the Australian dollar, following the RBA’s decision to stand pat. The Australian dollar fell to one-month lows below NZD1.08. There is scope for another 0.5%, or so to the next target near NZD1.0750. The RBA’s decision to leave its cash target at 4.10% was not surprising, and despite the hawkish rhetoric, the market downgraded the...

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The Greenback Starts H2 on a Firm Note

2023-07-03

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2023-07-03

Overview: The dollar is recovering from the month-end losses seen at the end of last week. Only the New Zealand dollar among the G10 currencies is holding its own. Japanese reports indicate that Tokyo is in contact with the US Treasury about intervention, which is injecting a note of caution as the greenback holds below JPY145.00. Chinese officials also appear to be stepping up their efforts to stabilize the yuan. Among emerging market currencies,...

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July 2023 Monthly

2023-07-01

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2023-07-01

Price pressures remain elevated but economic momentum slowed as Q2 wound down. Many market participants think this poses a dilemma for policymakers and are skeptical that the hikes signaled will be delivered because of economic weakness or financial strains. These developments are thought to limit the tightening cycle before the inflation genie can be stuffed back into the bottle.Yet, this may underestimate the resolve of most of the major central...

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Market Continues to Converge With Fed’s Forward Guidance

2023-06-30

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2023-06-30

Overview:  A key development in recent days has been the market's convergence with the Federal Reserve's forward guidance regarding scope for two quarter-point hikes in the second half. The US two-yield is up about six basis points today, extending yesterday's 15 bp increase. It is approaching 5%. The Fed funds futures strip implies one hike has been fully priced in and about a third of the next one. The dollar has risen against all the G10...

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PBOC Fixes Dollar Lower, but It Recovers Against the Yuan, Riksbank Hikes and Market Yawns

2023-06-29

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2023-06-29

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Stronger than expected Australian retail sales helped steady the currency after the soft inflation data took it down. Sterling has also steadied after it suffered its largest loss yesterday (~0.9%) in over a month. Sweden's 25 bp rate hike has not given the krona much of a lift. Central European currencies lead the emerging market currencies higher, while the PBOC set the...

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The Dollar Regains Composure

2023-06-28

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2023-06-28

Overview: The dollar is better bid today. It is rising against nearly all the G10 currencies, with the Antipodeans bearing the brunt, after a softer than expected Australian inflation report. The yen has steadied after extending its losses to new lows for the year. Emerging market currencies are also mostly lower, though the Mexican peso is edging higher for the fourth consecutive session. The large Asia Pacific bourses rallied with the exception...

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PBOC Sends Signal in Lower Dollar Fix, while the Canadian Dollar makes a 9-Month High

2023-06-27

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2023-06-27

Overview: Hawkish comments by ECB President Lagarde at the central bank symposium in Sintra and the PBOC's weaker dollar fix have weighed on the greenback today. It is lower against most of the G10 currencies, but the Japanese yen and Norwegian krone. It also slipped to a new nine-month low against the Canadian dollar. Emerging market currencies are also mostly firmer, with the notable exceptions of the Russian rouble and beleaguered Turkish lira....

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Calm Start to the Week, with Little Impact from Russia’s Drama

2023-06-26

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2023-06-26

Overview:  The drama in Russia captured the imaginations but failed to have much impact on the capital markets. Conventional wisdom sees it as a sign of Putin's weakness, but he has been underestimated, including by many Ukrainians who did not think Russia was going to invade despite America's repeated warnings. It may take some time for the implications for the two main protagonists, Wagner head Prigozhin and Defense Minister Shoigu. The war in...

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After Disappointing PMIs, Attention will Turn Back to Inflation in the Week Ahead

2023-06-24

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2023-06-24

As the month and quarter wind down, inflation readings are featured. The US May PCE deflator, which is the targeted measure is reported. Canada and Australia report May CPI. The eurozone reports the preliminary June CPI, and Japan see Tokyo's June CPI, which serves a similar function. Leaving aside Japan, the others, including the UK have signaled that the monetary tightening cycle will be extended into H2. That said, the poor preliminary PMI...

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Greenback Jumps on Weak Flash PMIs

2023-06-23

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2023-06-23

Overview: As the market reluctantly edges toward the Fed's guidance, the disappointing PMIs from Europe (but also Japan and Australia) helped boost the greenback. The Dollar Index is trading at seven-day highs above 103 after briefly dipping below 102 to set a new low since mid-May yesterday. The unwinding of cross positions is helping the yen hold its own today as it consolidates near its worst level of the year. The surging dollar and risk-off...

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Higher for Longer

2023-06-22

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2023-06-22

Overview:  The central banks of Norway and Switzerland have hiked rates by 50 bp and 25 bp, respectively. Attention is on the Bank of England. A 25 bp hike is widely expected but after strong inflation report, the risk is clearly for a 50 bp hike. In fact, we suspect a quarter-point move could see sterling sold. With a new orthodox economics team in Turkey, a large rate hike is expected today. Late in the North American session, Mexico's central...

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UK Inflation Surprises to the Upside and Weighs on Sterling

2023-06-21

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2023-06-21

Overview: The UK surprised with higher-than-expected consumer inflation and budget deficit, and the odds of a 50 bp hike tomorrow edged higher. Sterling has been sold on the news and is the weakest of the G10 currencies, off about 0.5%. The dollar is mixed with the euro, Swedish krona, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc posting small gains. Emerging market currencies are lower, including the Chinese yuan, which is at new lows since last November. The...

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Scandis and Antipodeans Lead the Greenback’s Recovery

2023-06-20

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2023-06-20

Overview: The market continues to resist the Fed's signal that another 50 bp of hikes may be necessary to ensure inflation is headed toward its target. Previously, the market had rate cuts priced in, and it took some time for the Fed's push back to be accepted. The market converged with the Fed, and this helped the dollar recover. We suspect a similar pattern to play out again. The market does not have even one of the two Fed hikes discounted. As...

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Week Ahead: Greenback Looks Set to Bounce after the Recent Drubbing

2023-06-17

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2023-06-17

The week ahead is less eventful than the week that just passed, which saw the anticipated hike by the ECB and the small cut by the PBOC. The Fed delivered the widely tipped hawkish hold and the US CPI continued to decelerate. The dollar fell against the G10 currencies last week but the yen.  Sterling, and the Canadian dollar rose to new highs for the year,  Momentum indicators are stretched.  This coupled with risk-reward considerations suggest...

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BOJ Stands Pat while the Dollar is Consolidating Ahead of the Weekend

2023-06-16

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2023-06-16

Overview: The market has not yet become convinced that the Fed will in fact deliver the two hikes the median dot anticipates this year, and the dollar was sold off sharply yesterday, the day after the FOMC meeting. In fact, the swaps market is more convinced that the ECB hikes in July than the Fed. Outside of the yen, which was sold after the BOJ stood pat, the G10 currencies are mostly little changed, consolidating the recent moves. Emerging...

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ECB’s Turn

2023-06-15

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2023-06-15

Overview: The Fed's hawkish hold and signal that it may raise rates two more time this year sent ripples through the capital markets. Risk appetites have been dealt a blow. However, China's rate cut and likely additional supportive measures after disappointing data, helped lift the CSI 300 by 1.6%, the most this year. The Hang Seng rose by nearly 2.2%, the most in three months. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance and US index futures...

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