Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market
Ueda’s Comments Knock the Yen Back, while the Euro Flirts with $1.08
Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Scandis are enjoying a slightly firmer tone, while the euro and sterling are edging higher in European turnover.
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Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies
The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.
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Dollar Jumps
Overview: A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a slightly softer than expected January CPI from Australia appears to have sparked a broad US dollar rally.
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Weak US Durable Goods may Herald Pullback in Capex
Most of the G10 currencies are trading quietly in narrow ranges today. After a slightly firmer than expected national CPI reading, which still moderated, and a pullback in US yields, the Japanese yen is the strongest of the major currencies.
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Euro Bid in Europe but Unlikely to Sustain Gains Through North America
Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week mixed. The
dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen are softer while the European
currencies enjoy a firmer today. Among emerging market currencies, central
European currencies are trading with higher. The Turkish lira is the notable
exception. It is the weakest currency today, off about 0.65%. The Chinese yuan
is a little softer, but the dollar continues to be capped near CNY7.20. Last
week, more often...
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Week Ahead: With the Markets Converging (Again) with Fed’s Dots, Is the Interest Rate Adjustment Over?
The US dollar and interest rates appear to be at an inflection point. Much of the past several weeks have been about correcting the overshoot that took place in Q4 23, when the derivatives markets were pricing in nearly seven quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
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While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America
Overview: Amid a light news stream,
the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside
the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We
note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the
five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the
other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near
JPY150.90. Emerging market...
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Risk On, Dollar Sold
Overview: The
post-close rally in US tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has fueled risk-on
activity today. The Nikkei closed at record highs with a 2.2% rally. China's
CSI rose for the eighth consecutive session as official discourage sales at the
open and close, and short sales in general. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than
0.5% to recoup the small losses seen in the last two sessions. US indices are
poised to gap higher at the open. Benchmark...
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China’s CSI 300 Rises for Seventh Consecutive Session and Offshore Yuan Strengthens for the Sixth Session
Overview: The dollar is trading quietly
after being sold yesterday. It is still soft against the dollar bloc and the
Swiss franc but is firmer against the other G10 currencies. Narrow ranges have
dominated. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European
currencies and the Taiwan dollar trading softer. The offshore Chinese yuan is
firmer for the sixth consecutive session. The highlights of today's North
American session features minutes...
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Dollar Slips but Dip may Offer New Opportunity
Overview: The US dollar is offered today. It is
trading softer against all the G10 currencies, with the yen the notable
exception, and it is flat. The Antipodean are leading the way, taking out last
week's highs, as has the euro. That said, the intraday momentum indicators are
stretched as NY dealers return from the long holiday weekend. The Scandis are
also trading above last week's highs. The yen, sterling, Canadian dollar, and
Swiss franc are...
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China Returns, the US is on Holiday, and the Dollar Consolidates
Overview: US markets are closed for President's Day,
while China's markets re-opened from the long Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland
stocks advanced, while the yuan slipped slightly. The US dollar is mostly
softer but in narrow ranges. The Antipodeans and yen lead, while the Swiss
franc the only G10 currency that is slightly softer. Most emerging market
currencies are lower, led by about a 0.5% loss of the South African rand. The
Mexican peso's and...
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Week Ahead: China Returns and Flash PMI Featured after US Rate Adjustment was Extended
The US January CPI and PPI came in stronger than expected and this extended the recovery in US interest rates. In turn that helped underpin the dollar. We do not think the data itself changes the Fed's stance. At least seven Fed officials speaking in the coming days will test this hypothesis. There are still several key reports before the data dependent FOMC meets again in about four weeks.
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Quiet End to a Busy Week
Overview: The US dollar is winding down this week on
a quiet note. Most of the G10 currencies are trading within yesterday's ranges.
On the week, only the Scandis are set to close with gains, though with a little
effort, the Australian dollar could too. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are
the laggards off 0.65%-0.75% this week. Most emerging market currencies outside of
central Europe are firmer. The South African rand is the strongest this...
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Divergence Highlighted by Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions in Japan and the UK but Little FX Reaction
Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan's economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia's jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021.
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Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses
Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected
January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the
Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher,
and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their
losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week
slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did,
and...
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Sterling Buoyed by Labor Market Report Ahead of US CPI
Overview: The US dollar is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead
of today's CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after
a more resilient than expected labor market report. The dollar extended its
gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November, but the
market seems cautious as it approaches JPY150, where large options expire today.
On the other hand, emerging market currencies are mostly faring better. The...
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The Greenback is in Narrow Ranges to Start the Week
Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The
Lunar New Year holiday shut most Asian markets. That, coupled with the light
news in Europe, have served to keep the dollar in narrow ranges against the G10
currencies. The Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and Japanese yen are posting
minor gains against the greenback. The New Zealand dollar, which was strongest
major currency last week (1.4%) is off by almost 0.5% today, making it the
weakest...
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Week Ahead: Will Soft US CPI and Retail Sales Mark the End of the Interest Rate Adjustment and Help Cap the Greenback?
The
markets are still correcting from the overshoot on rates and the dollar that
took place in late 2023. The first Fed rate cut has been pushed out of March
and odds of a May move have been pared to the lowest since last November. The
extent of this year's cuts has been chopped to about 4.5 quarter-point move
(~112 bp) from more than six a month ago. The market has reduced the extent
of ECB cuts to about 114 bp (from 160 bp at the end of January...
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Becalmed FX Market doesn’t Conceal the Greenback’s Strength
Overview: The foreign exchange market is
becalmed today, with most of the major pairs trading in narrow ranges. The
economic calendar is light and the North American session features benchmark
revisions in US CPI and Canada's January employment figures. The US quarterly
refunding supply has been absorbed without much fanfare. The dollar-bloc
currencies and the Norwegian krone are firmer today. A bank forecast that the
central bank will hike rates...
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Yen Tumbles to New Low on BOJ Comments
Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against most
of the G10 currencies as it continues to consolidate its recent gains. The yen is the notable exception, and
it was sold today, not in response to developments in the US Treasury market, a
frequent driver, but in response to comments by a deputy governor of the central bank,
suggesting a rate adjustment would not necessarily signal the start of a
tightening cycle, which some economists expected....
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