Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Greenback Recovers Despite New Threats on the Fed and Stronger UK and Chinese GDP

2026-04-16

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2026-04-16

(A business trip will disrupt the daily commentary tomorrow and next week, but the weekly analysis will be posted here on April 18 and the May monthly note will drop on April 25.  Thank you for your patience, and good luck). The Dollar Index did not snap its losing streak yesterday but extended it for its …

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The Greenback is Poised to Snap Losing Streak

2026-04-15

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2026-04-15

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today. The Dollar Index is threatening to snap a seven-day decline. President Trump has held out the possibility that the “war is close to over”. Yet the improved risk appetites in recent days reflects the market anticipating this. A new round of US-Iran negotiations could begin as …

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Optimism Weighs on the Greenback

2026-04-14

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2026-04-14

North American participants shrugged off the pessimism seen in Asia Pacific and Europe yesterday after the US-Iran negotiations broke down over the weekend. The optimism was contagious and reports that another round of negotiations are being contemplated during the ceasefire that expires next week. The dollar is broadly weaker. Global equities and bonds have rallied …

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Restrained Risk-Off

2026-04-13

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2026-04-13

The collapse of US-Iran negotiations and the US threat to blockage Iranian ports presents an escalation in the conflict that the market’s did not anticipate. Equities and bonds are lower, and the dollar is mostly firmer. However, so far, the moves appear restrained. Iranian oil has largely been shipped to China and with the Trump-Xi …

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Week Ahead: Hope Springs Eternal

2026-04-11

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2026-04-11

Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans and Scandis, which seem the most sensitive to growth prospects and the risk … Continue reading...

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G10 Currency Consolidation Looks Constructive, but the Weekend Poses Risks

2026-04-10

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2026-04-10

The dollar is mixed against the G10 currencies today, ahead of the March US CPI report. The dollar bloc and the Japanese yen are struggling. However, the tone is mostly consolidative. Equities were higher in the Asia Pacific region, with a few exceptions, and in Europe. Bond yields are firmer. Both WTI and Brent crude …

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Rough Start to Ceasefire Curbs Yesterday’s Enthusiasm

2026-04-09

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2026-04-09

It seemed clear that yesterday’s euphoric reaction to the two-week ceasefire was exaggerated. Ceasefires often have been plagued with disputes and violations at the start. This one is no different. At the same time, Israel’s action in Lebanon complicates the situation and there is some dispute whether it was covered by the ceasefire. President Trump …

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Ceasefire Lifts Animal Spirits

2026-04-08

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2026-04-08

Risk appetites have been excited by the two-week cease fire in the Middle East. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly. The precious metals are higher. May WTI is off more than 15%. June Brent is about 13% lower. The US dollar is weaker against all the G10 and emerging market currencies that are trading. The … Continue reading...

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On the Edge of the Abyss

2026-04-07

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2026-04-07

The dollar is mostly narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Swedish krona, which has fallen nearly 0.75% on the back of an unexpected soft March CPI, the other G10 currencies are +/- less than 0.2%. Investors remain on edge ahead the US ultimatum deadline, which is in the Asia Pacific session today. … Continue reading...

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Cease-Fire Hopes Blunt US Ultimatum

2026-04-06

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2026-04-06

The US deadline on Tehran for re-opening the Strait of Hormuz has subtly shifted until tomorrow. The holiday-thinned market initially bought dollars and oil and took risk off in response to the continued attacks and the escalation of US rhetoric. However, negotiations, apparently led by Pakistan, Egypt, and Türkiye for a 45-day cease fire, have …

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Week Ahead: It’s Still Mostly about the War

2026-04-04

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2026-04-04

The Middle East war remains the dominant fundamental condition. There continues to be some indication that market participants are hopeful of a resolution soon. The May WTI contract settled near $111.55 last week, which appears to build in the risk of near-term escalation, but the June contract settled close to $98. The September contract is …

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Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar’s Narrow Ranges

2026-04-03

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2026-04-03

The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind by Tehran, and this will serve to keep risk appetites in check ahead of the weekend. Many centers will be closed on Monday, as well. The main interest today is with …

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Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many

2026-04-02

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2026-04-02

President Trump’s national address seemed to contain little more than a reading of some of his recent social media posts. The market was eager for some sign of confirmation of its hope that had buoyed the capital markets in the last couple of sessions. It found none. The threat of escalating attacks while reiterating that …

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Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower

2026-04-01

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2026-04-01

Hope springs eternal, and the capital markets are trading on hope that the Middle East war ends shortly, even as missiles continue to be fired in the region. President Trump again hinted that the war may be winding down shortly. He will address the nation at 9:00 pm ET today. At a news conference today, …

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Mixed War News Keeps Oil Firm and the Greenback Consolidating

2026-03-31

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2026-03-31

War developments pulled in both directions, leaving investors on edge On the one hand, Iran struck an oil tanker, carrying Kuwait oil, in port in Dubai. On the other hand, reports suggest President Trump told aides he is willing to wind down hostilities and pressure Iran diplomatically to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. May WTI …

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US Dollar’s Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen

2026-03-30

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2026-03-30

The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly attacked. The US continues to amass forces, including troops, ostensibly for a potential landing operation. There seem to be two “logics” playing out. One is …

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April 2026 Monthly

2026-03-28

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2026-03-28

Wars rarely stay where they start. The Israeli and American military campaign against Iran—the most direct confrontation with Tehran in decades—has sent shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. The fog of war obscures the tactical picture almost daily, but the economic transmission mechanisms are clear enough, and investors who mistake this for a regional skirmish …

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The Dollar and Oil are Bid

2026-03-27

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2026-03-27

The dollar and oil remain firm. The market has a had muted reaction to President Trump’s announcement late yesterday that it will extend its pledge not to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days (April 6). At the same time, reports indicate the US is considering sending more troops to the area. The logic of … Continue reading »

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Hope Wanes, USD Little Changed while Bonds and Stocks Weaken

2026-03-26

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2026-03-26

The US dollar is trading in narrow trading ranges against the G10 currencies today, but the calm in the foreign exchange market belies stress in other parts of the capital markets. Equities and bonds have been sold. The hope that an end to the Middle East conflict has faltered amid the conflicting signals from the …

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Thoughts on the Dollar

2026-03-25

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2026-03-25

The dollar's resilience since the war began is not a mystery, but it is being misread. The Dollar Index has appreciated roughly 1.8% this month alone, following a modest 0.65% gain in February after January's 1.35% slide. Against every G10 currency, the greenback has advanced since hostilities commenced. All but the Canadian dollar and sterling …

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