Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Where We Stand

2024-04-12

by

2024-04-12

I am on vacation, and then on a business trip that will interrupt the commentary until the weekly note on April 30. The May monthly analysis will be published the following week after the FOMC meeting and April employment report.

Read More »

Dollar Consolidates but Adjustment is Not Over

2024-04-11

by

2024-04-11

Overview:  Higher than expected US CPI for the third consecutive month drove US interest rates sharply higher and lifted the greenback broadly. The market appears to be catching its proverbial breath today, but the shallow consolidation suggests the moves are not over.

Read More »

US CPI, New Security Initiatives with Tokyo and Manila, Bank of Canada Meeting

2024-04-10

by

2024-04-10

Overview: The dollar has been confined to narrow ranges ahead of the US CPI report. Given the backup of US rates and the stronger-than-expected jobs growth, the greenback's performance has been unimpressive.

Read More »

Dollar Consolidates Softer Ahead of Tomorrow’s CPI

2024-04-09

by

2024-04-09

Overview: The dollar is trading with a softer bias in mostly narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. It did not rally much ahead of the US jobs data, and it was not able to sustain the upside momentum afterwards, despite the jump in US yields. Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who still has a strong reputation in the market, told Bloomberg TV yesterday that three cuts were his base case this year. The Scandis and Antipodeans are the...

Read More »

Will the Market Push the Dollar Above JPY152 as Japanese Prime Minister Heads to the US?

2024-04-08

by

2024-04-08

Overview:  The jump in US rates after the employment report failed to ignite a sustained rally in the dollar and this shaken the market's near-term confidence. The dollar has been mostly confined to narrow ranges and the low yielding Swiss franc and Japanese yen are softest with the G10 complex today. The dollar is knocking on JPY152. The Scandis and Antipodeans lead the advancers. The euro has made little headway despite a much stronger than...

Read More »

Week Ahead: Strong US Jobs Data Failed to Sustain Dollar Rally, Can the March CPI do Better?

2024-04-06

by

2024-04-06

The March US employment data were stronger than expected and lend support to the re-acceleration hypothesis and an extension of US exceptionalism. In Q1 24, nonfarm payrolls rose by an average of 276k. It was the strongest quarter in a year and compares with an average monthly job gain of about 251k in 2023. The unemployment rate slipped as the household survey jumped around 500k after falling in the previous two months. The workweek increased, and...

Read More »

US Employment Data to Set Dollar’s Course

2024-04-05

by

2024-04-05

Overview: The focus is squarely on the US employment report. At the risk of oversimplifying, given the position adjustment in the past 48 hours, a solid report can see the greenback recover, while a disappointing report will likely see it deepen the correction of the rally that began with the February jobs report. The dollar recovered in the North American afternoon yesterday and many observers attributed it to the bevy of Fed comments. Yet, the...

Read More »

Greenback Losses Extended, but Look for Consolidation in North America

2024-04-04

by

2024-04-04

Overview: The softer-than-expected ISM services report caught the market leaning the wrong way. Although interest rates had a muted reaction, the dollar was sold. In fact, the Dollar Index saw its second-biggest loss of the year, falling by about 0.50%. ISM services prices paid increases moderated to their slowest since March 2020. Supplier deliveries improved to their best since 2009, suggesting a supply chain improvement. Still, the Fed funds...

Read More »

Rate Adjustment Underpins Greenback

2024-04-03

by

2024-04-03

Overview: The adjustment to US interest rates continues and this helps underpin the US dollar. The 10-year yield rose to 4.40% yesterday, the highest it has been since last November. It is trading 4.34%-4.38% today. The two-year yield is firm though holding below the Q1 high set last month near 4.75%. This week, for the first time since last October, the Fed funds futures do not have at least a quarter point cut discounted for July. As recently as...

Read More »

Gold, Oil, and Interest Rates Rise

2024-04-02

by

2024-04-02

Overview:  The market put more weight on the rise in the US ISM manufacturing survey than the downward revision to the manufacturing PMI and the unexpected back-to-back decline in construction spending. US rates shot up and lifted the greenback. The Dollar Index made a new high for the year, a little above 105, which had been anticipated by the new lows recorded by the Bannockburn World Currency Index (a GDP-weighted basket of the currencies of...

Read More »

China PMI is Better than Expected but the Greenback Still Rises above CNY7.23

2024-04-01

by

2024-04-01

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly against the G10 currencies as European markets remain on holiday. Narrow ranges have prevailed. The dollar-bloc currencies are leading with minor gains, perhaps helped on the margins by better-than-expected Chinese PMI, but the Scandis, which also typically do well amid a better global growth profile are the laggards. This may speak to the light liquidity conditions. Japan may have missed a tactical...

Read More »

April 2024 Monthly

2024-03-30

by

2024-03-30

The macroeconomic and geopolitical developments have not changed substantially over the past month. The resilience of the US economy allows the Federal Reserve to put more emphasis on achieving price stability. While the market favors a June cut (66% vs. 80% at the end of February), it has not been fully discounted for over a month. The biggest event in March may have been the well-telegraphed exit from negative interest rate policy and Yield...

Read More »

Waller Pushes on Open Door: Push for Patience Lifts the Dollar, Complicating Japanese Efforts

2024-03-28

by

2024-03-28

Overview: Comments by Fed Governor Waller, urging patience on rates and wanting more evidence that price pressures are moderating has helped the greenback extend its recent gains. The yen is the notable exception as the fear of intervention has restrained the dollar bulls. Poor German data, including a sharp 1.9% drop in February retail sales, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, underscored the euro's negative divergence, and the single...

Read More »

Heightened Threat of Japanese Intervention Pushes Greenback Away from JPY152

2024-03-27

by

2024-03-27

Overview: The dollar neared JPY152, setting a new 34-year high. This appeared to spur a senior official meeting in Tokyo, ostensibly to talk about the response. Previously, we suggested that Friday, when most markets outside of Asia will be closed, could provide an interesting opportunity for intervention. The implicit threat was enough to take the dollar to JPY151.10 in the European morning. Most of the G10 currencies are softer against the dollar...

Read More »

Dollar’s Recent Gains Pared but Firm Undertone Remains Intact

2024-03-26

by

2024-03-26

Overview: After surging at the last week, the dollar consolidated yesterday and is continuing to do so today as slightly lower levels. The Swiss franc is the only G10 currency unable to gain traction against the greenback today. Still, the dollar's pullback has barely met the minimum retracement targets of the jump last Thursday and Friday. The PBOC lower the dollar's fix slightly, but the proverbial toothpaste is out of the tube and officials are...

Read More »

Greenback Consolidates Last Week’s Surge

2024-03-25

by

2024-03-25

Overview: After surging at the end of last week, the dollar is consolidating today. Stepped up verbal intervention by Japan's currency chief Kanda and a slightly weaker dollar fix by the PBOC seemed to take the wind from the dollar sails. Except for the Swiss franc and Swedish krona, the G10 currencies are showing a slightly firmer tone. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European currencies leading the advancers. The Taiwanese...

Read More »

Week Ahead: Enthusiasm for the Dollar Rekindled

2024-03-23

by

2024-03-23

Last week will be remembered for several things. First, the Bank of Japan lifted its interest rate target for the first time in 17 years and formally ended its Yield Curve Control and ceased buying ETFs. The yen sold off and the dollar approach the 2022 and 2023 cap slightly below JPY152. Japanese officials have used the language that has signaled heightened risk of intervention in the past. Second, the Swiss National Bank became the first G10...

Read More »

CNY7.20 Gives Way as Strong Greenback Proves Too Much

2024-03-22

by

2024-03-22

Overview: The dollar's post-FOMC sell-off has been completely reversed and the greenback has reached new highs for the week against most of the G10 currencies. Heightened intervention fears and softer US yields has helped steady the yen, which near unchanged now, and is the best performer. The Scandis and Antipodeans are the heaviest, off 0.65%-0.90%. For the first time since last November, the US dollar has risen above CNY7.20 and continued to...

Read More »

Market Hears a Dovish Fed and Sells the Greenback

2024-03-21

by

2024-03-21

Overview:  The Federal Reserve triggered a dollar sell-off yesterday and follow-through selling was seen in Asia before profit-taking emerged. That created a new dollar selling opportunity in early European turnover. The FOMC revised up this year's growth forecast, shaved the unemployment projection, and while maintaining the PCE deflator forecast, and the median dot remained for three cuts this year. The soft-landing scenario was underscored and...

Read More »

Dollar Extends Gains Against the Yen but Broadly Firmer Ahead of the FOMC

2024-03-20

by

2024-03-20

Overview: The US dollar remains bid ahead of the outcome of today's FOMC meeting. No change in policy is expected, but the forward guidance, partly delivered in the updated projections, is the focus. In the last iteration (December), the Fed "dot" was for three rate cuts this year. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday today but dollar's gains against the yen have been extended and the greenback is nearing the peak seen in...

Read More »