Tag Archive: newslettersent

FX Daily, August 02: Euro Climbs Relentlessly, While Greenback is Mixed

2017-08-02

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2017-08-02

The euro's strength is surely partly a reflection of US dollar weakness, but it is also a reflection of the improved sentiment among investors. The initial dollar losses at the start of the year was largely a correction that is common after a Fed hike. This is more or less what happened at the start of 2016 as well, following the Fed hike in December 2015.

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Estimated Chinese Gold Reserves Surpass 20,000t

2017-08-02

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2017-08-02

Shanghai Gold Exchange Vaults, Jan 2009 - June 2017
My best estimate as of June 2017 with respect to total above ground gold reserves within the Chinese domestic market is 20,193 tonnes. The majority of these reserves are held by the citizenry, an estimated 16,193 tonnes; the residual 4,000 tonnes, which is a speculative yet conservative estimate, is held by the Chinese central bank the People’s Bank of China.

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Swiss trust in news media in decline, says report

2017-08-02

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2017-08-02

A recent report by the Reuters Institute shows a fall in trust in news media in Switzerland. They survey shows that only 46% trust news overall. This is down 4% compared to the year before. The report suggests this is an effect of the debate around ‘fake news’ resulting from the presidential election in the US, a subject that dominated Swiss media at the time.

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Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q3 2017

2017-08-02

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2017-08-02

Banknotes
The quarterly Incrementum Advisory Board meeting was held last week (the full transcript is available for download below). Our regulars Dr. Frank Shostak and Jim Rickards were unable to attend this time, but we were joined by special guest Luke Gromen of research house “Forest for the Trees” (FFTT; readers will find free samples of the FFTT newsletter at the site and in case you want to find the link again later, we have recently added it to our...

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Swiss Banks Paid Out €1 Billion In Negative Interest Rates In The First Half

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

Investment Structure at the end of Q2 2017
Overnight, the Swiss National Bank disclosed the composition and breakdown of its FX reserves as of June 30. There were no notable changes, as the central bank kept most of its asset allocations unchanged from the previous quarter, with equities, government bonds and "other bonds", at 20%, 68% and 12% respectively. There were also no shifts in the currency composition as shown in the table below.

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Swiss franc slides 4 percent in one week

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

On 24 July 2017, the Swiss franc was 1.101 to the euro. One week later on 31 July 2017 it was 1.145, according to Bloomberg. Over the month it dropped from 1.095 to 1.145, a drop Reuters described as the biggest monthly drop in six years. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been working hard to bring down the value of the Swiss franc. Speaking to the newspaper Le Temps last week, SNB president Thomas Jordan described the currency as “significantly...

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FX Daily, August 01: The Most the Dollar Can Hope for on Turn Around Tuesday is Consolidation

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

After taking a step lower in the North American session yesterday, the dollar is consolidating today. The euro is holding above $1.18, and the dollar held JPY110.00. Global equities are mostly higher, while bonds are mixed. Asia-Pacific yields were mostly higher, while European rates are a little lower. The US 10-year yield is flat just below 2.30%.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Extending The Cycle

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

This economic cycle is one of the longest on record for the US, eight years and counting since the end of the last recession. It has also been, as almost everyone knows, a fairly weak expansion, one that has managed to disappoint both bull and bear.

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Bitcoin, Gold and Silver

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

Banksy’s “Keep it Spotless”
Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Trade deal further unlocks EU market for Swiss exports

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

Switzerland and the European Union today wrapped up negotiations aimed at removing technical barriers to trade for a range of industrial goods. The deal may be a sign that relations are improving between Bern and Brussels.

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SNB reports a profit of CHF 1.2 billion for the first half of 2017

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

Income statement, 1 January–30 June 2017
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a profit of CHF 1.2 billion for the first half of 2017. A valuation gain of CHF 0.3 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 0.1 billion and the profit on Swiss franc positions stood at CHF 0.9 billion. The SNB’s financial result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and capital markets.

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FX Daily, July 31: Monday Morning Blues

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

The euro is up by 0.15% to 1.1385 CHF. The US dollar is enjoying a respite from the recent selling, but its gains have been shallow, and will likely prove brief. The upticks have been concentrated in the recently high-flying dollar-bloc currencies, and sterling. The tone appears to be more consolidative than corrective, and month-end adjustment provides an additional wrinkle.

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Global Stocks Rise On “Growth Optimism”, Ignore Political Turmoil; Dollar, Oil Creep Higher

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

Stoxx Europe, Aug 2016 - 2017
S&P futures rose 0.1% on the last trading day of the month, trailing European and Asian markets boosted by China’s July Mfg. PMI, which despite declining from from 51.7 to 51.4, and missing expecations  of 51.5, saw the construction index rise to its highest level since December 13, sending Chinese iron ore futures surging and … Continue reading »

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Weekly Speculative Positions (as of July 25): Speculators Continue to Pour into Australian and Canadian Dollar Futures

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

swiss-franc-july-31
The net speculative CHF position has risen from -3.7K short to -1.5K contracts short (against USD). Speculators were active in the currency futures in the CFTC reporting week ending July 25. In particular, speculative sentiment continues to be drawn to the Canadian and Australian dollars.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey and its derivative statistics: working hours: Hours worked increased in 2016

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

Number of holiday weeks per year of full-time employees (excluding employees in own company) by age group, 1996-2016
The total number of hours worked in Switzerland reached 7.892 billion in 2016, representing an increase of 1.4% compared with the previous year. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), between 2011 and 2016, the actual weekly hours worked by full-time employees declined by 13 minutes and stood at 41 hours and 10 minutes, whereas the number of weeks of annual holiday continued its gradual increase to 5.12 weeks.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Dollar may Need more than a Strong Employment Report

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

For the US jobs data to rally the dollar, it needs to increase the likelihood of a Fed hike in September, a high bar. The BOE will stand pat, a 6-2 vote would likely be accompanied by a hawkish inflation report. The RBA will also hold rates steady, and of course, it would prefer a weaker currency.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

EM FX was mixed last week, as markets await fresh drivers. Jobs report this Friday could provide greater clarity with regards to Fed policy. BOE and RBA meet but aren’t expected to change policy. Data is likely to reinforce the notion that inflation remains low in EM, allowing those central banks to remain dovish. Czech National Bank is the main exception, as it may start the tightening cycle this week.

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FX Weekly Review, July 24 – July 29: Swiss Franc getting crushed

2017-07-30

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2017-07-30

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 29
The Swiss franc was the only major foreign currency that fell against the dollar last week.  The 2.6% decline was the largest in two years.

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Long Gotthard tailbacks for holiday weekend

2017-07-30

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2017-07-30

Holiday-weekend traffic has been causing long tailbacks at both ends of the Gotthard tunnel in central Switzerland. Reports of two-hour jams on Saturday may re-surface debates about traffic in the region. Southbound traffic waits to enter the Gotthard tunnel.(Keystone) As Swiss National Day approaches on 1 August, this weekend saw large movements of traffic crossing the country, with the...

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Great Graphic: CRB Index Hits 2017 Down Trendline

2017-07-30

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2017-07-30

The CRB Index gapped higher today and it follows a gap higher opening on Tuesday, which has not been filled. Today's gains lift the commodity index to a trendline drawn off the January and February highs and catches the high from late May. It intersects today near 181.35 and the high has been a little over 181.17.

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