Tag Archive: newsletter

Gold & Basel 3: A Revolution That Once Again No One Noticed

2019-04-11

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2019-04-11

Real revolutions are taking place not on squares, but in the quiet of offices, and that’s why nobody noticed the world revolution that took place on March 29th 2019. Only a small wave passed across the periphery of the information field, and the momentum faded away because the situation was described in terms unclear to the masses.

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Here’s What It’s Like To Be a Bear in a Rigged Market

2019-04-11

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2019-04-11

Central bankers and media handlers must be laughing at how easy it is to slaughter the Bears and doubters with another fake-news round of trade-deal rumors and another Fed parrot being prompted to repeat some dovish mumbo-jumbo. It's not just tough being a Bear in a market rigged by trade deal rumors, Federal Reserve dovishness, a tsunami of Chinese liquidity and $270 billion in stock buy-backs in the first quarter--it's impossible. 

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FX Daily, April 10: Be Careful What You Wish For

2019-04-10

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2019-04-10

There were only a few formal disputes under NAFTA 1.0. It says more about the adjudication process than the underlying issues. It was not binding. The Democrats want stronger enforcement provisions in what the NAFTA 2.0. It is understandable. Still, without opening up the agreement, which had been already agreed to by three heads of state, it is difficult to see how this will happen.

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Towards A Globalist Utopia: “Negative Rates Are Coming, Whether You Like It Or Not”

2019-04-10

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2019-04-10

There is nothing that a human mind can’t conceive. It can shoot for the stars or dive in the ocean which twinkles in the shadows of stars and ascend back with sparkling mind bearing uncanny ambition only to float contended. Today, we live in fear of losing wealth, we worry what economic consequences would do to our cash, we look through a microscope and scrutinize every word, every policy, every regulation or find something to put above ‘every’ and...

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Ailing fintech Monetas goes into liquidation again

2019-04-10

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2019-04-10

Bankruptcy proceedings have been reignited against troubled Swiss digital payments company Monetas more than a year after the enterprise hit serious financial difficulties. Efforts to find a new buyer appear to have come to nothing as the firm goes into liquidation.

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Transport costs have increased by 4 percent within five years

2019-04-10

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2019-04-10

Costs of transport by transport mode, 2015
In 2015, transport in Switzerland generated economic costs of around CHF 90 billion. This was 4% more than in 2010. Aviation (+14%) and rail transport (+12%) recorded the largest increases. In comparison, costs for motorised road transport remained rather stable (+2%) and accounted for four fifths of the total transport costs. None of the various transport user groups fully funded the generated costs themselves.

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West Virginia Joins Growing Sound Money Movement – Six Other States Now Weighing Their Own Bills to End Taxes on Gold & Silver

2019-04-10

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2019-04-10

Before the ink could even dry on West Virginia Governor Jim Justice’s signature on a repeal of sales taxation on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bullion and coins, legislators in Wisconsin and Maine introduced similar measures in their own states.

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Trade Deal Follies: The U.S. Has Embraced the World’s Worst Negotiating Tactics

2019-04-10

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2019-04-10

The world's worst negotiating strategy is to make a crazy tulip-bubble stock market rally dependent on a trade deal that harms the interests of the U.S. The world's worst negotiating tactics, the equivalent of handing the other side a loaded gun while waving a squirt gun around, are: 1. Declare a de facto political deadline for a deal. Constantly tweet that a deal is imminent. 

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What Causes Loss of Purchasing Power, Report 7 Apr

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

U.S. small-cap debt builds up, 2002-2019
We have written much about the notion of inflation. We don’t want to rehash our many previous points, but to look at the idea of purchasing power from a new angle. Purchasing power is assumed to be intrinsic to the currency. We have said that the problem with the word inflation is that it treats two different phenomena as if they are the same.

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FX Daily, April 09: Is the USMCA Dead?

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

The heads of state may have agreed on the modernization of NAFTA, but the necessary legislative approval may not be forthcoming this year. The US legislative process has been complicated by the fact that the Democrats secured a majority in the House of Representatives last year.

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Pound to Swiss Franc forecast: Will the GBP/CHF rate drop below 1.30?

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

There is a very strong likelihood that the pound to Swiss franc exchange rate might slip should Theresa May find herself in trickier waters ahead as she attempts to negotiate an extension on the Brexit deadline this week. Pound to Swiss franc exchange rates could easily slip below 1.30, particularly since the Franc is a safe haven currency that can strengthen in times of economic uncertainty.

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Foreign Investors Own 60 percent of Swiss Corporations

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

Global financial institutions are increasingly dominating the shareholders of major Swiss companies, according to the Sunday editionexternal link of the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). The German-language newspaper points to Swiss banking giant Credit Swiss as a prime example of a financial institution where traditional shareholder democracy is eroding fast.

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Monthly Macro Chart Review: April 2019

2019-04-09

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2019-04-09

Economic Growth & Investment
The economic data reported over the last month managed to confirm both that the economy is slowing and that there seems little reason to fear recession at this point. The slowdown is mostly a manufacturing affair – and some of that is actually a fracking slowdown – but consumption has also slowed.

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FX Daily, April 8: Brexit, the EU-China, and the Abandonment of the Open Door

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

(I am in Mexico at the World Trade Center General Assembly, participating on a panel about USMCA--NAFTA2.0--for which approval remains elusive.  It is possible that the US threatens to pull out of NAFTA 1.0 to force action by the US Congress.  Mexico is due to pass legislation this week that may meet demands by the some in the US and Canada for stronger labor protections.

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FX Weekly Preview: Important Steps Away from the Abyss

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

It seems to be well appreciated among by policymakers and investors that the system is ill-prepared to cope with another financial crisis. It is understandable that so many are concerned that the end of the business cycle could trigger a financial crisis. In practice, it seems like it has worked the other way around. The financial crisis triggered the Great Recession.

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Income inequality declines in Switzerland

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

In 2016, before the effects of taxes and welfare, the highest earning 20% of Swiss households made on average 40.8 times what an average household in the bottom 20 percent made, an inequality measure known as the S80/S20. However, after taxes and welfare, including low income support, health insurance subsidies, pensions and disability benefits, the same income ratio fell to 4.4.

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China PMIs jump in March

2019-04-08

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2019-04-08

China Official and Caixin Manufacturing PMI, 2011-2019
Industrial gauges rebound on seansonality as well as policy easing.Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory in March. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 49.2 in February, and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, also up from 49.9 in February and beating the consensus expectation of 50.0.

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Swiss regulator fires warning over buy-to-let property lending

2019-04-07

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2019-04-07

The Swiss financial regulator has warned banks that rules on mortgage lending may be further tightened if they fail to control their appetite for dishing out real estate credit. Loans tipped the one trillion franc mark in 2017 and continue to swell, particularly in the buy-to-let market.

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Switzerland continues to lure foreign companies

2019-04-07

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2019-04-07

Switzerland attracted 282 foreign firms to set up shop in the alpine state, creating 899 jobs last year, according to cantonal economic chiefs. That’s an increase of 37 companies from 2017. Switzerland is in the throes of revamping its corporate tax system to keep it line with the competition rules of the European Union and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

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External Demand, Global Means Global

2019-04-07

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2019-04-07

Germany Factory Orders, SA 2014-2019
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its benchmark money rate for the second straight meeting. Reducing its repo rate by 25 bps, down to 6%, the central bank once gripped by political turmoil has certainly shifted gears. Former Governor Urjit Patel was essentially removed (he resigned) in December after feuding with the federal government over his perceived hawkish stance.

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