Tag Archive: newsletter

Great Graphic: Is that a Head and Shoulders Bottom in the Euro?

2018-09-08

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2018-09-08

EUR Curncy, 6 month chart
The euro recorded the low for the year so far on August 15 near $1.13. We had been anticipating a corrective phase for a couple days before the low was recorded. Recall that the previous Friday, August 10, all the major currencies, but the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar were beyond their Bollinger Bands. The euro recovered toward $1.1735 on August 28, stopping shy of our initial objective of $1.1750.

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Melting glaciers have little impact on Swiss hydropower

2018-09-08

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2018-09-08

Although rapidly melting glaciers provide a temporary boost to Swiss hydropower production, their disappearance does not pose a threat, finds a study from the University of Lausanne. Forecasts predict that glacier melt will slow down between 2070 and 2090. But “fears of a threat to power generation are unfounded”, according to a press release published on Thursday by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), which funded the study.

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Switzerland Unemployment in August 2018: Unchanged at 2.4percent, seasonally adjusted unchanged at 2.6percent

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., Sep 2013 - Sep 2018
Registered unemployment in August 2018 - According to SECO surveys, at the end of August 2018, 107,893 unemployed people were enrolled in the Regional Employment Centers (RAV), 1,841 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 2.4% in the month under review. Compared to the same month of the previous year, unemployment fell by 27,685 people (-20.4%).

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Jump in Hourly Earnings is Key to US Jobs, while Canada adds 40k Full-Time Positions

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

The 201k rise in US non-farm payrolls edged above the median forecasts, but the 50k downward revision to the past two-months removes the gloss.   It is the first August report in seven years that the initial estimate was above the Bloomberg median.  The most important part of the report was the 0.4% jump in hourly earnings, lifting the year-over-year rate to a new cyclical high of 2.9%.

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FX Daily, September 7: Emerging Markets Stabilize While Euro Shrugs Off Disappointing Data

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

The global capital markets are finishing the week on a more stable note than it began.  Indeed, since the middle of the week, many of the besieged emerging market currencies, like the South African rand, Turkish lira,  and Argentine peso have posted some corrective upticks.  Today, the MSCI Emerging Market Index is snapping a seven-day slide register a modest gain, ahead of the Latam session.  

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India’s Aurobindo buys Sandoz US assets from Novartis

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis announced the divestment of its dermatology and generic tablet portfolios of Sandoz US to India’s Aurobindo Pharma for a $900 million (CHF870 million) cash payment. A possible performance-related payment of $100 million could be added to the purchase price, the Swiss AWP financial news agency reported.

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After 10 Years of “Recovery,” What Are Central Banks So Afraid Of?

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

Central Bank Balance sheet
If the world's economies still need central bank life support to survive, they aren't healthy--they're barely clinging to life. The "recovery"/Bull Market is in its 10th year, and yet central banks are still tiptoeing around as if the tiniest misstep will cause the whole shebang to shatter: what are they so afraid of? 

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Jayant Bhandari – The US Dollar vs. Other Currencies and Gold

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

Maurice Jackson Speaks with Jayant Bhandari About Emerging Market Currencies, the Trade War, US Foreign Policy and More. Maurice Jackson of Proven & Probable has recently conducted a new interview with our friend and occasional contributor to this site, Jayant Bhandari, who is inter alia the host of the annual Capitalism and Morality seminar.

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Switzerland GDP Q2 2018: +0.7 percent QoQ, +3.4 percent YoY

2018-09-06

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2018-09-06

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q2 2018
The Swiss economy once again recorded dynamic growth in the 2nd quarter of 2018. GDP (+0.7%) expanded at an above-average rate for the fifth quarter in a row. This ex-pansion was largely supported by manufacturing, which has been experiencing a re-markable upturn since spring of 2017. Exports of goods increased accordingly.

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FX Daily, September 6: Fragile Calm Weighs on Greenback

2018-09-06

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2018-09-06

The global capital markets are calmer today.  This is not preventing the MSCI Emerging Market Index from extending its drop into the seventh consecutive session, but there has been a respite in the sell-off of emerging market currencies, where the Mexican peso, South African rand, Turkish lira, and Indonesian rupiah are modest, modest gains.  At the same time, the Philippine peso, Korean won, and Indian rupee continued to weaken.  

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FX Daily, September 05: Continuing EM Pain Helps the Dollar, but does Little for Yen

2018-09-05

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2018-09-05

The dollar is posting gains against most of the emerging market and major currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is off 1.6% and extending the drop to a sixth consecutive session. Indonesia's bourse saw the largest decline (~3.75%) in the region. In part, it reflects concern that the rupiah's weakness (falling now nine of the past 10 sessions) will boost corporate debt servicing costs.

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The Global Financial System Is Unraveling, And No, the U.S. Is Not immune

2018-09-05

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2018-09-05

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Currencies don't melt down randomly. This is only the first stage of a complete re-ordering of the global financial system. Take a look at the Shanghai Stock Market (China) and tell me what you see: A complete meltdown, right? More specifically, a four-month battle to cling to the key technical support of the 200-week moving average (the red line). Once the support finally broke, the index crashed.

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Cool Video: Emerging Markets Continue to Sell-Off

2018-09-05

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2018-09-05

Marc Chandler
I had the privilege of being on the Bloomberg set with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua earlier today. Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI also joined us for the discussion. This 6.5 min video clip captures the essence of the discussion. The US dollar was rallying against all the major and most EM currencies.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2018: +1.2 percent YoY, Stable MoM

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Aug 2018
Neuchâtel, 4 September 2018 (FSO) - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2018 compared with the previous month, remaining at 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 1.2% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Novartis chief hints at job cuts in Switzerland

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

The president of pharmaceutical giant Novartis has announced job cuts in an interview with Swiss newspaper NZZ am Sonntag. Jörg Reinhardt said the Basel-based company wants to streamline its production sites and administration worldwide.

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FX Daily, September 04: Dollar Gains Broadly

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

The US dollar is rising against all the major and emerging market currencies today. The signals from the White House suggest strong pressure will be exerted on Canada to sign on to NAFTA 2.0 or risk losing part of its auto sector, which of course is primarily the production of US brands. At the same time, the US is in no mood to negotiate with Europe or China.

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Emerging Market Week Ahead Preview

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

EM FX ended last week on a firm note, but weakness resumed Monday. Higher than expected Turkish inflation hurt the lira, which in turn dragged down BRL, ARS, ZAR, and RUB. We expect EM to remain under pressure this week when the US returns from holiday Tuesday.

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Illicit Arbitrage Cut by Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Report 3 Sep 2018

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

Gold and Silver Price
This week, we are back to our ongoing series on capital destruction. Let’s consider the simple transaction of issuing a bond. Party X sells a bond to Party Y. We will first offer something entirely uncontroversial. If the interest rate rises after Y buys the bond, then Y takes a loss. Or if the interest rate falls, then Y makes a capital gain. This is simply saying that the bond price moves inverse to the interest rate.

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Die SNB-Zeitbombe tickt, die NZZ nickt

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

Bildschirmfoto
„Die Devisenreserve der SNB sind keine Zeitbombe, die uns einmal um die Ohren fliegt, sondern eine Art Volksvermögen“. Das behauptet die SNB-freundliche NZZ am Sonntag. Das Blatt bedient ein SNB-Klischee nach dem anderen und hat den Ernst der Lage unserer Schweizerischen Nationalbank (SNB) offensichtlich nicht begriffen.

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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2018: +0.3 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, July 2018
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.3% in nominal terms in July 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

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