Tag Archive: newsletter

No Swiss exemption from EU steel import cap

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

The European Union is imposing limits on steel coming into the bloc from Saturday in response to US President Donald Trump’s metals tariffs. The measures will also affect Swiss steel exports to the EU. The EU said on Friday that it is introducing new measures to prevent steel produced for the US market from flooding into Europe instead because of tariffs introduced by Trump.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days.  The important macro points are known.  The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase. 

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Fear Or Reflation Gold?

2019-02-04

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2019-02-04

Dollar Correlations 2016-2019
Gold is on fire, but why is it on fire? When the precious metals’ price falls, Stage 2, we have a pretty good idea what that means (collateral). But when it goes the other way, reflation or fear of deflation? Stage 1 or Stage 3? If it is Stage 1 reflation based on something like the Fed’s turnaround, then we would expect to find US$ markets trading in exactly the same way.

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Short Note on Jobs Report

2019-02-03

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2019-02-03

The January employment report was mixed.  It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy.  However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize. The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation.  It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the past two months, and notably a 90k cut in December's estimate, which brings it to 222k (from 312k). 

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Bond Curves Right All Along, But It Won’t Matter (Yet)

2019-02-03

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2019-02-03

Real GDP in the Eurodollar Era 1993-2017
Men have long dreamed of optimal outcomes. There has to be a better way, a person will say every generation. Freedom is far too messy and unpredictable. Everybody hates the fat tails, unless and until they realize it is outlier outcomes that actually mark progress. The idea was born in the eighties that Economics had become sufficiently advanced that the business cycle was no longer a valid assumption.

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Swiss wage gap between genders remains bafflingly wide

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

The pay gap between men and women in Switzerland has increased slightly, amounting to hundreds of francs per month on average. Men earned 19.6% more pay than female colleagues in 2016, compared to a 19.5% difference in 2012. While some of this gap can be explained by length of service, additional qualifications and the like, in more than four out of ten cases researchers could see no reason why women are paid less.

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Two Brinkmanship Games and a Possible Third

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

Some historians give Adlai Stevenson credit for inventing the word "brinkmanship" as part of his criticism of US foreign policy under Dulles, who said that "if you are scared of going to the brink, you lost." But surely we can agree that the tactic is as old as civilization. The idea is you take the issue to the very edge, risking a significant confrontation, to force a deal, is the way it may seem.

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Monthly Macro Monitor – February (VIDEO)

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

Alhambra Investments CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the latest information about markets, specific categories affecting the economy.

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New Crypto Valley Association President seeks to heal divisions

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

The new President of the Crypto Valley Association has vowed to turn around the divided organization. Daniel Haudenschild was elected on Thursday evening together with a new board following months of unrest. Speaking to swissinfo.ch two days after his shock departure from Swisscom Blockchain, Haudenschild said his priorities are to heal divisions, build bridges between other blockchain groups in Switzerland and bring international business and...

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FX Daily, February 01: Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Overview:  Weak manufacturing PMI readings are curbing risk appetites ahead of the US jobs report.  Growth concerns are top and center after dovish Fed and the Bundesbank's Weidmann warning that Germany may undershoot 1.5% growth this year, though the ink is barely dry on the central bank's forecast for 1.6% growth this year and next.

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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2018: -0.1 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, December 2018
01.02.2019 - Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.1% in nominal terms in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration.

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Half of Swiss Population Commutes Half an Hour to Work

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Nine out of ten employees in Switzerland – or four million people total – commuted to work last year, most of them to another municipality, and most by car. In 2017, the average one-way Swiss commute was 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) and took 30.6 minutes, reported the Federal Statistical Officeexternal link on Tuesday.

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It’s Not That There Might Be One, It’s That There Might Be Another One

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Lending Europe 1998-2018
It was a tense exchange. When even politicians can sense that there’s trouble brewing, there really is trouble brewing. Typically the last to figure these things out, if parliamentarians are up in arms it already isn’t good, to put it mildly. Well, not quite the last to know, there are always central bankers faithfully pulling up the rear of recognizing disappointing reality.

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FX Daily, January 31: Did Powell Toss in the Towel or was it a Tactical Retreat?

2019-01-31

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2019-01-31

Overview: The Fed's dovish tone and earnings news are the main drivers of the capital markets today, helping lift stocks, bonds, and currencies.  Large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, Hong Kong, China's CSI 300, India, and Indonesia, all rose more than 1%, putting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index in a good position to extend its rally for a fourth consecutive week. 

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Exports save the day for French GDP growth

2019-01-31

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2019-01-31

French Quarterly GDP, Q1 2016 - Q1 2018
Prospects for French economic growth are looking up, but disruptions to consumption are possible.French GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q4, the same pace as in Q3. The details reveal that Q4 exports surged significantly, while household consumption and investment slowed. This left growth for the year at +1.5%, following +2.3% in 2017.

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Nearly Half of Swiss Admit to Stealing

2019-01-31

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2019-01-31

Theft
Either at work, at a restaurant, on public transport or in a shop, nearly half of Swiss admit to stealing, according to a survey by moneyland.ch. 49% of the 1,500 questioned in the survey admitted to pocketing something without paying.

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So If Half of Facebook Accounts Are Fake… What Is Facebook Worth?

2019-01-31

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2019-01-31

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip
The social media space is absolutely ripe for a new entrant who demands arduous verification and constantly monitors its user base to eliminate cloned and fake accounts. How many accounts on Facebook are fake? Recent estimates of half could be low. Here's an experiment: open a Facebook account with a name that cannot possibly be anyone else's real name, for example, Johns XQR Citizenry.

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Swisscom Blockchain head departs abruptly

2019-01-31

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2019-01-31

Daniel Haudenschild has stepped down as Chief Executive Officer of Swisscom Blockchain with immediate effect. The state-owned telecommunications group gave no reason for the shock move by the top manager and shareholder of its blockchain advisory unit. News of Haudenshild’s departure clearly came out of the blue for the Swiss blockchain sector.

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FX Daily, January 30: She Can’t Accept No

2019-01-30

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2019-01-30

Overview: The UK Prime Minister has two weeks to strike a new deal with the EC over the Irish backstop or return to Parliament in mid-February to consider alternatives, six weeks before Brexit. Sterling has recovered about half of yesterday's drop. The Australian dollar jump back to $0.7200 was aided by the nearly 10% jump in iron ore price after Vale announced a sharp reduction in output.

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Swiss Watchmakers Celebrate a Vintage Year

2019-01-30

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2019-01-30

Swiss watch exports grew by 6.3% in 2018, breaking the CHF21 billion ($21.2 billion) mark. This increase, largely due to Asian markets, is set to continue this year despite uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy.

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