Tag Archive: newsletter

Is the Fed too focused on corporates?

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

US Consumers' Debt Servicing Burden Has Climbed Sharply,1989-2019
Fed dovishness is helping to curb financing costs for corporates but does not seem to be percolating down to the US consumer, whose debt-servicing costs are rising. This could be something to watch. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s leading priority now is to help sustain the US business cycle, hence the concept of ‘insurance’ rate cuts put forward by Fed chairman Jerome Powell, with some echoes of Alan Greenspan’s philosophy in the 1990s.

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How to Fix GDP, Report 14 Jul

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, we looked at the idea of a national balance sheet, as a better way to measure the economy than GDP (which is production + destruction). The national balance sheet would take into account both assets and liabilities. If we take on another $1,000,000 debt to buy a $1,000,000 asset, then we have not added any equity.

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FX Daily, July 15: Marking Time on Monday

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

Overview: The new record highs in US equities ahead of the weekend coupled with Chinese data that suggested the economy was gaining some traction as Q2 wound down is helping underpin risk appetites to start the week. Japanese markets were closed today, but equities were mostly firmer in the Asia Pacific regions, markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India firmed. 

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2019: -1.4 percent YoY, -0,5 percent MoM

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in June 2019 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with June 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.4%.

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FX Weekly Preview: What to Watch if Fed and ECB are Committed to Easing

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

There is little doubt after the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony last week and the FOMC minutes that a rate cut will be delivered at the end of the month. Similarly, after comments by several ECB officials and the record of their recent meetin.g confirms it too is prepared to adjust policy. The timing of the ECB's move is more debatable, an adjustment at the July 25 meeting appears to have increased.

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Old Swiss trains get chance at new life online

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

The Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) is selling its old locomotives on the Internet. Control cars, rails, switches and a firefighting train with a CHF1 million ($1 million) price tag are among the vintage vehicles on sale. You will be hard pressed to find anything for less than CHF25,000 on SBBresale.ch, according to the Sunday editions of the German-language Blick newspaper and French-language Le Matin.

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Competition watchdog fines car leasing companies for collusion

2019-07-14

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2019-07-14

The Swiss competition commission (COMCO) has fined eight car leasing firms a total of CHF30 million ($30.4 million) for having swapped information on rates. The fines were announced on Thursday and come after some years of regular and systematic information exchanges between the companies on interest rates, COMCO announced.

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Number below poverty line rises in Switzerland

2019-07-14

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2019-07-14

In Switzerland, the revenue poverty line is income of CHF 27,108 (US$ 27,490) a year for someone living alone and CHF 47,880 (US$ 48,550) for a family of four. In 2017, the percentage of Switzerland’s population living below the poverty line was 8.2% or 675,000 people. In 2016, the percentage was 7.6%.

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As Chinese Factory Deflation Sets In, A ‘Dovish’ Powell Leans on ‘Uncertainty’

2019-07-14

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2019-07-14

China Price Stability, 2007-2019
It’s a clever bit of misdirection. In one of the last interviews he gave before passing away, Milton Friedman talked about the true strength of central banks. It wasn’t money and monetary policy, instead he admitted that what they’re really good at is PR. Maybe that’s why you really can’t tell the difference Greenspan to Bernanke to Yellen to Powell no matter what happens.

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Half a million Swiss jobs vacancies predicted in 10 years

2019-07-13

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2019-07-13

Retiring baby-boomers and a shifting job market could mean a shortfall of up to 500,000 workers in Switzerland over the next decade, UBS forecasts. The bank proposes plugging the hole not only by immigration, but also by boosting more old and female workers. Basing its projections on long-term employment statistics, the bank says that the number of jobs to be filled could be anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 over the next decade.

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Powell’s Congressional testimony sets the scene for rate cut

2019-07-13

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2019-07-13

Median Fed estimate for neutral rate, Fed rate
The Fed will likely cut rates by 25 basis points on 31 July, with a similar cut possible as early as September.During his testimony before the House of Representatives on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell repeated the dovish signals he gave at the Fed press conference in June, hinting at a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 31 July.

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FX Daily, July 12: Greenback Limps into the Weekend

2019-07-12

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2019-07-12

Overview:  Higher than expected US CPI and the second tepid reception to a US bond auction this week pushed US yields higher and helped stall the equity momentum. Asia Pacific yields, especially in Australia and New Zealand jumped 8-10 bp in response, and Spanish and Portuguese bonds bore the burden in Europe. 

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Keith Weiner, PhD, CEO & Founder of Monetary Metals

2019-07-12

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2019-07-12

Keith Weiner, PhD, CEO & Founder of Monetary Metals, believes interest rates must go lower to keep interest expense under control and result in a deflationary credit implosion.

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“Alexa, How Do We Subvert Big Tech’s Orwellian Internet-of-Things Surveillance?”

2019-07-12

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2019-07-12

Algorithmic Bill of Rights
Convenience is the sales pitch, but the real goal is control in service of maximizing profits and extending state power. When every device in your life is connected to the Internet (the Internet of Things), your refrigerator will schedule an oil change for your car--or something like that--and it will be amazingly wunnerful. 

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La BNS aspire l’épargne des Suisses. Entretien avec Vincent Held

2019-07-12

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2019-07-12

Depuis une année, il ne se passe pas un jour sans que Donald Trump critique violemment la politique monétaire de la banque centrale américaine, pas un jour sans que le fantasque locataire de la Maison-Blanche crache son fiel au visage de Jerome Powell, le président de cette Réserve fédérale amarrée à une ligne beaucoup trop rigoureuse à ses yeux.

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Hypothekarkredite: Selbstregulierung soll Risikoappetit bremsen

2019-07-12

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2019-07-12

Die grössten Risiken für die Finanzstabilität gehen für die inlandorientierten Banken unverändert vom Hypothekar- und Immobilienmarkt aus, warnt die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) im diesjährigen Bericht zur Finanzstabilität vom 13. Juni. Obwohl die Preise 2018 bei den Wohnrenditeliegenschaften leicht sanken, bleibe die Gefahr einer Preiskorrektur in diesem Segment besonders hoch.

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Swiss exports to the US significantly exceed those to Germany for the first time

2019-07-12

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2019-07-12

According to an analysis by the Swiss broadcaster RTS, Switzerland’s EU exports have declined in recent years. Over the first quarter of 2019, for the first time, exports to the US exceeded those to Germany by more than CHF 1 billion reaching CHF 15.7 billion. Exports to the US have risen from 8.3% to 16.3% of total Swiss exports over the last 30 years.

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Some 60 percent of all Swiss banknotes are hoarded, study finds

2019-07-11

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2019-07-11

The amount of Swiss CHF1,000 notes that are hoarded rather than being used in the economy for payments could be as high as 87%, a study by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown. The report, “Demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence”, estimates the volume of Swiss banknotes being stashed – rather than spent or invested – over the period 1950-2017.

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FX Daily, July 11: Powell Spurs Equity and Bond Market Rally, While the Greenback Falls Out of Favor

2019-07-11

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2019-07-11

Overview:  Fed's Powell confirmed a Fed rate cut at the end of this month by warning that uncertainties since the June FOMC had "dimmed the outlook" and that muted price pressures may be more persistent.  It ignited an equity and bond market rally (bullish steepening) while the dollar was sold.

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Hong Kong unrest

2019-07-11

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2019-07-11

Gini Coefficient of Selected Countries / Regions
The extradition bill is 'dead' but political turmoil is not over yet.Since early June, a series of large-scale demonstrations took place in Hong Kong in protest of proposed legislation that would allow extradition of criminal suspects to certain jurisdictions, including mainland China.

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