Tag Archive: newsletter

Gold Consolidates Near All Time High In British Pounds

2019-07-26

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2019-07-26

Gold Price, 10-years
Sterling is under pressure today and gold near all time record highs in sterling (see chart) due to the likelihood that Britain’s ruling Conservative party will elect Boris Johnson (aka ‘BoJo’) as its new leader and Prime Minister today.

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FX Daily, July 25: ECB Takes Center Stage

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

The euro remains stuck in its trough below $1.1150 ahead of the ECB meeting. The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. The yen continues to resist the draw of the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are lower. The Turkish lira is weaker ahead of its central bank meeting, which is expected to deliver a large cut (~250 bp).

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Swiss Railway Tracks Buckle under the Heat

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

The hottest day of the year in Switzerland caused a headache for the Swiss Federal Railways. Track damage occurred on Wednesday in the Zurich Oberland, canton Aargau near Brugg and in the Geneva area. Railways spokesman Raffael Hirt confirmed that lines had been interrupted in Zurich between Pfäffikon and Wetzikon and in Aargau between Wildegg and Brugg.

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Germany Struggles On

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, Jan 2006 - 2019
The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis would strike.

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BNS, les taux vont encore être baissés

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

Evolution de CHF contre EUR
De son bilan démesuré supérieur au PIB suisse. De ne pas avoir vendu les euros achetés quand elle le pouvait. D’avoir dû abandonner le taux plancher de 1.2 CHF pour 1 EUR sous la pression du marché (je l’avais prévu, mais la BNS a quand même tenu 3 ans et demi). Qu’avec les taux négatifs, les caisses de pensions (donc les retraites) subissent des ponctions anormales.

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Financial Media Elite Defensively Bash “Useless” Gold

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

At least the Financial Times now has come clean about its hostility to gold – as well as to free markets and elementary journalism. Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) friend Chris Kniel of Orinda, California, sent to the newspaper's chief economic columnist, Martin Wolf, the excellent summary of gold and silver market manipulation just written by gold researcher Ronan Manly.

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What Does It Mean That Real Estate, Not Equities, Is Driving Monetary Policy?

2019-07-25

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2019-07-25

New Home Sales Population Adjusted, 1987-2019
In the world of assets classes, I don’t believe it is equities which hold the Federal Reserve’s attention. After the 2006-11 debacle, the big bust, you can at least understand why policymakers might be more attuned to real estate no matter how the NYSE trades. It may be a decade ago, but that’s the one thing out of the Global Financial Crisis which was seared into the consciousness of everyone who lived through it.

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FX Daily, July 24: Poor PMI Weighs on Euro Ahead of ECB

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, July 24
Overview:  Disappointing flash PMI pushed an already offered euro lower ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. European bonds rallied and equities, amid a rash of earnings, is trying to extend the advance for a fourth consecutive session.  Italian and Spanish 10-year benchmark yields are off four-six basis points, while core bond yields are off two-three basis points.

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Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates remain docile despite yesterday’s UK political developments

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

Movement for the Pound to Swiss Franc pair limited. Pound to Swiss franc exchange rates have remained relatively rangebound this week, despite yesterday’s political developments inside the UK. Whilst the GBP/CHF pair is historically less volatile than GBP/EUR for an example, a range of only two cents movement over the past month is testament to the current market uncertainty.

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DM credit caught between opposing forces

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

EURO AND US IG CREDIT SPREADS
Despite the impressive year-to-date performance of corporate credit, we remain prudent about prospects in the remainder of 2019.Corporate bonds have posted stellar total returns year to date, thanks to the positive combination of lower sovereign yields and tighter credit spreads.

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Switzerland has the Highest Underemployment Rate in Europe

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

Swiss Women Work Time
2018, 7% of Switzerland's workforce claimed they would like to work more. Women are the most affected. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) figures publsihed on Tuesday, Switzerland’s labour pool has 830,000 people. This includes 356,000 underemployed individuals, 231,000 unemployed and 243,000 people who are looking for work but not available to start immediately.

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World growth forecast revised down

2019-07-24

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2019-07-24

World Real GDP Growth, 1985-2019
Signs of a potential global recession are appearing, such as a fall in fixed investment and industrial production and a build-up in unwanted inventories. We are revising down our world growth forecast.The effects of a negative shock dating back to early 2018 are still being propagated throughout the world economy.

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FX Daily, July 23: Debt Deal Help Lifts the Dollar

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

The gains in US equities and the apparent US budget agreement has underpinned equities today and the US dollar. Asia Pacific equities recouped yesterday's losses, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx is posting gains for the third consecutive session, helped by some earning beats, to probe two-week highs. US shares are firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are mixed with the Asia Pacific softer and European firmer.

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The Fake Economy, Report 21 Jul

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

Gold and Silver Price
Folks in the liberty movement often say that the economy is fake. But this does not persuade anyone. It’s just preaching to the choir! We hope that this series on GDP provides more effective ammunition to argue with the Left-Right-Wall-Street-Main-Street-Capitalists-Socialists.

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Semaña grande for Sánchez

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

Spain Generic Government 10Y Yield, 2015-2019
The interim Spanish prime minister, the socialist Pedro Sánchez, will aim to form a government this week. Outside the political noise, the Spanish economy continues to do well.April’s elections in Spain resulted in a fragmented parliament, making the formation of a government complicated.

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Swiss tourist chief warns against Europe-only strategy

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

The director of Switzerland’s tourism marketing company has dismissed criticism that the country is overrun by Asian tourists. Martin Nydegger said concerns by the local population about too many tourists should be taken seriously. But the perception of overtourism was mistaken and potentially damaging.

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Scientific Long-Term Study Confirms: Seasonality is the Best Investment Strategy!

2019-07-23

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2019-07-23

Excess Returns
A Pleasant Surprise. You can probably imagine that I am convinced of the merits of seasonality. However, even I was surprised that an investment strategy based on seasonality is apparently leaving numerous far more popular strategies in the dust. And yet, this is exactly what a recent comprehensive scientific study asserts – a study that probably considers a longer time span than most: it examines up to 217 years of market history!

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FX Daily, July 22: Greenback is Mostly Firmer to Start New Week, while the Euro is Pinned near $1.12

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

What promises to be an eventful two weeks has begun quietly. The ECB, Fed, BOJ, and BOE will meet over the next fortnight. The central banks of Turkey and Russia meet this week and are expected to cut rates. The UK will have a new Prime Minister.

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FX Weekly Preview: Highlights in the Week Ahead

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

Three events that will capture the market's attention next week: The consequences of the Japanese election, the first look at US Q1 GDP, and the ECB meeting. The central banks of Turkey and Russia also meet. Both are expected to cut interest rates, following rate cuts in the middle of last week by South Korea, Indonesia, and South Africa.

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Hildebrand hatte SNB nicht verstanden: Sie muss zugunsten eigener Wirtschaft investieren

2019-07-22

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2019-07-22

Bilderberg, Gerzensee und „Franken-Rütli“ – das sind alles Geschwister im Geiste: undurchschaubar, informell, nicht greifbar, gegen aussen, eine Versammlung der Macht, mit dem Vorspuren von Entscheiden grösster wirtschaftlicher und politischer Tragweite.

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