Tag Archive: newsletter

Cool Video: Gold and the Dollar

2020-07-25

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2020-07-25

I have been talking with Neils Christensen, editor at Kitco news, for several years about the dollar, gold, and my read of the capital markets more broadly.  We had a chance to discuss recent developments yesterday. I began my career at a small newswire, and Kitco reminds me of it.

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The (Other) Shoe Of Unemployment

2020-07-25

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2020-07-25

Global PMIs & Sentiment, 2017-2020
After raising the specter of a rebound stall, the idea before limited to Japan and Germany was abruptly given further weight today by US jobless claims numbers. For the first time since the peak at the end of March, the weekly tally of initial filings increased from the prior week.

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Three Reasons Representative Democracy Doesn’t Work

2020-07-25

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2020-07-25

In representative democracies, voters ostensibly control the state through the politicians they vote for. However, most representative democracies fall far short of this goal. Three of the reasons for the trouble are the problems of scale, bundling, and omission.

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FX Daily, July 24: Strong PMIs Have Limited Impact as Profit-Taking Hits Equities

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

US stocks stumbled yesterday, and the S&P 500 nearly gave back the week's gains with its roughly 1.25% loss, the largest of the month.  The NASDAQ 100 fell to two-week lows.  Slower cloud growth at Microsoft and a delay in the next generation of chips at Intel were among the drags.

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UBS Investor Sentiment and ElectionWatch: Politics and US elections temper wealthy investors’ rising optimism

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Most wealthy investors and business owners globally have said they plan to adjust their portfolios based on who wins the US election, with almost half seeing November’s vote as one of their top concerns, according to the new Investor Sentiment study by UBS, the world's leading global wealth manager.

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A Japanese Stall?

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Japan PMIs, 2018-2020
In sharp contrast to the sentimental deference towards central bank stimulus exhibited by Germany’s ZEW, for example, similar Japanese surveys are starting to describe potential trouble developing. Like Germany, Japan is a bellwether country and a pretty reliable indicator of global economy performance.

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Inflation/Deflation: The Economy Is an Elephant

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Retail square footage per person
This is the key dynamic of the economy going forward: defaults on debt, declining wealth as assets are relentlessly repriced lower and sharp declines in income due to layoffs and debt defaults. The economy is like an elephant surrounded by blindfolded economists and pundits: what each blindfolded person reports about the elephant depends on what part they happen to touch.

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One of These Silver Days is Not Like the Other, 23 July

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Silver price vs Silver basis
Yesterday, the price of silver spiked about 10%. We wrote that it was driven by: “…buying of physical metal.” And we added: “This is a pretty good signal that a bull market may be returning to silver. Let’s watch the basis and price action closely and see how it develops, before we join the pack…”

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Modern Monetary Theory’s Connection to Soviet-Era Money

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

MMT starts to make a little more sense when thinking of it as comparable to money systems used under the USSR and the old Soviet Bloc.

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Reading The Market’s Postmodern Mind

2020-07-24

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2020-07-24

Defining Pre-modernism, Modernism, and Postmodernism
No matter how you slice it, markets are human. This even applies to the “algos” as it’s we who write their mechanistic marching orders. Thus, understanding human behavior can be helpful in assessing and anticipating market moves. There’s no choice in the fact that we all need a philosophy to live.

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FX Daily, July 23: Powerful Momentum is Still Evident in the Foreign Exchange Market

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

The powerful momentum moves in the capital markets continues unabated by escalating US-China tensions and continued spread of the virus. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Tokyo was closed for a holiday, but several other large markets in the region, like China, South Korea, and Taiwan markets slipped lower, while Hong Kong, Australia, and India advanced.

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Weekly view – Fog warning

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

Coronavirus cases in the US are rising and high frequency data in the US such as retail foot traffic and employee working hours have flatlined. Meanwhile, in Q2 results, USD36 bn in trading and fixed-income revenues managed to make up for higher loan provisions for US banks.

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UBS Secures Naming Rights to New York’s Next Premier Entertainment and Sports Venue and Future Home of the New York Islanders

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

State of the art UBS Arena at Belmont Park, developed in partnership with Oak View Group, the New York Islanders, and Sterling Project Development, is projected to open for the 2021-22 National Hockey League season.

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Group challenges law behind Covid-19 tracing app

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

A committee has launched a referendum against changes made to the Epidemics Act to allow the introduction of the SwissCovid tracing app. The citizens say they’re concerned about data security.

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About that Spike in the Silver Price… 22 July

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

Silver price vs Silver Basis
The price of silver has just spiked up about $2.00—that’s about 10%. All the usual suspects have been calling for silver to skyrocket. With some amusement, we have been watching ads from a guy known for savvy junior mining stock investments, who has been calling for gold to go up for a while.

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Market Sentiment Boosted by Stimulus Outlook

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

Today, it’s all about the stimulus; the dollar remains under pressure. Mnuchin and Pelosi kick off the first round of talks for the next stimulus package this afternoon; it’s another quiet day in terms of US data; Canada reports May retail sales EU finalized its recovery package; UK reported June public sector net borrowing; Hungary is expected to cut rates 15 bp to 0.60%.

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Could the Economy Survive a W-Shaped Recovery?

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

In the weeks following the United States shutting down over what has turned out to be mainly a nursing home epidemic, the economic geniuses on CNBC and Bloomberg discussed the various letter recoveries.

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Inflation: This Time Is Different

2020-07-23

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2020-07-23

Bank lending is contracting, and it is important to understand why. At this stage of the credit cycle, which began expanding following the aftermath of the Lehman crisis over a decade ago, a sharp contraction of bank credit to nonfinancials is normal.

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FX Daily, July 22: Pang of Uncertainty Spurs Profit-Taking

2020-07-22

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2020-07-22

The optimism among investors appears to have evaporated in the face of new US-Chinese tensions, possible delays in the next US fiscal stimulus, and new record virus infections in Australia and Hong Kong. US stocks had pared early gains yesterday, and the high-flying NASDAQ finished lower after setting new record highs. 

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Swiss banks eye Hong Kong clients for pro-democracy ties

2020-07-22

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2020-07-22

Global wealth managers are examining whether their clients in Hong Kong have ties to the city’s pro-democracy movement, in an attempt to avoid getting caught in the crosshairs of China’s new national security law, according to six people with knowledge of the matter.

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