Tag Archive: newsletter

UBS fined and denied right to sponsor IPOs in Hong Kong

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Swiss bank UBS has been fined HK$375 million (CHF48 million) for irregularities involving three IPOs it had help list on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2009. Its licence to sponsor IPOs in the city was also suspended for one year.

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FX Daily, March 14: Another UK Vote, but No Closure

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Overview:  The Brexit drama continues to play out, and the Withdrawal Bill that has been twice defeated is ironically not dead yet. Today's vote, in fact, is predicated on another "meaningful vote" before seeking an extension.  Sterling remains firm near yesterday's highs, which were the best levels since last June.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2019: -0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in February 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with February 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.7%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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ECB Forward Guidance: the Devil is in the Detail

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

ECB Policy Rates, 2006 - 2019
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new long-term refinancing package for banks (called TLTRO-III) and made clear that interest rates would not be raised this year. While these measures were expected, they have come earlier than we thought.

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How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

S-Curve of Expansion, Maturation, Stagnation and Collapse
There is a grand, majestic tragedy in the inevitable collapse of once-thriving states and empires: it all seemed so permanent at its peak, so godlike in its power, and then slowly but surely, too many grandiose, unrealistic promises were made to too many elites and constituencies, and then as growth decays to stagnation, the only way to maintain the status quo is to appear to meet all the promises by creating money out of thin air, i.e. debauching...

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Court confirms legal weed should be taxed as tobacco

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

The Federal Administrative Court has upheld a decision by Swiss customs to tax legal marijuana leaves to the same extent as tobacco. In its decision published on Wednesday, the St Gallen court said that “fake” marijuana – i.e. cannabis containing less than 1% tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) – was sold primarily to be smoked, and therefore should be taxed similarly to tobacco.

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FX Daily, March 13: Still Waiting for Brexit Climax

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

The Brexit drama continues to command attention. A vote on leaving without an agreement will be held today, and if that fails, there will be a vote tomorrow on an extension. Meanwhile, the first increase in headline US CPI in four months failed to impress as the year-over-year pace fell to 18-month lows.

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1000-Franc Note Enters Circulation Today

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

1000-franc Banknotes Circulation Today
Issuance of the new 1000-franc note presented a week ago begins today, 13 March. The Swiss National Bank’s ‘Swiss Banknotes’ app has now been updated to include the new note. The app, which has been downloaded some 110,000 times, can be obtained free of charge from the Apple (itunes.apple.com) and Google Play (play.google.com) app stores.

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German Economy Set to Recover

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

German Government Budget Balance, 2002 - 2018
Germany’s economy weakened significantly in the second half of 2018. External headwinds remain strong and, in an environment where monetary-policy ammunition remains limited, all eyes have shifted towards German fiscal policy, especially as the country has generated significant budget surpluses since 2011.

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Downturn Rising, No ‘Glitch’ In Retail Sales

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

U.S. Retail Sales, Jun 2011 - Dec 2018
You just don’t see $4 billion monthly retail sales revisions, in either direction. Advance estimates are changed all the time, each monthly figure will be recalculated twice after its initial release. Typically, though, the subsequent revisions are minor rarely amounting to a billion. Four times that?

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FX Daily, March 12: Wave of Optimism Sweeps through the Capital Markets

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

Last minutes statements meant to clarify what many MPs find to be the most odious part of the Withdrawal Bill, the backstop for the Irish border is goosed global equity markets even though it does not seem as if the Withdrawal Bill has changed one iota. And after the big rally in US shares yesterday, there might have been follow-through buying in any case today. Asian markets did not disappoint.

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Downturn Rising, German Industry

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

US Treasury Yield Curve, Aug 2007 - Jan 2019
You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any more than they were.

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Here’s The Problem: The Pie Is Shrinking

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
Scrape away the churn and distraction and the problem is simple: the pie of prosperity is shrinking, and the "fixes" are failing. The status quo arrangement is based on the endless expansion of "growth" and debt, which is the monetary fuel of more, more, more of everything: money, energy, resources, goods, services, jobs, wealth and income, all of which make up the elixir of prosperity.

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Swiss-German venture aims to build blockchain trading marketplace

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

A consortium of Swiss firms has joined forces with Germany’s main stock exchange to create a distributed ledger technology (DLT) trading system that would rival one being built by the Swiss stock exchange. The alliance is between Deutsche Börse, Switzerland’s state-owned telecoms company Swisscom, budding Swiss crypto bank Sygnum, the Daura platform for listing tokenised company shares and financial services start-up Custodigit.

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The Duality of Money, Report 10 Mar

2019-03-11

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2019-03-11

Marginal Productivity of Debt 1952-2018
This is a pair of photographs taken by Keith Weiner, for a high school project. It seemed a fitting picture for the dual nature of money, the dual nature of wood both as logs to be consumed and dimensional lumber to be used to construct buildings.

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FX Daily, March 11: Greenback Starts New Week Decidedly Mixed, with Brexit Anxiety Weighing on Sterling

2019-03-11

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2019-03-11

Overview:  Asian shares recovered from opening losses to finish mostly higher, with the Shanghai Composite up nearly 2% and India tacking on 1% after the election was called, starting April 11.  European markets, led by energy, communication, and materials sectors, is up about 0.5% through midday. The S&P 500, which closed lower every day last week is looking a little firmer. 

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FX Weekly Preview: Brexit Comes to a Head, and while Europe and US Data Rebound, the Equity Rally Falters

2019-03-11

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2019-03-11

Brexit comes to a head. By nearly all reckoning, the Withdrawal Bill will be resoundingly defeated in the House of Commons on March 12. The margin of defeat may not match the first rejection, but it will be the death knell to the path that had been negotiated for a year and a half.

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Report proposes third-class rail tickets for budget travellers in Switzerland

2019-03-11

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2019-03-11

Swiss railway companies should introduce a third-class category for passengers on a budget, a report commissioned by the Federal Office of Transport has recommended. The NZZ am Sonntag newspaper said on Sunday that a recent federal government report, commissioned by an external expert group, had recommended introducing “third class aircraft-style seating for maximum capacity at favourable prices”.

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The Source of Killer Inflation: Services

2019-03-11

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2019-03-11

The soaring cost of services is driven by a number of factors. What will the future bring: fire (inflation) or ice (deflation)? The short answer: both, but in very different doses. Goods that are tradeable and exposed to technologically driven commodification will decline in price (deflation) while untradeable services that are difficult to commoditize will increase in price (inflation), generating a self-reinforcing feedback loop of wage-price...

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Why there is so much egg pasta in Switzerland

2019-03-10

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2019-03-10

Strolling through the pasta aisle of a Swiss supermarket, someone new to Switzerland might conclude that the locals prefer egg pasta over the eggless variety. And, while that might to some extent be true, there is another reason.

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