Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, April 30: Dollar Pares more Gains as EMU GDP Surprise

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Overview: The S&P 500 set a new record high and close yesterday, but the lift to global markets was not strong enough to overcome the disappointing Chinese PMI.  Although Chinese equities traded higher on ideas that the news will spur additional stimulative measures, other Asian markets were mixed. 

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Pound to Swiss franc forecast – Brexit impasse means a fragile pound

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Brexit Limbo. At present Theresa May is in talks with Jeremy Corbyn in order to try and come up with a mutually acceptable deal to put to Brussels. The problem is May can’t even get a deal that is acceptable within her own party let alone Labour as well. Her deal has been rejected three times and Brussels are stone walling us on the Irish border.

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Swiss wage index 2018: Nominal wage increase of 0.5 percent in 2018, real wages decrease by -0.4 percent

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real wages 1990-2018
30.04.2019 - The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.5% on average in 2018 compared with 2017. It settled at 101.6 points (base 2015 = 100). Given an average annual inflation rate of +0.9%, real wages registered a decrease of -0.4% (100.5 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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More asylum seekers find work in Switzerland

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Over one-third of all asylum seekers and refugees in Switzerland are currently employed, according to State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) figures. But most of the jobs are precarious and the vast majority continue to receive state benefits. In one year, the employment rate for asylum seekers in Switzerland rose from 27% in March 2018 to 32% today, according to a report by the Ostschweiz and Zentralschweiz am Sonntag newspapers that cite recent...

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Cool Video: Q1 US GDP Optics may Mark Near-Term Peak in Divergence Theme

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua to talk about US GDP with David Riley from BlueBay Asset Management. Here is a link to a 2.5-minute clip. The initial estimate of Q1 US growth was well more than nearly anyone expected. The details were underwhelming as the consumption was halved and the GDP deflator was halved. Final private domestic sales, which strips away inventories, trade, and government spending rose 1.3%, the least more than five years.

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Is Keith Weiner an Iconoclast? Report 28 Apr

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Gold and Silver Price
We have a postscript to our ongoing discussion of inflation. A reader pointed out that Levis 501 jeans are $39.19 on Amazon (in Keith’s size—Amazon advertises prices as low as $16.31, which we assume is for either a very small size that uses less fabric, or an odd size that isn’t selling). Think of the enormity of this. The jeans were $50 in 1983. After 36 years of relentless inflation (or hot air about inflation), the price is down to $39.31. Down...

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There Are Two Little Problems with “Taxing the Rich” to Pay for “Free Everything”

2019-04-30

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2019-04-30

Federal government total expenditures, 1960-2010
No super-wealthy individual or household is going to pay billions in additional taxes when $10 to $20 million will purchase political adjustments. The 2020 election cycle has begun, and a popular campaign promise is "free everything" paid for by new taxes on the super-wealthy. Who doesn't like free stuff? Who will vote for whomever offers them free stuff? No wonder it's a popular campaign promise.

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FX Daily, April 29: The Busy Week Begins Slowly

2019-04-29

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2019-04-29

Overview: It promises to be an eventful week with the FOMC and BOE meeting, US jobs report and EMU April CPI and Q1 GDP on tap.  However, the week is marked by the May Day holiday in the middle of the week.  Japan's markets are closed all week, while China's markets are closed from mid-week on for an extended holiday.  The week has begun on a decidedly consolidative tone. 

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Switzerland slides one place in 2019 press freedom ranking

2019-04-29

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2019-04-29

In 2019, Switzerland lost one place slipping from 5th to 6th place out of 180, according to the latest world ranking of press freedom by the organisation Reporters Without Borders. The change was largely driven by the stronger performance of Denmark, which moved up into 5th place.

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Globally Synchronized…

2019-04-29

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2019-04-29

WTO Global Trade, 2007-2019
The economic sickness is predictably spreading. While unexpected in most of the world which still, somehow, depends on central banking forecasts, it really has been almost inevitable. From the very start, just the utterance of the word “decoupling” was the kiss of death.

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Swiss vote could cause chaos at Zurich and Geneva airports

2019-04-28

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2019-04-28

A referendum on revising gun laws scheduled for 19 May 2019 could cause major disruption at airports in Zurich and Geneva if it succeeds, according to various newspapers.If the vote passes it might eventually lead to the exclusion of Switzerland from the Schengen area.

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Durably Sideways

2019-04-28

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2019-04-28

Durable Goods New Orders, SA 2013-2019
Next month, in the durable goods series, the Census Bureau will release the results of its annual benchmark changes. In May 2019, the agency will revise the seasonal adjustments going back to January 2002. Unadjusted data will not be, well, further adjusted.

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The 3 things driving Geneva’s residents to shop in France

2019-04-27

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2019-04-27

A recent study by Geneva’s department of economic development (DDE) looks at the shopping habits of its residents and the residents of neighbouring Vaud and neighbouring France – an area including Nyon and parts of the French Ain and Haute Savoie regions.

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World’s Central Banks Want More Gold – India May Buy 1.5M Ounces In 2019

2019-04-27

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2019-04-27

Billion Hoard 2009-2018
Royal Bank of India (RBI) may buy another 1.5 million oz this year according to OCBCMany other central banks including large creditor nations Russia and China are also adding to gold holdings. India’s central bank is likely to join counterparts in Russia and China scooping up gold this year, adding to its record holdings and lending support to worldwide gold bullion demand as top economies diversify their reserves.

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Push Them Hard Enough and the Productive Class Will Opt Out of Servitude

2019-04-27

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2019-04-27

State and Local Spending vs Private GDP, 1950-2010
People love their big paychecks, but they also value their sanity. One of the most astonishing manifestations of disconnected-from-reality hubris is public authorities' sublime confidence that employers and entrepreneurs will continue starting and operating enterprises no matter how difficult and costly it becomes to keep the doors open, much less net a profit.

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FX Daily, April 26: Greenback Consolidates Ahead of Q1 GDP

2019-04-26

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2019-04-26

Overview:  The equities are finishing softly after the rally stalled in the middle of the week.  The large markets in Asia fell, led by China, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third session, the longest losing streak in two months.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended an eight-day advance with a two-day loss coming into today where it is a little softer. 

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Oldest Swiss school in South America gets ministerial visit

2019-04-26

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2019-04-26

Foreign Affairs Minister Ignazio Cassis, currently visiting Chile, has hailed education ties as he visited the country’s Swiss school abroad, the Colegio Suizo. The school, the oldest Swiss school abroad in South America and the only official Swiss school abroad in Chile, is celebrating its 80th anniversary this year.

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SWOT Analysis:Venezuela Sells $400 Million Worth Of Gold Bullion

2019-04-26

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2019-04-26

Unpleasant Surprises, for Gold 2018-2019
The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 3.52 percent as CPM Group noted that the price could climb to $1,800 on supply constraints. Gold traders and analysts switched from bullish to mostly neutral or bearish on the yellow metal this week, according to the weekly Bloomberg survey.

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The Feedback Loop of Doom: When Mobile Creatives and Capital Abandon Unaffordable, Dysfunctional Cities

2019-04-26

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2019-04-26

State and Local Spending vs. Private GDP Multiples of 1950 Values
When the 4% who generate the jobs and tax revenues have had enough and leave, the effects quickly impact the 64%. At the end of any trend, everyone's a true believer: this trend is so enduring, so broad-based, so based on unchanging fundamentals that it will never ever reverse.

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FX Daily, April 25: Equities Waiver, the Dollar Does Not

2019-04-25

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2019-04-25

Overview:  After closing at record highs on Tuesday, the S&P 500 slipped yesterday, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 snapped an eight-session advance.  Asia followed suit, with the Shanghai Composite posting its biggest loss (~2.4%) in over a month.  It is off about 4.6% this week, which if sustained tomorrow, would be the largest loss in six months.

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