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Tag Archive: newsletter

‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

2018-09-02

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2018-09-02

Canada BoC ON Target, August 2018
The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the UST curve is askew, it’s more important given how many of them are.

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The Big Picture 18-24-Month Outlook: Some Preliminary Projections

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

The winding down of the North's summer provides a suitable time to consider not the near-term outlook, which many investors do on a daily basis, but to reflect on where we are heading down the road a bit. What will the next 18-24 months hold? Of course, we harbor no illusions of prescient vision and accept the hazards of the assignment and so should the reader.

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Ongoing roadblocks stifle growth of Swiss banks

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

Swiss banks are withstanding the pressure of ongoing headwinds, but real progress continues to be stalled by political and economic roadblocks, the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) said on Thursday. Releasing its annual Banking Barometer, which measures the performance of the sector in 2017, the SBA found that aggregate profits (profits minus losses) across Switzerland’s 253 banks rose by nearly a quarter to CHF9.8 billion ($10.1 billion).

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Why Is Productivity Dead in the Water?

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

US Productivity Growth, 1980 - 2016
As the accompanying chart shows, productivity in the U.S. has been declining since the early 2000s. This trend mystifies economists, as the tremendous investments in software, robotics, networks and mobile computing would be expected to boost productivity, as these tools enable every individual who knows how to use them to produce more value.

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Italian 2019 draft budget: a bumpy road ahead

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

Italian Fiscal Timeline
Tensions between Rome and Brussels could lead to significant market volatility before an agreement is found. September will be a key month for gauging the Italian government’s budgetary plans for 2019. The government has communicated neither a precise timeline for implementing the measures announced in its ‘contract for government’ nor a precise cost analysis for these measures.

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Costs of owning a home in Switzerland set to rise for some

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

Swiss-house
Currently, home owners in Switzerland must pay tax on fictional rent, calculated based on a home’s size and location. At the same time home owners get to deduct mortgage interest and home maintenance costs from their taxable income.

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FX Daily, August 31: Month-End Adjustments and Tentative Stabilization in Emerging Markets Ease Demand for Dollars but Not Yen

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

The dramatic price action seen yesterday among several emerging market currencies is eased today, but here at month-end, demand for risk-assets is tentative at best. The macro backdrop, including the increase in US core inflation, expectations for continued hikes by the Federal Reserve, and unambiguous signals that trade tensions will increase in the coming weeks dampens the risk appetite.

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Why Am I Fighting for the Gold Standard?

2018-08-31

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2018-08-31

Monetary Metals
Life is good. They could not have imagined what we have now, back in the dark ages. So I have never understood why people prep for a return to the dark ages. The only thing I can think of is that they don’t really picture what life is like. 14 hours a day of back-breaking labor to eke out a subsistence living. Subject to the risks of rain, sun, and insects.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Falling

2018-08-30

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2018-08-30

In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly by 1.4 points to a new reading of 100.3. It thus now pints to a level that is only marginally above its long-term average. Accordingly, in the near future Swiss growth should hover around its average over the last ten years.

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FX Daily, August 30: Brexit Optimism Underpins Sterling

2018-08-30

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2018-08-30

The US dollar is mostly firmer, while global equities are softer and bonds little changed.  The Turkish lira and South African rand remain under pressures.  However, there does not appear to be an overall theme in today's markets.   Disappointing data from Australia and New Zealand has seen the Antipodean currencies move lower.  New Zealand's business confidence fell to a ten-year low, and this sent the Kiwi tumbling.  Its nearly 0.9% fall...

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A Fake Brexit and the “Noble Dream” – Claudio Grass Speaks With Godfrey Bloom

2018-08-30

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2018-08-30

Introductory Remarks: The “Anti-Politician” Godfrey Bloom, by PT Most of our readers will probably remember former UKIP chief whip and European Parliament representative Godfrey Bloom. As far as we know, he is the only politician who ever raised the issue of the workings of the fractionally reserved central bank-directed monetary system in the EU parliament. This system is of course central to the phenomenon of the recurring boom-bust sequences...

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COMCO declines to investigate watchmakers over cartel claims

2018-08-30

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2018-08-30

The Swiss Competition Commission (COMCO) has decided not to open a formal investigation into watchmakers including Swatch, LVMH and Richemont over the supply of spare parts for independent watch repair shops.

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Swiss Job Numbers Up but too Few Qualified Workers

2018-08-29

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2018-08-29

Job-numbers-Switzerland
In the second quarter of 2018, the number of jobs in Switzerland rose to 5.048 million, a 2.1% increase on the second quarter of 2017. Regions rising the most were Lake Geneva (+3.0%), north west Switzerland (+3.0%), central Switzerland (+2.4%) and Zurich (+2.1%). Rises in job numbers in eastern Switzerland (+1.6%), Mittelland (+1.3%) and Ticino (0%) were lower.

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FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Finds Support, but Downside Correction May Not be Over

2018-08-29

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2018-08-29

The US dollar has steadied after pulling back in recent days, but the downside correction does not appear complete, and month-end flows are still a risk to picking a dollar-bottom. The Australian dollar is the weakest of the majors. The main drag is paradoxically Westpac, one of Australia's largest banks, raised the variable rate mortgage by 14 bp to 5.38%. Others are expected to follow.

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Here’s How We Ended Up with Predatory, Parasitic Elites

2018-08-29

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2018-08-29

Income Inequality, 1913 - 2012
Combine financialization, neoliberalism and moral bankruptcy, and you end up with predatory, parasitic elites. How did our financial and political elites become predatory parasites? Some will answer that elites have always been predatory parasites; as tempting as it may be to offer a blanket denunciation of elites, this overlooks the eras in which elites rose to meet existential crises. Following in Ancient Rome's Footsteps: Moral Decay,...

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Anticipating How Welcome This Second Deluge Will Be

2018-08-29

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2018-08-29

US Treasuries, Jan 2018 - Aug 2018
Effective federal funds (EFF) was 1.92% again yesterday. That’s now eight in a row just 3 bps underneath the “technically adjusted” IOER. If indeed the FOMC has to make another one to this tortured tool we know already who will be blamed for it.

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Günstig Land kaufen – Wie du profitabel kleine Grundstücke kaufst – mit Jack Bosch

2018-08-28

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Land kaufen - Dein kostenloses Immopreneur Starterpaket für Immobilieninvesotren: http://bit.ly/immobilienstarter Im heutigen Interview habe ich Jack Bosch zu Gast. Wir sprechen darüber, wie du es schaffst mit einfach Methoden Land zu kaufen und so hohe Profite mitzunehmen. Jack ist Experte für Land flipping und hat sich in den letzten Jahren ein starkes Immobilienportfolio in den USA aufgebaut. Zusätzlich ist er als Coach tätig und hilft...

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Employment Barometer in the Q2 2018: Sharp Rise in Employment in Switzerland

2018-08-28

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2018-08-28

Switzerland Employment Level, Q2 2018
In the 2nd quarter 2018, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 2.1% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.4% with previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 2.0%. The Swiss economy counted 14 000 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+22.6%) and the employment outlook indicator is also indicating an upward trend (+1.1%). These are some of the findings from...

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FX Daily, August 28: Greenback Remains On Defensive

2018-08-28

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2018-08-28

Corrective forces continue to weigh on the US dollar. Sometimes the narratives drive the price action and sometimes the price action drives the narratives. Currently the latter appears to hold sway. The dollar's downside correction began around the middle of the month, well before Powell's August 24 Jackson Hole speech.

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Government Reinforces Critical Infrastructure against Cyber Attacks

2018-08-28

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2018-08-28

In the wake of several major cyber security attacks, the government has released minimum standards for companies and organisations to help protect the country’s critical energy, food, and water infrastructure. Some critics question whether a minimum standard goes far enough as basic services become increasingly dependent on digital technology.

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