Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, July 18: Dollar on Back Foot as Equities Slide

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

Overview:  Profit-taking continues to weigh on global equities earnings concerns saw the biggest drop in the S&P 500 in three weeks.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session.  The Nikkei gapped lower for the second straight session and has now retraced half of the gains scored since early June.  The Shanghai Composite is at its lowest level in a month.

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Pound to Swiss Franc forecast: Will GBP/CHF rates fall below 1.20?

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

The pound to Swiss Franc exchange rate has been on steady decline since May when it peaked at 1.3397. Since then, it has fallen to 1.2245 as Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on sterling, with the market feeling the prospect of a no-deal Brexit has increased. The franc has also risen in value owing to its status as a safe haven currency, and the continued fears over the global economy.

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Swiss Trade Balance Q2 2019: the positive trend continues to export

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

Switzerland Trade Balance, June 2019
In the second quarter of 2019, exports increased by 1.4% and imports by 0.2%. The two traffic departments have thus set a record quarterly result. The trade surplus, on the other hand, stood at 6.8 billion francs.

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UBS warns of a looming shortage of workers in Switzerland

2019-07-18

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2019-07-18

The Swiss bank UBS estimates there could be a shortfall of 500,000 workers in Switzerland in the coming 10 years as the baby boomer generation retires. However, the bank predicts the shortfall will not be even across all industries. Some sectors are expected to stagnate. Workers in these industries might find it harder to find work.

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FX Daily, July 17: Back to the Well Again

2019-07-17

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2019-07-17

Overview:  After slapping punitive tariffs on structural from China and Mexico last week, US President Trump threatened to end the tariff truce with China because it is not stepped up its purchases of US agriculture products.  Trump said the tariff freeze was in exchange for ag purchases, but at the time it seemed as if granting licenses to US companies to sell to Huawei was the quid pro quo.

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China: Q2 growth lowest in decades

2019-07-17

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2019-07-17

Growth in Real Chinese GDP by Sector, 2010-2019
Downward pressure on growth persists amid ongoing trade tensions.Chinese real GDP growth came in at 6.2% year-over-year (y-o-y) in Q2, down from 6.4% in Q1, and the lowest quarterly growth in over two decades.The tertiary sector (mainly services) continued to lead growth, expanding by 7.0% y-o-y in Q2, the same as in Q1.

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Survey: one in ten Swiss jobs is ‘low paid’

2019-07-17

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2019-07-17

Around 320,000 jobs in Switzerland are considered low paid, earning a gross monthly salary of under CHF4,335 ($4,400), according to the most recent nationwide statistics. In 2016, 12% of Swiss workers earned such a low monthly salary, the Federal Statistical Office (OFS) reported on Monday.

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Swiss fuel-related CO2 emissions remained stable in 2019

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

Despite an increase in the use of biofuels and electric vehicles, fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions remained unchanged in 2018 in the country. The stagnation was due to the increase in road traffic. Owing to a rise in the average number of kilometres Swiss residents travelled last year, as well as growth in higher-emissions passenger vehicles – mainly four-wheel drives – fuel-related CO2 emissions in 2017 were still 3.3% above their 1990 level,...

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FX Daily, July 16: Sterling Weakness Punctures Subdued Session

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

Overview: Summer in the northern hemisphere contributing to the subdued activity in the global capital markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific index stalled after a four-day advance, with Japanese, Chinese, and Australian equities offsetting gains in Taiwan, South Korea, and India.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is flattish, struggling to extend its three-day rally.

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Is the Fed too focused on corporates?

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

US Consumers' Debt Servicing Burden Has Climbed Sharply,1989-2019
Fed dovishness is helping to curb financing costs for corporates but does not seem to be percolating down to the US consumer, whose debt-servicing costs are rising. This could be something to watch. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s leading priority now is to help sustain the US business cycle, hence the concept of ‘insurance’ rate cuts put forward by Fed chairman Jerome Powell, with some echoes of Alan Greenspan’s philosophy in the 1990s.

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How to Fix GDP, Report 14 Jul

2019-07-16

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2019-07-16

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, we looked at the idea of a national balance sheet, as a better way to measure the economy than GDP (which is production + destruction). The national balance sheet would take into account both assets and liabilities. If we take on another $1,000,000 debt to buy a $1,000,000 asset, then we have not added any equity.

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FX Daily, July 15: Marking Time on Monday

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

Overview: The new record highs in US equities ahead of the weekend coupled with Chinese data that suggested the economy was gaining some traction as Q2 wound down is helping underpin risk appetites to start the week. Japanese markets were closed today, but equities were mostly firmer in the Asia Pacific regions, markets in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India firmed. 

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2019: -1.4 percent YoY, -0,5 percent MoM

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in June 2019 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products, petroleum and natural gas as well as basic metals and semi-finished metal products. Compared with June 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 1.4%.

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FX Weekly Preview: What to Watch if Fed and ECB are Committed to Easing

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

There is little doubt after the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony last week and the FOMC minutes that a rate cut will be delivered at the end of the month. Similarly, after comments by several ECB officials and the record of their recent meetin.g confirms it too is prepared to adjust policy. The timing of the ECB's move is more debatable, an adjustment at the July 25 meeting appears to have increased.

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Old Swiss trains get chance at new life online

2019-07-15

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2019-07-15

The Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) is selling its old locomotives on the Internet. Control cars, rails, switches and a firefighting train with a CHF1 million ($1 million) price tag are among the vintage vehicles on sale. You will be hard pressed to find anything for less than CHF25,000 on SBBresale.ch, according to the Sunday editions of the German-language Blick newspaper and French-language Le Matin.

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Competition watchdog fines car leasing companies for collusion

2019-07-14

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2019-07-14

The Swiss competition commission (COMCO) has fined eight car leasing firms a total of CHF30 million ($30.4 million) for having swapped information on rates. The fines were announced on Thursday and come after some years of regular and systematic information exchanges between the companies on interest rates, COMCO announced.

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Number below poverty line rises in Switzerland

2019-07-14

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2019-07-14

In Switzerland, the revenue poverty line is income of CHF 27,108 (US$ 27,490) a year for someone living alone and CHF 47,880 (US$ 48,550) for a family of four. In 2017, the percentage of Switzerland’s population living below the poverty line was 8.2% or 675,000 people. In 2016, the percentage was 7.6%.

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As Chinese Factory Deflation Sets In, A ‘Dovish’ Powell Leans on ‘Uncertainty’

2019-07-14

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2019-07-14

China Price Stability, 2007-2019
It’s a clever bit of misdirection. In one of the last interviews he gave before passing away, Milton Friedman talked about the true strength of central banks. It wasn’t money and monetary policy, instead he admitted that what they’re really good at is PR. Maybe that’s why you really can’t tell the difference Greenspan to Bernanke to Yellen to Powell no matter what happens.

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Half a million Swiss jobs vacancies predicted in 10 years

2019-07-13

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2019-07-13

Retiring baby-boomers and a shifting job market could mean a shortfall of up to 500,000 workers in Switzerland over the next decade, UBS forecasts. The bank proposes plugging the hole not only by immigration, but also by boosting more old and female workers. Basing its projections on long-term employment statistics, the bank says that the number of jobs to be filled could be anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 over the next decade.

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Powell’s Congressional testimony sets the scene for rate cut

2019-07-13

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2019-07-13

Median Fed estimate for neutral rate, Fed rate
The Fed will likely cut rates by 25 basis points on 31 July, with a similar cut possible as early as September.During his testimony before the House of Representatives on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell repeated the dovish signals he gave at the Fed press conference in June, hinting at a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on 31 July.

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