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Tag Archive: newsletter

Swiss investments in Turkey drop by half

2018-10-05

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2018-10-05

The severe policies of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have led to Swiss companies decreasing their investments in Turkey by 50% compared to the average over the past decade, Swiss Public Television SRF reports. Over the last ten years, Swiss companies have on average invested some CHF200 million ($202 million) in Turkish markets, but today the figures amount to roughly half that.

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A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

2018-10-05

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2018-10-05

Benchmark 10-year UST 2017-2018
On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. After April 2, the BOND ROUT!!!! was re-energized and away went interest rates.

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FX Daily, October 04: Dollar Consolidates Gains while Yields Continue to Rise

2018-10-04

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2018-10-04

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's gains against most of the major currencies, though the dollar bloc is underperforming. Bond yields are moving higher, and equities are lower. With a light data and events stream, the price action itself is the news.

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Study finds Swiss economy is looking up, but risks abound

2018-10-04

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2018-10-04

Switzerland's GDP is on track this year to increase by 2.9%, according to a forecast by Zurich's KOF Swiss Economic Institutepublished Wednesday. This positive outlook is tempered by concerns over the potentially negative impact of global trade wars and a no-deal Brexit on the neutral nation.

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Chinese PMI data points to further growth moderation

2018-10-04

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2018-10-04

Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs
More policy support is expected, and may lead to slight rebound in Q4.China’s manufacturing PMIs softened further in September, indicating that growth momentum is likely continued to moderate in Q3 and that the weakness may extend into Q4.In response to the weakening growth momentum, especially in the context of escalating trade tensions with the US, the Chinese government has turned to policy easing since June.

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Pensions Now Depend on Bubbles Never Popping (But All Bubbles Pop)

2018-10-04

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2018-10-04

Calpers pensions
We're living in a fantasy, folks. Bubbles pop, period. The nice thing about the "wealth" generated by bubbles is it's so easy: no need to earn wealth the hard way, by scrimping and saving capital and investing it wisely. Just sit back and let central bank stimulus push assets higher.

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Textbook Falling Interest Behavior

2018-10-04

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2018-10-04

This is a textbook case. Well, it would be if there was a textbook that presented the dynamics of the rising and falling interest rate cycles. Costco is spending over a quarter billion dollars, to make a capital investment in chicken processing. This is not the typical entrepreneurial investment, which seeks to increase margins by serving an unserved or underserved demand.

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Yield Curve Compression – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-10-03

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2018-10-03

Gold and Silver Price
The price of gold fell nine bucks last week. However, the price of silver shot up 33 cents. Our central planners of credit (i.e., the Fed) raised short-term interest rates, and threatened to do it again in December. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to act as if investors do not understand the concepts of marginal debtor, zombie corporation, and net present value.

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Strong Swiss agricultural output recorded despite droughts

2018-10-03

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2018-10-03

Swiss agricultural production is up in 2018, driven largely by bigger hauls of wine, fruit and milk, according to the latest official statistics. Productivity is also on the rise. The yearly production estimate of CHF10.6 billion ($10.7 billion) released on Tuesday by the Federal Statistical Office represents an increase of 2.7% on 2017 figures.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Clip from Discussion on Emerging Markets

2018-10-03

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2018-10-03

In my first television appearance since joining Bannockburn Global Forex, I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on the Bloomberg set. In this nearly 2.5 min clip, we talk about the Indonesia rupiah and the dollar's move above the IDR15000 level for the first time since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.

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China’s Industrial Dollar

2018-10-03

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2018-10-03

China Industry Revenue, Aug 2008 - 2018
In December 2006, just weeks before the outbreak of “unforeseen” crisis, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke discussed the breathtaking advance of China’s economy. He was in Beijing for a monetary conference, and the unofficial theme of his speech, as I read it, was “you can do better.” While economic gains were substantial, he said, they were uneven.

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FX Daily, October 02: Greenback Advances

2018-10-02

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2018-10-02

The US dollar is rising against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are the exceptions and are holding their own. Global equities are mixed. Asia, excluding Japan, was mostly lower, with 1.2% losses in Taiwan and South Korea and 2.5% drop in Hong Kong and in the H-shares that trade there.

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A Word About the Q2 COFER Report

2018-10-02

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2018-10-02

US Dollars in Billions, Q2 2017 - Q2 2018
The IMF reports the most authoritative currency allocation of global reserves at the end of every quarter with a quarter delay. Invariably, an economist, strategist, or journalist is inspired to write why some data nugget confirms the demise of the dollar as the dominant currency.

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Italy tests the EU’s tolerance

2018-10-02

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2018-10-02

Italian public debt dynamics under three different deficit dynamics
The populist government’s plans to increase the deficit could set it on a collision course with Brussels. We remain bearish Italian bonds and euro peripheral bonds in general.Leaders of Italy’s coalition government and the finance minister yesterday agreed on a 2.4% GDP deficit target. The new target is higher than our expectation of a deficit “above but close to 2.0%” in 2019.

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Tax amnesty ends for undeclared EU assets

2018-10-02

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2018-10-02

The automatic exchange of information between Switzerland and the European Union came into effect on Monday. Owning property abroad without declaring it will no longer be possible. The deadline of September 30 ended the possibility of coming forward voluntarily, reported Swiss public television, RTS, on Sunday. For latecomers who have assets outside Switzerland and who failed to declare them, doing so now can no longer be considered voluntary.

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Fixing Infrastructure Isn’t as Simple as Spending Another Trillion Dollars

2018-10-02

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2018-10-02

Public Infrastructure Has Been Neglected
It isn't easy to add new subway lines or new highways, and so "solutions" don't really exist. If there's one thing Americans can still agree on, it's that America needs to spend more on infrastructure which is visibly falling apart in many places. This capital investment creates jobs and satisfies everyone's ideological requirements: investment in public infrastructure helps enterprises, local governments and residents.

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LBMA Clearing and Vaulting data reveal the absurdity of the London ‘Gold’ Market

2018-10-02

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2018-10-02

LBMA gold vaulting data report for end of June 2018: Published 1st October
The first day of each month sees the reporting of a number of statistics about the London Gold Market by the bullion bank led London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). These statistics focus on clearing data and vault holdings data and are reported in a 1 month lag basis for clearing activity and a 3 month lag basis for vault holdings data.

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Swiss Retail Sales, August 2018: +1.1 percent Nominal and +0.4 percent Real

2018-10-01

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2018-10-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, Aug 2018
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.1% in nominal terms in August 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.3% compared with the previous month.

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Permanent Gold Backwardation, Report 30 Sep 2018

2018-10-01

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2018-10-01

CHF Gold Basis, 2018-2019
Sometimes, one just needs to look in the right place. And often in those cases, it just takes a conversation to alert one where to look. We had a call with a Swiss company this week, to discuss gold financing for their business. They reminded us that there is a negative interest rate on Swiss francs. And then they said that a swap of francs for gold has a cost. That is, the CHF GOFO rate is negative (the dollar based 12-month MM GOFO™ is +2.4%).

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FX Daily, October 01: NAFTA Deal Struck, Softer EMU Mfg PMI, and Firm Greenback Starts Week

2018-10-01

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2018-10-01

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso are extending its pre-weekend gains on news that a new NAFTA deal (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement USMCA) has been struck. Against most of the other major and emerging market currencies, the US dollar is firm. China's mainland and Hong Kong markets are closed for a national holiday.

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