Tag Archive: newsletter

Cool Video: CNBC Squawk Box

2018-11-22

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2018-11-22

I was part of the "Trading Block" on CNBC earlier today. The sharp fall in stocks and oil would have led many, like Joe, to anticipate dollar weakness. Instead, the dollar rallied. Perhaps, I suggested, the dollar was acting like a safe haven. Bill yields are high enough to make cash a reasonable alternative to park one's savings.

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Skills Shortage on the Rise in Key Professions

2018-11-22

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2018-11-22

Switzerland’s talent shortage is more pronounced in 2018, a new survey has found. Technical, financial, and medical professions are most affected, while job seekers in the hospitality, retail, and administrative sectors face the greatest competition.

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Pound to Swiss Franc: CHF Strengthens Due to Events around the Globe

2018-11-21

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2018-11-21

Brexit continues to put pressure on sterling and we are still waiting to find out if a vote of no confidence is called. The Prime Minister is in Brussels today meeting with Jean Claude Juncker. if the media get wind of any developments this could influence the Pound to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) rate, but in general the Pound remains under pressure which is helping the Franc to strengthen.

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FX Daily, November 21: A Semblance of Stability Returns

2018-11-21

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2018-11-21

Yesterday's frenzy has burnt itself out for the moment. Equities began recovering in Asia after early losses. China, including Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand closed higher and European markets are recouping some of yesterday's decline. The Dow Jones Stoxx is trying to snap a five-day decline and is up a little more than 0.5% near midday.

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Taxes and insurance eat up almost 30percent of Swiss household income

2018-11-21

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2018-11-21

Swiss households spend an average of 29% on mandatory payments like taxes, social contributions and health insurance. Figures released by the Swiss Statistical Office on Monday reveal that, based on 2016 data, a Swiss household had an average income of CHF7,124 ($7,140), of which CHF2,910 was eaten up by unavoidable expenses.

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Does the Market Need a Heimlich Maneuver?

2018-11-21

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2018-11-21

Effective Federal Funds Rate 2010-2018
For all we know, the panic selling is Wall Street's way of forcing the Fed's hand: stop with the rates increases already or Mr. Market expires. Markets everywhere are gagging on something: they're sagging, crashing, imploding, blowing up, dropping and generally exhibiting signs of distress.

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Swiss Trade Balance October 2018: Record exports in October 2018

2018-11-20

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2018-11-20

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), October 2018
In October 2018, seasonally adjusted exports grew 6.0%, after their slightly negative evolution since June. They thus reach a level monthly record. Conversely, the decline in imports continued (-1.8%). The balance commercial loop with a surplus of 2.6 billion francs.

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FX Daily, November 20: Equity Slide Continues

2018-11-20

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2018-11-20

Yesterday's 3% drop in the NASDAQ is setting the tone for today. The US stock market advance had been led by a narrow group of equities, and those have come under strong pressure amid slower consumer demand and stricter export control. Asian equities were a sea of red today. Chinese markets led the sell-off with more than a 2% drop. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is for a fifth session. 

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Cheat Sheet

2018-11-20

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2018-11-20

biking
The market always has taken the Fed's forecast for three rate hikes next year with a large dose of skepticism. The fed funds futures strip implies growing expectations that the Fed pauses after a hike in December and Q1 19. It is still unclear the direction of fiscal policy next year. It may be difficult for the Democrats to oppose making middle-class tax cuts permanent and an infrastructure initiative cannot be ruled out.

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The Intolerable Scourge of Fake Capitalism

2018-11-20

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2018-11-20

Indexes, Nov 2017 - 2018
All is now bustle and hubbub in the late months of the year. This goes for the stock market too. If you recall, on September 22nd the S&P 500 hit an all-time high of 2,940. This was nearly 100 points above the prior high of 2,847, which was notched on January 26th. For a brief moment, it appeared the stock market had resumed its near decade long upward trend.

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Eurodollar Futures: Powell May Figure It Out Sooner, He Won’t Have Any Other Choice

2018-11-20

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2018-11-20

Eurodollar Futures Curve, May - Sep 2018
For Janet Yellen, during her somewhat brief single term she never made the same kind of effort as Ben Bernanke had. Her immediate predecessor, Bernanke, wanted to make the Federal Reserve into what he saw as the 21st century central bank icon. Monetary policy wouldn’t operate on the basis of secrecy and ambiguity. Transparency became far more than a buzzword.

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Bankers are no longer Switzerland’s top earners

2018-11-20

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2018-11-20

The pharmaceutical industry and insurance companies have overtaken banking as the best paid sectors in Switzerland, according to the NZZ am Sonntag. In 2016, bank executives took home an average gross salary of CHF220,000 ($220,394) per year, which is CHF 40,000 less than ten years ago.

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The Interesting Seasonal Trends of Precious Metals

2018-11-20

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2018-11-20

Prices in financial and commodity markets exhibit seasonal trends. We have for example shown you how stocks of pharmaceutical companies tend to rise in winter due to higher demand, or the end-of-year rally phenomenon (last issue), which can be observed almost every year. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium are subject to seasonal trends as well.

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The Ultimate Stablecoin, Report 18 Nov 2018

2018-11-19

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2018-11-19

Gold and Silver Price
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away we wrote a series of articles arguing that bitcoin is not money and is not sound. Bitcoin was skyrocketing at the time, as we wrote most of them between July 30 and Oct 1 last year. Back in those halcyon days, volatility was deemed to be a feature.

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FX Daily, November 19: Does Monday’s Calm mean a Storm is Around the Corner?

2018-11-19

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2018-11-19

Overview: There is an uneasy calm in the global capital markets. Investors are digesting the weekend news, which includes the failure of APEC to issue a joint statement due to US-China tensions that we highlighted by dueling speeches by China President Xi and US Vice President Pence.

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FX Weekly Preview: Unfinished Business

2018-11-19

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2018-11-19

Often, and apparently wrongly attributed to Mark Twain is the observation that it is not what we know that gets into trouble, but "what we know that just ain't so." Now though, investors suffer from a different problem. Several processes are in motion, and there is little confidence in their outcomes. Among these are Brexit, US-China trade, the trajectory of Fed policy, and the EC's efforts to enforce the agreed-upon budget rules.

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Swiss civil servants incur CHF121 million in expenses

2018-11-19

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2018-11-19

The expenses of Swiss civil servants added up to CHF 121.7 million ($122 million) last year, according to the SonntagsBlick newspaper. Counting the 34,800 full-time positions in the federal administration in 2016, that level of spending amounts to almost CHF3,500 per civil servant.

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China hard data for October reveals mixed picture

2018-11-18

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2018-11-18

China Retail Sales in Nominal and Real terms
Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt.Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong performance.

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Minimum return on Swiss pensions unchanged

2018-11-18

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2018-11-18

A government commission looking at the rate, called for a reduction to 0.75%, while unions demanded a rise to 1.25%. In the end the Federal Council decided to take the middle road and leave the rate at 1% for 2019. The rate is the minimum pension funds must apply to employment related 2nd pillar pension assets in 2019.

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After May’s divorce deal: the road ahead for Brexit

2018-11-17

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2018-11-17

GBP/USD drops after Theresa May's cabinet approves the Eu divorce deal
But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months.Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give the EU too much influence on UK...

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