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Tag Archive: newsletter

Good Riddance to a “Nothing-Burger” Trade Deal

2019-05-06

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2019-05-06

U.S.Dollar's Share of Global Peyments
China has expanded its domestic debt to fund its growth, much of which qualifies as malinvestment, creating financial vulnerabilities its government is anxious to mask. As I noted in Trade Deal Follies: The U.S. Has Embraced the World's Worst Negotiating Tactics (April 8, 2019), the trade deal was a Nothing-Burger for the U.S. Without any consequences for violating trade deals, China violates all trade deals, starting with the WTO.

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Geneva blocks the erection of 5G mobile antennas

2019-05-05

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2019-05-05

Last week, Antonio Hodgers, the head of Geneva’s executive, announced a ban on the erection of further 5G mobile antennas in the canton, according to an interview on RTS. Motivated by uncertainty on the potential health effects of the new technology, the temporary freeze is the most the cantonal government can do to stop the rollout of the technology.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in April 2019: +0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2019-05-04

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2019-05-04

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, April 2019
03.05.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in April 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.4 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Income Inequality and the Decline of the Middle Class in Two Charts

2019-05-04

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2019-05-04

CBO Income Before, 1980 - 2019
These two charts of average incomes of U.S. households by quintile (bottom 20%, middle 60% (20%+20%+20%) and top 20%) have both good news and bad news. (Charts are from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office -- CBO).

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UBS Tells Managers They Can Hire 1 Employee For Every 5 Who Leave

2019-05-04

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2019-05-04

Like the other lagging European investment banks (Deutsche and SocGen immediately spring to mind), UBS is resorting to the last resort of the embattled megabank CEO when shareholders are demanding higher profits 'or else'. After a decade where UBS cut thousands of jobs in its investment bank unit, Sergio Ermotti is turning to one of the few business lines where fat can feasibly be cut: UBS's once legendary asset-management business.

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Monetary Metals Leases Silver to Money Metals Exchange

2019-05-03

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2019-05-03

Silver Offers for Money Metals Exchange
Monetary Metals® announces that it has leased silver to Money Metals Exchange® to support the growth of its business of selling gold and silver at retail and wholesale. Investors earn 2.2% on their silver, which is held in Money Metals’ vault in the form of silver products.

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FX Daily, May 03: Ahead of US Jobs Report, the Greenback Remains Firm

2019-05-03

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2019-05-03

Overview: The US April jobs data stand before the weekend, and the greenback is holding on to most of yesterday's gains as participants wait for the report. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mixed without leadership from China and Japan, where the markets remain closed for the extended holiday. On the week, Australia's ASX was the worst performing.

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Is Europe turning Japanese?

2019-05-03

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2019-05-03

German Bunds Yield, curve
European investment opportunities remain, despite financial repression in the region.The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised market watchers with its dovish turn in January, wiping out any prospect of an interest-rate rise this year and revising its growth projections for the euro area downward for 2019.

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The Accelerating Decay of the Middle Class

2019-05-03

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2019-05-03

The Fruit of Financialization
Ironically, their ample compensation allows them to avoid the poor-quality services they've designed for everyone below them. If we define middle class by the security of household income and what that income can buy rather than by an income level, what do we conclude? 

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IT managers sentenced in ministry corruption case

2019-05-03

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2019-05-03

Four suspects have been sentenced in a major corruption case involving a unit of the Swiss economics ministry. But the main defendant is still awaiting a formal indictment. The Office of the Attorney General (OAG) announced on Wednesday that a trustee was given a suspended six-month prison sentence and three external IT managers were ordered to pay fines for offering material contributions and gifts of up to CHF100,000 ($100,000) to a senior...

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FX Daily, May 02: Dollar Consolidates Fed-Inspired Recovery

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Overview:  The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's post-Fed rally, and this is giving it a slightly heavier tone today.   Equities are mostly lower and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.5% in late morning turnover, which if sustained would be the largest decline in three weeks.  The S&P 500 posted a potential key reversal yesterday by setting new record highs and then closing below the previous session's low.

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Claudia Aebersold Szalay to become Head of Media Relations at the SNB

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Claudia Aebersold Szalay will assume the role of Head of Media Relations at the Swiss National Bank on 1 June, replacing Walter Meier who will be leaving the bank having reached retirement age. Ms Aebersold Szalay was previously an economics and business editor at the NZZ newspaper for eleven years.

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Swiss Retail Sales, March 2019: -0.5 percent Nominal and -0.7 percent Real

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, March 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.5% in nominal terms in March 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Lawyer says that Volkswagen case stalling in Switzerland 

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

The lawyer representing about 500 people in Switzerland who have filed a complaint against German carmaker Volkswagen and importer AMAG says the Swiss attorney general is dragging his feet in the so-called ‘Dieselgate’ case. Geneva lawyer Jacques Roulet formally wrote a letter to the Swiss justice minister, Karin Keller-Sutter, complaining about the alleged delays “in a case of national importance,” according to news agency Keystone-SDA.

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The Spreads Blow Out, Update 1 May

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

Spot Price Bid-Offer Spread, 2017-2019
The bid-ask spread of both (spot) gold and silver has blown out. Both, on March 1. In gold, the spread had been humming along around 13 cents—gold is the most marketable commodity, and this is the proof, a bid-ask spread around 1bps—until… *BAM!* It explodes to around 35 cents, or two and half times as wide.

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What Tokyo Eurodollar Redistribution Really Means For ‘Green Shoots’

2019-05-02

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2019-05-02

TIC - US Banking Data
Last April, monetary officials in Japan were publicly contemplating ending asset purchases under QQE. This April, they are more quietly wondering what other financial assets they might have to buy just to keep it all going a little longer. I’d suggest something like the clouds passing over the islands or the ocean water surrounding them. Nobody would notice either way and it would be equally as effective.

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FX Daily, May 01: No Help on May Day, which is also Fed Day

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

The May Day holiday has shut most markets in Asia and Europe, making for subdued market action. Equity markets that are open, like Australia and the UK, advanced and US shares are trading higher helped by Apple's upbeat forecasts and sales that beat expectations.

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Peripheral bonds after the Spanish election

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

Spanish and Italian Government Budget Balances, 2006-2019
We remain underweight peripheral euro area bonds in general due to continued political uncertainty, which will feed volatility.On April 28, Spain held its third general election in less than four years. As was expected, the centre-left Socialists (PSOE) emerged the largest party, but it does not have an absolute majority, so negotiations with other parties will be needed.

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Swiss president strengthens economic ties with China

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

Swiss President Ueli Maurer has been received by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, for a state visit at the end of a week-long visit to China. The talks on Monday focused on strengthening relations, notably on economic and finance matters, according to a government statement.

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The Erosion of Everyday Life

2019-05-01

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2019-05-01

Wages aren't keeping up
Working hard and doing what you're told is no longer yielding the promised American Dream of security, agency and liberty. Volume One of Fernand Braudel's oft-recommended (by me) trilogy Civilization & Capitalism, 15th to 18th Century is titled The Structures of Everyday Life. The book describes how life slowly became better and freer as the roots of modern capitalism and liberty spread in western Europe, slowly destabilizing and obsoleting the...

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