Tag Archive: franc

Non-Farm Payrolls: Today’s preview

2012-07-06

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2012-07-06

Bloomberg Estimate
A detailed comparison of Non-Farm Payroll estimators from six different sources, like Bloomberg, ISM, Department of Labor and ADP.

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Switzerland in MoM deflation due to cheaper energy and clothes

2012-07-06

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2012-07-06

May CPI Switzerland
Slowing energy prices (MoM -4.2%) and seasonal effects for clothes and footwear (MoM -2.8%) drove Switzerland in a slight deflation on monthly basis again.

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

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2012-07-04

On the way to a recession
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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Spread Swiss Eidgenossen vs. German Bund to see further gains

2012-06-29

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2012-06-29

Germany Swiss Spread
The spread between the Swiss government Eidgenossen bond against the Germany 10yrs. Bund will see further gain in the future, after the Euro summit opened the door for ESM direct financing of banks.   Differences between EFSF and ESM explained

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Merkel: ‘No Eurobonds as Long as I Live’, Hollande: ‘Eurobonds will take up to 10 years’

2012-06-27

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2012-06-27

Eurobonds
  German chancellor Angela Merkel today confirmed the content of our article that Eurobonds are pure utopia. She vows  "No Eurobonds as Long as I Live".

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The win of the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the SNB

2012-06-25

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2012-06-25

Jordan
  The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided.  Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.

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Eurobonds, fiscal union or banking union are all pure utopia

Eurobonds dare pure utopia SNBCHF.COM
Eurobonds are light years away.Germany wants the following order: 1) Euro Plus Pact 2) Fiscal Compact 3) ESM 4) Political union 5) Fiscal union 6) Eurobonds

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The other risk for the SNB: Will German Bund yields double ?

2012-06-20

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2012-06-20

10 yrs. Bunds
In the latest post we started discussing the implications of a German euro exit for the Swiss National Bank, this time we will look on another risk: The rising German Bund yields.

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Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist Saxo Bank is buying in our arguments

2012-06-12

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2012-06-12

Steen2
Steen Jakobsen sees 25% percent chance that the floor breaks and if it does it breaks to parity. Last week Thomas Jordan removed any hopes on a hike of the EUR/CHF and invited smart money and hedge funds to a no-risk, high return game on the Swiss franc, which these gratefully accepted. After Morgan Stanley …

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Other blogs & info on SNB & CHF



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Another week, another 14 bln. francs printed

2012-06-11

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2012-06-11

bal week june 1st
According to the newest monetary data, in the week ending June 8th, the unsterialized money supply (as measured in sight deposits of domestic and foreign banks and deposits by the Swiss confederation) increased by 14 billion Swiss francs.

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The Swiss National Bank and the EUR/CHF floor have become a political football

2012-06-10

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2012-06-10

Adsense inside posts
  How the SNB Chairman Jordan has invited hedge funds and smart investors to a risk-free, high-return guaranteed investment in Swiss francs A wrap-up of Swiss newspapers for non-German literates In parallel to the start of the UEFA Euro 2012, the Swiss National Bank and its policy towards the EUR/CHF exchange rate has become a political …

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

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2012-06-09

Sell in May, Come back in October
  The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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DRAFT: Swiss Economic Data (outdated)

Swiss Eco data July 6


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A central bank running suicide ? SNB prints at pace never seen since EUR/CHF parity in August 2011

2012-06-04

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2012-06-04

Printing PressClick
  The most recent money supply data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has shown increases of huge amounts. As compared with its loss of 19 bln. francs in 2010 (3% percent of the Swiss GDP), the central bank printed tremendous 17.3 bln. in the week ending in June 1st and 13 bln. in the one …

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CNBC rumors: Different peg methods for the SNB

2012-05-30

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2012-05-30

Crawling peg RSD
There are currently rumors going on on CNBC that the SNB is planning something this night. As we explained here, the SNB had to strongly restart the printing press and printed tremendous 13 bln francs in one week. Moreover, they probably sold some of their in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 acquired GBP, JYP and …

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SNB switched from selling euros to buying euros, might sell GBP

2012-05-30

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2012-05-30

GBP EUR
As explained in our previous post, at least till May 4th the Swiss National Bank could have been a net buyer of GBP, USD and JPY selling Euros off their balance sheet. In the week of May 11, QE3 talk came up together with a bad Phily Fed reading. From then the SNB had to acquire … Continue reading »

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Huge rise in Currency Reserves: The SNB has restarted the printing press

2012-05-29

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2012-05-29

Euro Trash Recycled
The game for the Swiss National Bank seems to have changed completely. Again the central bank had increase money supply, as measured by deposits at the SNB by local banks and other sight deposits, this time even by 13219 mil. francs (source). This money printing implies that the SNB had to buy in Euros in …

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SNB’s Jordan admits that EUR/CHF floor will not be raised

2012-05-27

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2012-05-27

SNB Chairman Jordan speaks to media during a news conference in Bern
For the first time the chairman of the Swiss National Bank Jordan has admitted that the EUR/CHF floor of 1.20 will not be raised. In an interview with the Swiss Sonntagszeitung, here also cited by Bloomberg, he said:

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Rumors about tax on Swiss deposits for foreigners and further SNB measures: SNB begging for pips

2012-05-24

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2012-05-24

capital controls
Exactly when the US had a relatively good Markit Flash PMI, rumors are sent out that deposits in CHF for foreigners should be taxed.  To send out this rumor together with good US data seems to be intentional. According to Banque CIC the SNB has declined to comment. We remember the last SNB meeting when similar rumors circulated.

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