Tag Archive: China

FX Weekly Preview: Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields

2017-01-09

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2017-01-09

Rushmore
Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues.

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Gold Rises In All Currencies In 2016 – 9 percent In USD, 13 percent In EUR and 31.5 percent In GBP

2017-01-06

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2017-01-06

Gold Price Performance
Gold gains in USD, GBP, EUR, CAD, AUD, NZD, JPY. Gold gains in CNY, INR & most emerging market currencies. Gold surges 31.5% in British pounds after Brexit shock. Gold acted as hedge and safe haven in 2016 … for those who need safe haven. Furthers signs of market having bottomed and bodes well for 2017. What drivers will gold respond to in 2017? EU elections and contagion risk, Geo-politics, terrorism, war and cyber war. Outlook for gold good...

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Nomi Prins’ Political-Financial Road Map For 2017

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

2017 Just Ahead
As tumultuous as last year was from a global political perspective on the back of a rocky start market-wise, 2017 will be much more so. The central bank subsidization of the financial system (especially in the US and Europe) that began with the Fed invoking zero interest rate policy in 2008, gave way to international distrust of the enabling status quo that unfolded in different ways across the planet.

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Money, Markets, & Mayhem – What To Expect In The Year Ahead

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

Houses
If you thought 2016 was full of market maelstroms and geopolitical gotchas, 2017's 'known unknowns' suggest a year of more mayhem awaits... Here's a selection of key events in the year ahead (and links to Bloomberg's quick-takes on each).

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Chinese Philosopher Kings, Losing their Yuan FX Religion?

2017-01-04

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2017-01-04

Two Stages of Chinese Monetary Policy - Inflationary Deflationary
It took a while, but the world are slowly coming to grips with the simple fact that the red-suzerains in Beijing are not the infallible leaders en route to a new superior economic model as they thought they were. All the craze that emanated from the spurious work of Joshua Cooper Ramo, which eventually led to works like “How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century,” are slowly catching up to reality.

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Gold Market Charts – A Month in Review

2017-01-04

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2017-01-04

Shanghai Gold Exchange - Gold Withdrawals (tonnes), 2008 - end November 2016
BullionStar has recently started a new series of posts highlighting charts relating to some of the most important gold markets, gold exchanges and gold trends around the world. The posts include charts of the Chinese Gold Market, the flow of gold from West to East via the London and Swiss gold markets, and the holdings of gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

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FX Daily, December 30: Dollar Slips into Year End

2016-12-30

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2016-12-30

New Year
In exceptionally thin conditions that characterize the year-end markets, a reportedly computer-generated order lifted the euro from about $1.05 to a little more than $1.0650 in a few minutes early in the Asian sessions.

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FX Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics

2016-12-26

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2016-12-26

Economic Events: United Kingdom, Week December 26
Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices. Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like.

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Rising Trade Tensions

2016-12-17

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2016-12-17

Trade
Obama Administration has taken a hardline against China's trade practices. Other countries are also resisting China's arguments that it is a market economy. Last week, US imposed anti-dumping duties on imported washing machines from China.

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FX Daily, December 14: Markets Quietly Edge into FOMC Meeting

2016-12-14

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2016-12-14

FX Performance, December 14 2016 Movers and Shakers
The Pound is entering mid-December in the same fashion it begun the month after having a very strong November as well. After being buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory and the High Courts ruling that parliamentary approval is needed before invoking Article 50, the Pound has been boosted further after economic data has also impressed, with yesterday being a good example of this.

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Global Warm-Ongering: What Happens If Trump Takes US Out Of Paris Agreement?

2016-12-10

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2016-12-10

Global Emissions
For all the shock, horror, and aghast of global warm-ongers, comes a startling revelation: It’s Irrelevant if US Pulls Out of Paris Accord. Donald Trump has sent his clearest message yet about his plans for reshaping US policy on global warming by choosing a chief environmental regulator who has questioned the science of climate change.

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Gold In London And Hong Kong Is Used To Settle COMEX Futures

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Exhibit 1.
Physical gold located in Hong Kong and London is used to settle COMEX gold futures contracts through “Exchange For Physical” trading in the over-the-counter market. This post is a sequel to Understanding GOFO And The Gold Wholesale Market and COMEX Gold Futures Can Be Settled Directly With Eligible Inventory - in which Exchange For Physical (EFP) trading is explained and how it can increase or decrease open interest at the COMEX.

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Net National Savings Rate, the Best Alternative Indicator to GDP Growth

For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. It is positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. But today GDP growth is often negatively correlated to the Net Savings Rate. Hence GDP is often a less useful measure.

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Q1 – Q3 2016 China Net Gold Import Hits 905 Tonnes

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE Withdrawals September 2016
Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which can be used as a proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand, reached 1,406 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2016. Supply that went through the central bourse consisted of at least 905 tonnes imported gold, roughly 335 tonnes of domestic mine output, and 166 tonnes in scrap supply and other flows recycled through the exchange.

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Global Wealth Update: 0.7 percent Of Adults Control $116.6 Trillion In Wealth

2016-11-23

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2016-11-23

Global Wealth Pyramid
Today Credit Suisse released its latest annual global wealth report, which traditionally lays out what is perhaps the biggest reason for the recent "anti-establishment" revulsion: an unprecedented concentration of wealth among a handful of people, as shown in its infamous global wealth pyramid, an arrangement which as observed by the "shocking" political backlash of the past few months suggests that the lower 'levels' of the pyramid are...

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If TPP is Dead…

2016-11-20

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2016-11-20

Tpp
TPP may be dead, but China is spearheading an alternative regional free trade deal. It is not as ambitious as the US-led TPP. China and Russia are eager to re-establish spheres of influence.

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You’ll Only Understand Trump and Brexit If You Understand the Failure of Globalization

2016-11-18

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2016-11-18

Brexit-Trump
You can only understand the victory of Donald Trump and Brexit once you understand the failure of globalization… Trump made rejection of globalization a centerpiece of his campaign. In his July 21st acceptance speech as the Republican nominee, he said: Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo.

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FX Daily, November 16: The Greenback Remains Resilient

2016-11-16

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2016-11-16

FX Performance, November 16 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar remains bid. It is at its year high against the euro and five-month highs against the Japanese yen. Sterling, which has performed better recently, remains in the trough around 30-year lows. It surge since the election reflects three considerations. The first is December Fed hike. Prior to the election, the market was assessing around a two-thirds chance. Now both the CME and Bloomberg's WIRP estimate the odds above 90%....

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Toward a New World Order?

2016-11-11

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2016-11-11

A Brave New World is coming? Perhaps. We had a recent discussion with a group of people in the hopeless business of doing long term forecasting. This made us think about what the world will look like over the next 20 to 40 years. A pretty thankless task, but the bottom line is without a damn good war, Asia will be the way of the future.

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China Update

2016-11-10

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2016-11-10

China
The evolving political situation in China is worth monitoring. China's trade surplus with the US has fallen this year. It has been roughly 20 years since China was formally labeled a currency manipulator. Trump has indicated he would do so.

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