Tag Archive: China
Heightened Speculation of a BOJ Move Tomorrow did not Stop the Nikkei from Rallying or Yen from Slipping
Overview: The US dollar is trading with a mostly
softer bias against the G10 currencies. The notable exceptions are the Japanese
yen and Swiss franc. Ironically, speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike
appears to have increased, while there is a risk that the Swiss National Bank
cuts rates this week. The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the major
currencies. The central bank meets later this week but is widely expected to
stand pat. The...
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Euro’s Recovery to $1.09 Looks Vulnerable while Yen Falls to New Lows for the Week After Strong Pay Raises Confirmed
At the end of last week, the derivatives market was again pricing in nearly four Fed cuts this year, but this week's data have seen expectations re-converge with the Fed's three rate cuts signaled in December, while cutting the odds of June hike to the lowest in the more than four months.
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Consolidation Featured Ahead of Tomorrow’s US Retail Sales and Friday’s Japanese Wage News
Overview: We came into this week expecting the dollar to rise on the back of a recovery in rates. The two-year note has risen from 4.40% after the jobs report to 4.60%. The dollar's rise has
been less impressive.
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Ueda’s Comments Weigh on Yen as the Market Awaits US CPI
Overview: The US CPI has become one of the most important high-frequency economic reports for the capital markets. The dollar is going into the report narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. Comments by BOJ Governor Ueda about the weakness in consumption of non-durable goods was seen by some as reducing the likelihood of a change in policy next week.
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Japan’s Q4 23 Contraction Revised Away, Helping Keep Yen Bid
Overview: News that the Japanese economy expanded rather than contracted in Q4 23 has fanned expectations that rates could be as early as next week. This is helping keep the yen supported, though it remains in the pre-weekend range, albeit barely.
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Forex Becalmed with the Greenback Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges
(Business trip will interrupt the commentary over the next few days. Check out the March monthly here. Back with the Week Ahead on March 9. May have some comments on X @marcmakingsense.) Overview: Outside of the Australian and New Zealand
dollars, which are off by 0.20%-0.25%, the other G10 currencies are little
changed and mostly softer in narrow ranges. A firm Tokyo CPI, mostly on base
effects and softer rates helped keep the US dollar below...
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Narrowly Mixed Dollar to Start the Big Week for Europe and North America
Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies to begin the week that features a Bank of Canada and ECB meetings, US jobs data, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, and US President Biden's State of the Union address.
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Ueda’s Comments Knock the Yen Back, while the Euro Flirts with $1.08
Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Scandis are enjoying a slightly firmer tone, while the euro and sterling are edging higher in European turnover.
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Euro Bid in Europe but Unlikely to Sustain Gains Through North America
Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week mixed. The
dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen are softer while the European
currencies enjoy a firmer today. Among emerging market currencies, central
European currencies are trading with higher. The Turkish lira is the notable
exception. It is the weakest currency today, off about 0.65%. The Chinese yuan
is a little softer, but the dollar continues to be capped near CNY7.20. Last
week, more often...
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While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America
Overview: Amid a light news stream,
the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside
the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We
note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the
five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the
other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near
JPY150.90. Emerging market...
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Dollar Slips but Dip may Offer New Opportunity
Overview: The US dollar is offered today. It is
trading softer against all the G10 currencies, with the yen the notable
exception, and it is flat. The Antipodean are leading the way, taking out last
week's highs, as has the euro. That said, the intraday momentum indicators are
stretched as NY dealers return from the long holiday weekend. The Scandis are
also trading above last week's highs. The yen, sterling, Canadian dollar, and
Swiss franc are...
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China Returns, the US is on Holiday, and the Dollar Consolidates
Overview: US markets are closed for President's Day,
while China's markets re-opened from the long Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland
stocks advanced, while the yuan slipped slightly. The US dollar is mostly
softer but in narrow ranges. The Antipodeans and yen lead, while the Swiss
franc the only G10 currency that is slightly softer. Most emerging market
currencies are lower, led by about a 0.5% loss of the South African rand. The
Mexican peso's and...
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The Greenback is in Narrow Ranges to Start the Week
Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The
Lunar New Year holiday shut most Asian markets. That, coupled with the light
news in Europe, have served to keep the dollar in narrow ranges against the G10
currencies. The Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and Japanese yen are posting
minor gains against the greenback. The New Zealand dollar, which was strongest
major currency last week (1.4%) is off by almost 0.5% today, making it the
weakest...
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Becalmed FX Market doesn’t Conceal the Greenback’s Strength
Overview: The foreign exchange market is
becalmed today, with most of the major pairs trading in narrow ranges. The
economic calendar is light and the North American session features benchmark
revisions in US CPI and Canada's January employment figures. The US quarterly
refunding supply has been absorbed without much fanfare. The dollar-bloc
currencies and the Norwegian krone are firmer today. A bank forecast that the
central bank will hike rates...
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Yen Tumbles to New Low on BOJ Comments
Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against most
of the G10 currencies as it continues to consolidate its recent gains. The yen is the notable exception, and
it was sold today, not in response to developments in the US Treasury market, a
frequent driver, but in response to comments by a deputy governor of the central bank,
suggesting a rate adjustment would not necessarily signal the start of a
tightening cycle, which some economists expected....
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Sterling Moves Back into Previous Trading Range, but will it Hold?
Overview: The dollar is trading with a
slightly heavier bias as some of its recent gains are pared. Sterling has moved
back into the $1.26-$1.28 trading range that dominated since the middle of last
December until the start of this week. The euro is also trading a little firmer
despite another large drop in German industrial output (-1.6%). The Japanese
yen, Swiss franc, and Norwegian krone are the notable exceptions with a softer profile....
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Greenback Consolidates Two-Day Surge
Overview: The US dollar is consolidating its the
two-day surge since the jobs data at the end of last week. The Reserve Bank of
Australia did not rule out additional rate hikes, and although the derivatives
markets do not think it is likely, the Australian dollar is the best performer
in the G10 today with a small gain. An unexpectedly strong German factory
orders report failed to help the euro much and it languished near yesterday's
low. Sterling...
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The US Dollar and Rates Rise Further
Overview: The US dollar and interest rates have continued to
rise after the strong employment report before the weekend helped drive home the
Fed's message at last week's FOMC meeting. The greenback has been bid to new
highs for the year against the G10 currencies but the Canadian dollar. The
dollar also rose to a marginal new high for the year against the Chinese yuan. Interest
rates are jumping, and the market has downgraded the chances of a May...
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The Euro and Australian Dollar Take Out January Lows to Start the New Month
Overview: Federal Reserve Chair push against
speculation of a March rate cut as explicitly as could be imagined at
yesterday's press conference lifted the dollar, while weighing on stocks. US
regional banks sold off sharply yesterday, and challenges emanating from US
real estate adversely impacted a Japan's Aozora Bank and Deutsche Bank
quadrupled its loss provisions for such exposure. The greenback remains bid. The
euro and Australian dollar have...
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US Tech Sell-Off Challenges Risk Appetites Ahead of the FOMC
Overview: Ahead of the US Treasury's quarterly
refunding announcement and the outcome of the FOMC meeting, the dollar is
trading higher against all the G10 currencies. With US high-flying tech stocks
posting steep losses after disappointing earnings reports, the currencies most
sensitive to risk-appetites, the dollar bloc and the Norwegian krone are the
weakest. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The South African rand,
Philippine peso, and...
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