Tag Archive: $AUD

FX Daily, July 13: Trump Trips Sterling, but Greenback Enjoys Broad Gains

2018-07-13

by

2018-07-13

President Trump weighed in on Brexit and spurred the largest drop in sterling in more than two weeks.  Trump encouraged Brexit, but he indicated he "would have done it much differently" and that he "actually told Theresa May how to do it, but she did not listen."  Trump cautioned that May's plan would mean it would still be too close to the EU and this would "kill" a free-trade deal with the US.  In effect, Trump backed the harder Brexit camp...

Read More »

FX Daily, July 11: Escalating Trade Tensions Set Tone for Capital Markets

2018-07-11

by

2018-07-11

The US took the first step in making good its threat to put a 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods in response to the PRC retaliating for the 25% tariff on $34 bln of its exports. The US provided a list of products that will get the new tariffs after the public comment period is completed at the end of next month. This time the list included numerous consumer goods, like digital cameras, baseball gloves, but have left off popular products, like...

Read More »

FX Daily, July 03: Markets Trying to Stabilize

2018-07-03

by

2018-07-03

The global capital markets are trying to stabilize. US equities recovered from early losses yesterday but this was not enough to stop Asian equities from extending recent losses. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% for the sixth decline in the past seven sessions, However, several local markets, including China, Australia, and Korea advanced.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 27: Renminbi Slide Continues and Oil Extends Surge

2018-06-27

by

2018-06-27

The US dollar is mostly firmer today, though has slipped back below the JPY110 level, as lower yields and equities support the Japanese yen. The main story in the foreign exchange market today is the continued slide in the Chinese renminbi. The decline is the sharpest since the 2015 devaluation.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 26: Trade Tensions and Approaching Quarter-End Cast Pall Over Markets

2018-06-26

by

2018-06-26

The global capital markets have stabilized today after yesterday's rout in equities, softer yields, and US dollar. The implementation of US tariffs on China and China's retaliatory tariffs on the US is still ten days off. The immediate focus is on actions expected to curb the technology transfer.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 21: Dollar Driven Higher

2018-06-21

by

2018-06-21

The half-hearted and shallow attempts by the currencies to recover appear to be emboldening the dollar bulls today,  The greenback is higher against all major and emerging market currencies today.  Demand for dollars is strong enough to offset the broader risk-off environment that is pulling stocks and core yields lower that is usually supportive of the yen. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 20: Fragile Stability

2018-06-20

by

2018-06-20

The day began out with equity losses in Asia before a sharp recovery, perhaps initiated in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up a little more than 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite fell more than 1% before closing 0.25% better.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 19: America First Clashes With Made in China 2025

2018-06-19

by

2018-06-19

The escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies is scaring investors, who are liquidating equities and buying core bonds.  The dollar and yen are the strongest of the major currencies.  The Swiss franc is mostly steady as it too is benefiting from the unwinding of risk trades.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 15: Dollar Slips While Escalating Trade Tensions may Roil Markets

2018-06-15

by

2018-06-15

The Dollar Index edged higher to its best level this year before turning down as market attention shifts from central banks to trade tensions. Reports confirm that the US will go ahead with the 25% tariff on $50 bln of Chinese goods and provide some specificity today. The final list is expected to be similar to the goods that had been identified in the preliminary list, with an emphasis on electronic goods, apparently on ideas that they may have...

Read More »

FX Daily, June 14: Dollar Punished Ahead of ECB

2018-06-14

by

2018-06-14

The US dollar is slumping against all the major currencies in the aftermath of the hawkish Federal Reserve. In fact, the inability of the greenback to hold on to the gains scored in the initial reaction to the Fed's hike, optimism on the economy, and the signal of hikes in September and December, foretold today's push lower.

Read More »

Greenback Corrects Lower

2018-06-08

by

2018-06-08

The consensus narrative is that with rising inflation it is understandable that next week's meeting is live and that the confirmation of such has lifted the euro to ten-day highs, dragging the dollar broadly.  However, to accept this is to accept the debasement of language.  Until now, we dubbed central bank meeting that could result in action as "live."  For example, given that the Fed has not changed interest rates since the hiking cycle began in...

Read More »

FX Daily, June 5: Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails

2018-06-05

by

2018-06-05

The British pound is benefiting from the stronger than expected service and composite PMI readings, which among other things are serving as a distraction from the government's seemingly tortured approach to Brexit and the sales of part of its stake in RBS for a GBP2 bln loss.  Financials are a drag on the FTSE 100 today (~-0.5% while other major bourses are higher).

Read More »

FX Daily, May 31: Don’t Confuse Calmer Markets with Resolution

2018-05-31

by

2018-05-31

The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today's activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. Moreover, the US push on trade is intensifying again.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 25: US Dollar Loses Momentum Ahead of the Weekend

2018-05-25

by

2018-05-25

The euro and sterling were sold through yesterday's lows in Asia, but rebounded in Europe, with the help of mildly constructive data in the form of the German IFO and details of UK Q1 GDP. The IFO climate measure matched the April reading and thereby snapped a five-month slide. The expectations component slipped, but the current assessment improved.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 17: US Rates Edge Higher, while Dollar Turns Mixed

2018-05-17

by

2018-05-17

The Britsh pound was a cent from yesterday's lows on a press report that claimed the UK cabinet had agreed on seeking to stay in the customs union with the EU beyond the two-year transition period. The report suggested that the UK wanted to still negotiate other trade deals, which would seem to be a Trojan Horse.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 15: Firm US Rates Underpin Greenback

2018-05-15

by

2018-05-15

US 10-year rates are again probing the air above 3%, and this is encouraging a push back toward JPY110, with the euro slipping toward $1.19.  Asian equities fell, with the MSCI Asia Pacific shedding 0.8%, the most in nearly a month, snapping a three-day advance. China and India were able to buck the regional move. China's economic data was mostly softer than expected and is consistent with a gradual turn in the cycle as the Lunar New effect fades.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 14: US Dollar Slips in Quiet Turnover

2018-05-14

by

2018-05-14

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile against most of the major and emerging market currencies to start the new week. It already seemed to be tiring in the second half of last week. With today's mild losses, Dollar Index is off for a fourth consecutive session, the longest losing streak in over a month. The US and China appear to have taken measure to diffuse the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 11: Dollar Momentum Sapped, Near-Term Pullback Likely

2018-05-11

by

2018-05-11

The US dollar pulled back following yesterday's slightly softer than expected CPI report and this likely marks the beginning of a new phase, with the dollar moving lower. Investors have learned over the past two weeks that neither wages nor consumer prices are accelerating. There is little reason in the recent string of data or official comments to suggest a more hawkish path for monetary policy (e.g., four rate hikes this year).

Read More »

FX Daily, May 10: Kiwi Tumbles on Dovish RBNZ, While Sterling Goes Nowhere Ahead of BOE

2018-05-10

by

2018-05-10

The US dollar is consolidating in narrow trading against most of the major currencies as participants digest several developments ahead of what was expected to be the highlight today, the BOE meeting and US April CPI. The greenback's consolidation is giving it a heavier bias against most of the major currencies. The recently strong upside momentum has stalled, but the losses are modest and the euro and sterling are inside yesterday's ranges.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 08: Dollar Races Ahead

2018-05-08

by

2018-05-08

The US dollar's surge continues. The Dollar Index is testing the space above 93.00. A month ago it was below 90. It does not appear to require fresh developments. The market continues to trade as if there are short dollar positions that are trapped at higher levels and the briefest and shallow pullbacks are new opportunities to adjust positions.

Read More »