Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Rising downside risks to euro area growth

While our forecasts remain unchanged for now, external drags on growth prospects for the euro area look set to persist for longer than we had previously expected.A potential improvement in euro area growth in H2 2019 on the back of a revival in the global economy is in jeopardy due to the intensifying trade dispute between the US and China.

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Pictet – In Conversation with Rahaf Harfoush

Anthropologist Rahaf Harfoush was in the Bahamas for 2019’s Latam Family Office Master Class to enlighten Latin American families on how shifting technology consumption is affecting how we interact with each other and redefining our belief systems. Despite the challenges for companies and individuals when it comes to navigating fake data and adapting to a new digital ethical landscape, she also argues that there are plenty of investor prospects, in...

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Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth, Nassau

Technology plays an increasingly important role in our lives, from business interactions to the way we communicate in our private lives. Pictet’s 2019 edition of its annual Latam Family Office masterclass – which took place in Nassau, the Bahamas – delved into this topic around the central themes of geopolitics, families and the new power of social media. Alongside a Pictet line-up that included managing partners Marc Pictet and Boris Collardi,...

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Pictet – In Conversation with Rahaf Harfoush

Anthropologist Rahaf Harfoush was in the Bahamas for 2019’s Latam Family Office Master Class to enlighten Latin American families on how shifting technology consumption is affecting how we interact with each other and redefining our belief systems. Despite the challenges for companies and individuals when it comes to navigating fake data and adapting to a …

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Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth, Nassau

Technology plays an increasingly important role in our lives, from business interactions to the way we communicate in our private lives. Pictet’s 2019 edition of its annual Latam Family Office masterclass – which took place in Nassau, the Bahamas – delved into this topic around the central themes of geopolitics, families and the new power …

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French tax cuts designed to reboot Macron’s presidency

The French government’s respond to the ‘yellow vest’ protests could provide a meaningful boost to consumer spending, mostly next year.Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing.

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Pictet Perspectives — What we are watching for now

Equity markets have reached new highs, extending the longest bull market in US history. However, César Pérez Ruiz, Head of Investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, is conscious of complacency in markets and keeping protection on portfolios as tail risks remain. Geopolitical developments such as the potential escalation of Iranian tensions and drawn-out trade negotiations between the US and China, could send short-term volatility through...

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Pictet Perspectives — What we are watching for now

Equity markets have reached new highs, extending the longest bull market in US history. However, César Pérez Ruiz, Head of Investments and CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, is conscious of complacency in markets and keeping protection on portfolios as tail risks remain. Geopolitical developments such as the potential escalation of Iranian tensions and drawn-out trade …

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Is Europe turning Japanese?

European investment opportunities remain, despite financial repression in the region.The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised market watchers with its dovish turn in January, wiping out any prospect of an interest-rate rise this year and revising its growth projections for the euro area downward for 2019.

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Peripheral bonds after the Spanish election

We remain underweight peripheral euro area bonds in general due to continued political uncertainty, which will feed volatility.On April 28, Spain held its third general election in less than four years. As was expected, the centre-left Socialists (PSOE) emerged the largest party, but it does not have an absolute majority, so negotiations with other parties will be needed.

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Switzerland: Lower growth, lower inflation

Growth and price rises should moderate in 2019.The Swiss economy posted impressive GDP growth in 2018, although there was significant divergence between strong growth in the first half and stagnation in the second. Overall, we expect Swiss GDP to expand by 1.3% in 2019, down substantially from 2.5% in 2018. Risks to our growth outlook for Switzerland are tilted to the downside.

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Limited room for Swiss franc depreciation

Even should global economic momentum stabilise in the coming months and political risks abate, the franc still has important structural underpinnings.The Swiss franc has been supported by a structural current account surplus and by reduced investment flows out of Switzerland since the 2008 financial crisis. In addition, the decline in global yields since the Fed’s dovish shift early this year has rendered interest rate differentials less...

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Getting ready for tiering

ECB officials have hinted at policy measures aimed at reducing the cost of negative rates for the banking sector, including a tiered system of bank reserves.Although back in 2016 the European Central Bank (ECB) ruled out tiering of bank reserves to mitigate the side effects of negative rates, the situation has since changed, and it could be implemented eventually if policy rates were to remain negative into 2020.

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China PMIs jump in March

Industrial gauges rebound on seansonality as well as policy easing.Chinese PMI readings moved back into expansion territory in March. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 49.2 in February, and beating the Bloomberg consensus of 49.6, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8, also up from 49.9 in February and beating the consensus expectation of 50.0.

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Oil prices supported by OPEC+ cuts…before market risks being flooded again

Increased US export capacity would probably force OPEC+ to change its current tactics.After last year’s collapse, oil prices have found support since the beginning of this year for several reasons. At this stage, the main question is whether the recent surge in prices is sustainable or whether we will see renewed oil price volatility, with the possibility of a repeat of 2018.

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Q&A on European Parliament elections

European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament's limited ability to set Brussels' agenda.European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their respective national governments. 

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Germany: signs of rebound ?

German growth may remain subdued in H1 2019, before picking up somewhat in H2 2019 as some near-term risks dissipate.Germany’s leading indicator, the Ifo index, rose in March, driven by an increase in both sub-components: current assessment and expectations.

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Fed to Show Tolerance for Higher Inflation, Pictet’s Ducrozet Says

Mar.20 — Frederik Ducrozet, senior economist at Pictet Asset Management, discusses Federal Reserve monetary policy and its inflation target. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance” alongside Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank.

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Brexit update: UK parliament opts for an extension

After an eventful week in parliament, the Brexit ball is set to keep rolling as MPs move to extend the 29 March deadline.The British Parliament concluded a series of votes on Brexit this week with an intention to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. What remains unclear at this point is whether the UK will seek a short (two months) or a longer extension (two years).

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Euro slides against the dollar on ECB dovishness

The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 monthsThe euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months.

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