Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Yellow vest protests cast cloud over Macron’s reform plans

Recent protests could have a negative impact on French growth, tax revenue and president Macron’s reform plans for his country and for Europe. French protests began on November 17 over hikes in fuel taxes, but have progressively broadened out into an expression of general anger with the French government about the cost of living and high taxes.

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Growth Contraction puts pressure on Italian Government

The downward revision to 3Q GDP will make the Italian government’s targets more difficult to achieve and complicate the budget debate with Europe. The Italian statistical office’s (ISTAT) final reading showed that the economy shrank 0.1% q-o-q (-0.5% q-o-q annualised) in Q3, whereas a preliminary reading on October 30 showed that growth was flat.

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Surprise contraction in Swiss Q3 GDP

Switzerland’s growth unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, pushing down our GDP growth forecast for 2018. Recent softening in the euro area also casts doubts about the pace of monetary tightening by the SNB.The strong growth enjoyed by the Swiss economy since Q1 2017 came suddenly to an end in Q3 18, when real GDP shrank unexpectedly by 0.2% q-o-q (-0.9% q-o-q annualised).

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Italy and the EU: a debt-based excessive deficit procedure

European Commission deems Italy's budget noncompliant with EU rules.This week, the European Commission issued its opinion on Italy’s budget plans. Deeming them noncompliant with the EU’s budgetary rules, it recommended that an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) be opened.Of the options available to the EU, a debt-based EDP would be the most difficult for Italy to deal with, as it would last longer and require Italy to ensure its debt stock...

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Pictet – In Conversation with Cesar Perez Ruiz

After a decade of protection from central banks, the markets are changing. But Cesar Perez Ruiz, Pictet’s chief investment officer, says this needn’t be cause for concern. During the Investment Summit, at Pictet’s headquarters in Geneva, he made the case for active management and strategic asset allocation as important contributors to healthy returns.

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Pictet – In Conversation with Cesar Perez Ruiz

After a decade of protection from central banks, the markets are changing. But Cesar Perez Ruiz, Pictet’s chief investment officer, says this needn’t be cause for concern. During the Investment Summit, at Pictet’s headquarters in Geneva, he made the case for active management and strategic asset allocation as important contributors to healthy returns.

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China hard data for October reveals mixed picture

Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt.Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong performance.

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After May’s divorce deal: the road ahead for Brexit

But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months.Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give the EU too much influence on UK...

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Pictet – In Conversation with Edward Luce

With geopolitical currents challenging the west’s long-standing liberal status quo, we live in an age of global uncertainty. But even as the world enters what has been described as a “democratic recession”, there’s cause for optimism. Edward Luce is The Financial Times’ US national editor; at Pictet’s 2018 Investment Summit he outlined how beneficial a truly global perspective can be in the face of change....

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Pictet – In Conversation with Edward Luce

With geopolitical currents challenging the west’s long-standing liberal status quo, we live in an age of global uncertainty. But even as the world enters what has been described as a “democratic recession”, there’s cause for optimism. Edward Luce is The Financial Times’ US national editor; at Pictet’s 2018 Investment Summit he outlined how beneficial a …

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Pictet – Investment Summit

The world is at a crossroads: while geopolitical tensions threaten to upend the established order, developments in areas such as healthcare and technology offer new vistas of possibility for humanity. Uncertainty may seem to be the order of the day but Pictet’s Investment Summit offered a more reassuring message. With more than 200 years of experience, the bank has negotiated the currents of change before; at Pictet’s headquarters in the heart of...

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Pictet – Investment Summit

The world is at a crossroads: while geopolitical tensions threaten to upend the established order, developments in areas such as healthcare and technology offer new vistas of possibility for humanity. Uncertainty may seem to be the order of the day but Pictet’s Investment Summit offered a more reassuring message. With more than 200 years of …

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Italian government sticks to its 2019 deficit plan

The minor concessions continued in the revised plan presented to the European Commission are unlikely to dissuade Brussels from launching sanctions.In a letter to the European Commission on 13 November, the Italian government confirmed that it would aim for a budget deficit at 2.4% of GDP in 2019 and reasserted its real growth forecast of 1.5% for next year.

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Euro area’s fiscal policy to turn supportive of growth next year

Modest fiscal easing could help counter mounting external risks and slowing growth indicators.Euro area member states have all submitted their 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) to the European Commission (EC) by now. These show that, collectively and based on EU Commission’s autumn forecasts, the euro area’s fiscal stance1 will turn supportive in 2019, although it varies significantly from one country to the next.

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The Beginning of the End for Angela Merkel

As a consequence of the heavy drop of support in recent regional elections, Chancellor Merkel has declared she would not run again for leadership of the CDU at the 6-8 December party convention. Merkel also said she would retire from politics at the end of the current parliament in 2021. It is questionable whether she will get that far, and well before then, the transition to a new leader amid a loss of electoral support for the main centre-right...

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Rebound in inflation data brings some relief to the ECB

Euro area flash HICP rose from 2.1% year on year (y-o-y) in September to 2.2% in October, in line with expectations and the highest level since December 2012. Crucially, core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rebounded from 0.9% to 1.1% in October.

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Euro area’s initial growth figures for Q3 prove disappointing

While growth in France rebounded, Italy stalled in Q3. Our full-year forecast for the euro area remains unchanged but is clearly at risk.According to initial estimates, growth in the euro area slowed in Q3 to 0.2% q-o-q (quarter on quarter) from 0.4% in Q2. These latest GDP results were below consensus expectations and our own forecast.

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A Three Question Interview with Nicola Giammarioli, Frederik Ducrozet, and Michala Marcussen

“Financial Risk and Public Debt Management in the Euro Zone” The Johns Hopkins SAIS Global Risk Conference Nicola Giammarioli, European Stability Mechanism, Luxembourg Frederik Ducrozet, Pictet Wealth Management, Switzerland Michala Marcussen, Société Générale, France

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Pictet — In Conversation with Claus Kjeldsen

Consumers have today what Claus Kjeldsen, CEO of the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies (Cifs), calls a “liquid identity.” This means trying to classify consumers by age and gender is no longer effective, and so Cifs studies future trends and scenarios through the lens of social and behavioural science, economics and technology. At the fifth Entrepreneur Summit in Geneva, Claus discussed how so-called strategic adaptation can be applied to...

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Pictet — In Conversation with Claus Kjeldsen

Consumers have today what Claus Kjeldsen, CEO of the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies (Cifs), calls a “liquid identity.” This means trying to classify consumers by age and gender is no longer effective, and so Cifs studies future trends and scenarios through the lens of social and behavioural science, economics and technology. At the fifth …

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