Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Singapore (Abridged version)

2018-12-18

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In Asia, we are seeing a generational shift as the region’s wealth creators hand over stewardship of family wealth to their sons and daughters. As this second generation’s influence grows, the management of family assets and investments is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Over the years, Pictet has been a successful partner in helping both families and …

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Singapore (Full version)

2018-12-18

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In Asia, we are seeing a generational shift as the region’s wealth creators hand over stewardship of family wealth to their sons and daughters. As this second generation’s influence grows, the management of family assets and investments is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Over the years, Pictet has been a successful partner in helping both families and …

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ECB: Still Broadly Confident, but Caution Increasing

2018-12-15

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2018-12-15

ECB Staff Projections
The ECB kept its key rates unchanged (i.e. the main refinancing at 0.00%; the marginal lending facility rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate at -0.4%), in line with consensus. The ECB’s forward guidance on interest rates was kept unchanged. The ECB expects its policy rates to “remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019”.

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ECB Preview: an end to net asset purchases

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

ECB Staff Projections, September - December 2018
With the ECB’s asset purchases due to end this month and forward guidance set to remain unchanged, a focus at next week’s policy meeting will be staff forecasts for growth and inflation. At its Governing Council meeting next week, we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to confirm that its asset purchases will cease at year’s end.

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Yellow vest protests cast cloud over Macron’s reform plans

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

General Government Total Receipts from Taxes and Social Contributions 1995-2018
Recent protests could have a negative impact on French growth, tax revenue and president Macron’s reform plans for his country and for Europe. French protests began on November 17 over hikes in fuel taxes, but have progressively broadened out into an expression of general anger with the French government about the cost of living and high taxes.

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Growth Contraction puts pressure on Italian Government

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

Italy GDP, Q1 - Q3 2018
The downward revision to 3Q GDP will make the Italian government’s targets more difficult to achieve and complicate the budget debate with Europe. The Italian statistical office’s (ISTAT) final reading showed that the economy shrank 0.1% q-o-q (-0.5% q-o-q annualised) in Q3, whereas a preliminary reading on October 30 showed that growth was flat.

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Surprise contraction in Swiss Q3 GDP

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Swiss Quarterly GDP growth 2014-2018
Switzerland’s growth unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, pushing down our GDP growth forecast for 2018. Recent softening in the euro area also casts doubts about the pace of monetary tightening by the SNB.The strong growth enjoyed by the Swiss economy since Q1 2017 came suddenly to an end in Q3 18, when real GDP shrank unexpectedly by 0.2% q-o-q (-0.9% q-o-q annualised).

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Italy and the EU: a debt-based excessive deficit procedure

2018-11-26

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2018-11-26

Italian General Government Debt 2006-2022
European Commission deems Italy's budget noncompliant with EU rules.This week, the European Commission issued its opinion on Italy’s budget plans. Deeming them noncompliant with the EU’s budgetary rules, it recommended that an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) be opened.Of the options available to the EU, a debt-based EDP would be the most difficult for Italy to deal with, as it would last longer and require Italy to ensure its debt stock...

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Pictet – In Conversation with Cesar Perez Ruiz

2018-11-19

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After a decade of protection from central banks, the markets are changing. But Cesar Perez Ruiz, Pictet’s chief investment officer, says this needn’t be cause for concern. During the Investment Summit, at Pictet’s headquarters in Geneva, he made the case for active management and strategic asset allocation as important contributors to healthy returns.

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Pictet – In Conversation with Cesar Perez Ruiz

2018-11-19

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After a decade of protection from central banks, the markets are changing. But Cesar Perez Ruiz, Pictet’s chief investment officer, says this needn’t be cause for concern. During the Investment Summit, at Pictet’s headquarters in Geneva, he made the case for active management and strategic asset allocation as important contributors to healthy returns.

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China hard data for October reveals mixed picture

2018-11-18

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2018-11-18

China Retail Sales in Nominal and Real terms
Disappointing consumption numbers point to growth deceleration in early 2019, but government measures beginning to be felt.Hard data out of China for October was mixed. On the positive side, growth in infrastructure picked up, suggesting the government’s fiscal policy easing is taking effect in the real economy. Industrial production numbers stopped declining, and the mining sector has a particularly strong performance.

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After May’s divorce deal: the road ahead for Brexit

2018-11-17

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2018-11-17

GBP/USD drops after Theresa May's cabinet approves the Eu divorce deal
But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months.Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give the EU too much influence on UK...

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Pictet – In Conversation with Edward Luce

2018-11-16

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With geopolitical currents challenging the west’s long-standing liberal status quo, we live in an age of global uncertainty. But even as the world enters what has been described as a “democratic recession”, there’s cause for optimism. Edward Luce is The Financial Times’ US national editor; at Pictet’s 2018 Investment Summit he outlined how beneficial a truly global perspective can be in the face of change....

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Pictet – In Conversation with Edward Luce

2018-11-16

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With geopolitical currents challenging the west’s long-standing liberal status quo, we live in an age of global uncertainty. But even as the world enters what has been described as a “democratic recession”, there’s cause for optimism. Edward Luce is The Financial Times’ US national editor; at Pictet’s 2018 Investment Summit he outlined how beneficial a …

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Pictet – Investment Summit

2018-11-15

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The world is at a crossroads: while geopolitical tensions threaten to upend the established order, developments in areas such as healthcare and technology offer new vistas of possibility for humanity. Uncertainty may seem to be the order of the day but Pictet’s Investment Summit offered a more reassuring message. With more than 200 years of experience, the bank has negotiated the currents of change before; at Pictet’s headquarters in the heart of...

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Pictet – Investment Summit

2018-11-15

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The world is at a crossroads: while geopolitical tensions threaten to upend the established order, developments in areas such as healthcare and technology offer new vistas of possibility for humanity. Uncertainty may seem to be the order of the day but Pictet’s Investment Summit offered a more reassuring message. With more than 200 years of …

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Italian government sticks to its 2019 deficit plan

2018-11-14

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2018-11-14

Italian: Credit Standards to Non-Financial Corporations
The minor concessions continued in the revised plan presented to the European Commission are unlikely to dissuade Brussels from launching sanctions.In a letter to the European Commission on 13 November, the Italian government confirmed that it would aim for a budget deficit at 2.4% of GDP in 2019 and reasserted its real growth forecast of 1.5% for next year.

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Euro area’s fiscal policy to turn supportive of growth next year

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

Euro Area: Fiscal Stance chart
Modest fiscal easing could help counter mounting external risks and slowing growth indicators.Euro area member states have all submitted their 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) to the European Commission (EC) by now. These show that, collectively and based on EU Commission’s autumn forecasts, the euro area’s fiscal stance1 will turn supportive in 2019, although it varies significantly from one country to the next.

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The Beginning of the End for Angela Merkel

2018-11-04

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2018-11-04

Germany Next General Elections, Sep 2017 - Nov 2018
As a consequence of the heavy drop of support in recent regional elections, Chancellor Merkel has declared she would not run again for leadership of the CDU at the 6-8 December party convention. Merkel also said she would retire from politics at the end of the current parliament in 2021. It is questionable whether she will get that far, and well before then, the transition to a new leader amid a loss of electoral support for the main centre-right...

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Rebound in inflation data brings some relief to the ECB

2018-11-02

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2018-11-02

Euro Area HICP Inflation, 2011 - 2018
Euro area flash HICP rose from 2.1% year on year (y-o-y) in September to 2.2% in October, in line with expectations and the highest level since December 2012. Crucially, core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rebounded from 0.9% to 1.1% in October.

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