Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

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Weekly View – Unsettled

2022-05-10

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2022-05-10

Last week’s 50 bps Fed rate hike was not a surprise. Indeed, Fed chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that a 75 bps hike had not been actively considered was enough to spark a stock rally. But it proved short-lived, with markets quickly returning to their fears about inflation.

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Weekly View – Big Splits

2021-11-16

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2021-11-16

US prices continue to rise, with the US consumer price index (CPI) for October coming in at its highest in three decades. President Biden made a boldly worded response as inflation becomes a growing focus among politicians with their eyes fixed on next year’s midterm elections. Oil prices fell on investors’ expectations that the US could free up strategic reserves to combat energy inflation.

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Weekly View – Central Bank Halloween

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Last week, the US GDP growth figure for Q3 came in lower than expected, while prices moved higher than anticipated and the US Employment Cost Index update rose at its fastest pace in 31 years. The headline increase was driven by the biggest surge in wages since 1982, up 1.5% in the third quarter.

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Weekly View – Widening bottlenecks

2021-10-19

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2021-10-19

After September’s negative performance, last week proved one of the strongest in a while for equity markets. This rebound followed news that the Biden administration will start to tackle the supply-chain and logistics issues that have been preventing deliveries.

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Weekly View – Debt ceiling deadline postponed

2021-10-14

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2021-10-14

China’s high-yield bond crisis continued last week, with yields on the ICE BofA index of Chinese high-yield US dollar bonds moving above 18% at one stage last week, the highest level in a decade. Further nervousness was caused by one real-estate issuer’s decision not to reimburse USD200 mn of offshore bonds--despite having USD4 bn in cash on its balance sheet.

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House View, October 2021

2021-10-05

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2021-10-05

We maintain our tactically neutral position on equities, with the notable exception of Japan, where we see scope for a re-start to Abenomics and for Japanese stocks to continue to close their performance gap with their peers in other developed markets.

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Weekly View – “The lady is not tapering”

2021-09-14

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2021-09-14

As expected, last week the European Central Bank hinted at a “moderate” reduction of the bond buying it undertakes as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). But ECB president Christine Lagarde refrained from providing a precise timeline and she was adamant that a reduction in PEPP purchases did not mean the ECB would tighten financing conditions.

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Weekly View – 50 years later

2021-08-17

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2021-08-17

The rosy US employment picture helped push equities to a new high as US inflation moderated in July. Those looking to fill roles now exceed those looking for work, compelling some small and mid-sized companies to raise wages. Higher prices seem to be keeping the US consumer in check, however, with consumer sentiment hitting its lowest level in a decade.

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Weekly View – Staying on script

2021-07-20

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2021-07-20

Big US banks released their 2Q earnings last week. The figures were good thanks to robust growth in investment-banking income as well as a drop in loan-loss provisions. But banks also reported that wage costs were beginning to rise, and while a booming housing market has boosted mortgage-loan business, the renewed retreat in long-term yields has been a drag on interest income.

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Weekly View – M&A Boom

2021-04-13

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2021-04-13

M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity is on the rise, as companies coming out of the pandemic with strong balance sheets shop for buying opportunities. Last week ACS, a Spanish construction group, approached Italian transport company Atlantia to buy Italy’s largest motorway network. Two big funds are also eyeing Dutch telecommunications company KPN as a potential acquisition target.

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House View, April 2021

2021-04-06

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2021-04-06

We believe that robust earnings growth will overcome concerns about rate increases. Within a neutral position on developed-market equities, we believe sectoral rotation will continue and we remain overweight cyclical markets like the UK and Japan. But while we believe the attractiveness of stocks subject to wild valuation swings will fade, we continue to like cash-rich ‘structural grower’ stocks.

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House View, November 2020

2020-11-10

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2020-11-10

The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat 'blue wave' failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US. 

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Weekly View – A sure thing

2020-10-27

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2020-10-27

Signs from last week’s SURE programme to finance partial unemployment schemes are highly encouraging for the EU’s plans for recovery fund issuance which could start, we believe, in mid-2021. Last week’s SURE issue was close to 14 times oversubscribed at a rate lower than that for French government bonds of comparable duration.

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Weekly View – Biden time for markets

2020-10-16

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2020-10-16

Donald Trump’s poll numbers were looking increasingly unhealthy at the time of writing, but at least the cocktail of drugs administered to the coronavirus-stricken President appears to have worked.

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House View, October 2020

2020-10-05

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2020-10-05

Rising coronavirus cases accompanied by flagging recovery momentum and a fractious run-up to the US elections make prospects for equities highly reliant on 3Q results and further policy stimulus. Against this background we have downgraded our stance on euro area equities from neutral to underweight, following a similar downgrade for US equities in August.

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Weekly View – No breakfast at Tiffany’s

2020-09-18

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2020-09-18

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining.

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House View, September 2020

2020-09-11

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2020-09-11

A surge in new covid-19 cases in a number of countries has interrupted progress towards normality, yet the effects of the virus are becoming more manageable and positive world H2 growth is achievable.

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Weekly View – Election nerves increase

2020-09-10

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2020-09-10

The sell-off in stocks last week showed a certain nervousness about the sharp run-up in tech stocks and the role of big option bets. Indeed, prices in some instances had risen too fast. But this was a technical correction. With the US tech titans generating free cash flow, we do not believe we are facing a repeat of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. 

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Weekly View – The Last Samurai

2020-09-01

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2020-09-01

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead.

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House View, August 2020

2020-08-10

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2020-08-10

We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.

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