Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Pictet Perspectives — Outlook 2021: The year of the phoenix

César Pérez Ruiz, Head of Investment & CIO, on key investment themes for the coming year—Who pays the bill?, Losers’ revenge, and More of the same.

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Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth : Azimut-Benetti

With 2,000 global employees and turnover of nearly 1 billion Euros, the Azimut-Benetti Group is the world's largest manufacturer of motor yachts. Giovanna Vitelli is the daughter of company founder Paolo Vitelli, as well as the group's vice president, responsible for many of its core operations. In this film, she talks us through how she benefited from starting her career outside of the family business, but also explains how family ownership has...

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth: Yamagata Dantsu

Yamagata Dantsu is one of the world's oldest and finest makers of custom handmade carpets. Since its birth in 1935, its workshop in Yamanobe, in Yamagata Prefecture, has created carpets for some of Japan's architectural jewels, including the Imperial Palace and Tokyo's Kabukiza Theatre. In recent years, the company, owned by the Watanabe family, has extended its international reputation through collaborations with some of the world's top designers,...

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House View, November 2020

The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat 'blue wave' failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US. 

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Pictet — Family business: Carl Hansen & Søn

Carl Hansen & Søn, one of the world’s most storied furniture manufacturers, is today run by Knud Erik Hansen, the grandson of the company’s eponymous founder. During his time at the helm, the family business, which is headquartered in southern Denmark, has grown from relative obscurity into a globally renowned brand and now employs over 400 people. With its design credentials cemented and the next generation of the family preparing to take the...

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Weekly View – A sure thing

Signs from last week’s SURE programme to finance partial unemployment schemes are highly encouraging for the EU’s plans for recovery fund issuance which could start, we believe, in mid-2021. Last week’s SURE issue was close to 14 times oversubscribed at a rate lower than that for French government bonds of comparable duration.

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Weekly View – Biden time for markets

Donald Trump’s poll numbers were looking increasingly unhealthy at the time of writing, but at least the cocktail of drugs administered to the coronavirus-stricken President appears to have worked.

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House View, October 2020

Rising coronavirus cases accompanied by flagging recovery momentum and a fractious run-up to the US elections make prospects for equities highly reliant on 3Q results and further policy stimulus. Against this background we have downgraded our stance on euro area equities from neutral to underweight, following a similar downgrade for US equities in August.

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Weekly View – No breakfast at Tiffany’s

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining.

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House View, September 2020

A surge in new covid-19 cases in a number of countries has interrupted progress towards normality, yet the effects of the virus are becoming more manageable and positive world H2 growth is achievable.

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Weekly View – Election nerves increase

The sell-off in stocks last week showed a certain nervousness about the sharp run-up in tech stocks and the role of big option bets. Indeed, prices in some instances had risen too fast. But this was a technical correction. With the US tech titans generating free cash flow, we do not believe we are facing a repeat of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. 

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Weekly View – The Last Samurai

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead.

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Pictet Perspectives — Driving without GPS

With the global economy picking up and markets rallying hard since late March, where do the best investment opportunities lie? PWM’s head of investment presents the case for US growth stocks and European cyclicals, particularly those linked to the ‘green’ transition. And there are ways for playing the volatility that inevitably lies ahead.

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House View, August 2020

We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.

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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic

The sudden, violent recession triggered by this year’s covid-19 outbreak provides further impetus to pre-existing economic and market dynamics.

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Weekly view – The summer grind

All kinds of reasons can be advanced for the tit-for-tat closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston and its US equivalent in Chengdu. These range from a dispute over quarantine requirements for US diplomats returning to China to an attempt by the Trump Administration to distract from troubling virus news and a real threat to American intellectual property and privacy.

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Weekly view – Fog warning

Coronavirus cases in the US are rising and high frequency data in the US such as retail foot traffic and employee working hours have flatlined. Meanwhile, in Q2 results, USD36 bn in trading and fixed-income revenues managed to make up for higher loan provisions for US banks.

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Weekly View – Alive and kicking

In spite of renewed fears of coronavirus clusters in Beijing, data last week suggested the more consumer-oriented sides of the Chinese economy were tracking improvements in industry, with a year-on-year increase in auto sales in May. UK retail sales were also encouraging, but the biggest surprise came from the US where May’s 18% rise in retail sales month on month was double analysts’ expectations.

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Pictet & Mater — Furnishing a sustainable future (Abridged version)

Long before environmentalism became a popular concern, Henrik Marstrand created Mater in 2006, a Danish furniture company that prides itself on timeless design with sustainability at its core. Designing and producing all their own pieces, Marstrand’s new line of outdoor chairs and tables was based on original designs from Nanna and Jørgen Ditzel and is made from recycled fishing nets and ropes. This initiative is helping to offset the five million...

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Weekly View – Reality check

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

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