Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Weekly View – Widening bottlenecks

After September’s negative performance, last week proved one of the strongest in a while for equity markets. This rebound followed news that the Biden administration will start to tackle the supply-chain and logistics issues that have been preventing deliveries.

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Weekly View – Debt ceiling deadline postponed

China’s high-yield bond crisis continued last week, with yields on the ICE BofA index of Chinese high-yield US dollar bonds moving above 18% at one stage last week, the highest level in a decade. Further nervousness was caused by one real-estate issuer’s decision not to reimburse USD200 mn of offshore bonds--despite having USD4 bn in cash on its balance sheet.

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Pictet – Perspectives: Where to invest until 2022

As we near year’s end, markets have been increasingly expressing concerns grow about growth momentum, supply bottlenecks and events in China. But César Pérez Ruiz, CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, remains constructive, believing we are still in the middle of the recovery cycle. He continues to see opportunities in companies with pricing power and those keyed into the green economy, as well as in alternatives like hedge funds and real estate (a good...

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House View, October 2021

We maintain our tactically neutral position on equities, with the notable exception of Japan, where we see scope for a re-start to Abenomics and for Japanese stocks to continue to close their performance gap with their peers in other developed markets.

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Weekly View – “The lady is not tapering”

As expected, last week the European Central Bank hinted at a “moderate” reduction of the bond buying it undertakes as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). But ECB president Christine Lagarde refrained from providing a precise timeline and she was adamant that a reduction in PEPP purchases did not mean the ECB would tighten financing conditions.

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Weekly View – 50 years later

The rosy US employment picture helped push equities to a new high as US inflation moderated in July. Those looking to fill roles now exceed those looking for work, compelling some small and mid-sized companies to raise wages. Higher prices seem to be keeping the US consumer in check, however, with consumer sentiment hitting its lowest level in a decade.

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Weekly View – Staying on script

Big US banks released their 2Q earnings last week. The figures were good thanks to robust growth in investment-banking income as well as a drop in loan-loss provisions. But banks also reported that wage costs were beginning to rise, and while a booming housing market has boosted mortgage-loan business, the renewed retreat in long-term yields has been a drag on interest income.

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Weekly View – M&A Boom

M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity is on the rise, as companies coming out of the pandemic with strong balance sheets shop for buying opportunities. Last week ACS, a Spanish construction group, approached Italian transport company Atlantia to buy Italy’s largest motorway network. Two big funds are also eyeing Dutch telecommunications company KPN as a potential acquisition target.

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House View, April 2021

We believe that robust earnings growth will overcome concerns about rate increases. Within a neutral position on developed-market equities, we believe sectoral rotation will continue and we remain overweight cyclical markets like the UK and Japan. But while we believe the attractiveness of stocks subject to wild valuation swings will fade, we continue to like cash-rich ‘structural grower’ stocks.

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Pictet Perspectives — Outlook 2021: The year of the phoenix

César Pérez Ruiz, Head of Investment & CIO, on key investment themes for the coming year—Who pays the bill?, Losers’ revenge, and More of the same.

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Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth : Azimut-Benetti

With 2,000 global employees and turnover of nearly 1 billion Euros, the Azimut-Benetti Group is the world's largest manufacturer of motor yachts. Giovanna Vitelli is the daughter of company founder Paolo Vitelli, as well as the group's vice president, responsible for many of its core operations. In this film, she talks us through how she benefited from starting her career outside of the family business, but also explains how family ownership has...

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth: Yamagata Dantsu

Yamagata Dantsu is one of the world's oldest and finest makers of custom handmade carpets. Since its birth in 1935, its workshop in Yamanobe, in Yamagata Prefecture, has created carpets for some of Japan's architectural jewels, including the Imperial Palace and Tokyo's Kabukiza Theatre. In recent years, the company, owned by the Watanabe family, has extended its international reputation through collaborations with some of the world's top designers,...

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House View, November 2020

The upsurge in covid-19 cases will likely hurt global economic prospects in the current quarter. With a Democrat 'blue wave' failing materialise in the US elections, hopes of a substantial spending bill have faded and there is risk that US household incomes suffer as existing support measures fade. In the meantime, covid-19 infections continue surge in the US. 

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Pictet — Family business: Carl Hansen & Søn

Carl Hansen & Søn, one of the world’s most storied furniture manufacturers, is today run by Knud Erik Hansen, the grandson of the company’s eponymous founder. During his time at the helm, the family business, which is headquartered in southern Denmark, has grown from relative obscurity into a globally renowned brand and now employs over 400 people. With its design credentials cemented and the next generation of the family preparing to take the...

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Weekly View – A sure thing

Signs from last week’s SURE programme to finance partial unemployment schemes are highly encouraging for the EU’s plans for recovery fund issuance which could start, we believe, in mid-2021. Last week’s SURE issue was close to 14 times oversubscribed at a rate lower than that for French government bonds of comparable duration.

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Weekly View – Biden time for markets

Donald Trump’s poll numbers were looking increasingly unhealthy at the time of writing, but at least the cocktail of drugs administered to the coronavirus-stricken President appears to have worked.

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House View, October 2020

Rising coronavirus cases accompanied by flagging recovery momentum and a fractious run-up to the US elections make prospects for equities highly reliant on 3Q results and further policy stimulus. Against this background we have downgraded our stance on euro area equities from neutral to underweight, following a similar downgrade for US equities in August.

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Weekly View – No breakfast at Tiffany’s

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining.

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House View, September 2020

A surge in new covid-19 cases in a number of countries has interrupted progress towards normality, yet the effects of the virus are becoming more manageable and positive world H2 growth is achievable.

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Weekly View – Election nerves increase

The sell-off in stocks last week showed a certain nervousness about the sharp run-up in tech stocks and the role of big option bets. Indeed, prices in some instances had risen too fast. But this was a technical correction. With the US tech titans generating free cash flow, we do not believe we are facing a repeat of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. 

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