Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Weekly View – No breakfast at Tiffany’s

The impact of political tensions on business is ever more apparent: LVMH of France will not, after all, proceed with the purchase of Tiffany of the US. If, as seems likely, the hand of the French government was involved, this is solid evidence that political sensitivities are increasingly influencing cross-border deals – something that is likely to remain the case just as M&A in general has been declining.

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House View, September 2020

A surge in new covid-19 cases in a number of countries has interrupted progress towards normality, yet the effects of the virus are becoming more manageable and positive world H2 growth is achievable.

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Weekly View – Election nerves increase

The sell-off in stocks last week showed a certain nervousness about the sharp run-up in tech stocks and the role of big option bets. Indeed, prices in some instances had risen too fast. But this was a technical correction. With the US tech titans generating free cash flow, we do not believe we are facing a repeat of the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. 

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Weekly View – The Last Samurai

The CIO office’s view of the week ahead.We are in the midst of a decisive elections season, from the surprise, poll-defying victory of the conservative coalition in Australia and Indian general elections last weekend to the European parliament elections in the week ahead.

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Pictet Perspectives — Driving without GPS

With the global economy picking up and markets rallying hard since late March, where do the best investment opportunities lie? PWM’s head of investment presents the case for US growth stocks and European cyclicals, particularly those linked to the ‘green’ transition. And there are ways for playing the volatility that inevitably lies ahead.

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House View, August 2020

We have revised up our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 to -8.5%, mainly due to improving data in Germany, which is better positioned to recover rapidly from the downturn than its European peers. Meanwhile, the US economy has shown signs of flatlining amid escalating covid-19 cases in the South. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, while weekly unemployment claims have been rising again.

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Horizon 2020: long-term investing in a world marked by pandemic

The sudden, violent recession triggered by this year’s covid-19 outbreak provides further impetus to pre-existing economic and market dynamics.

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Weekly view – The summer grind

All kinds of reasons can be advanced for the tit-for-tat closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston and its US equivalent in Chengdu. These range from a dispute over quarantine requirements for US diplomats returning to China to an attempt by the Trump Administration to distract from troubling virus news and a real threat to American intellectual property and privacy.

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Weekly view – Fog warning

Coronavirus cases in the US are rising and high frequency data in the US such as retail foot traffic and employee working hours have flatlined. Meanwhile, in Q2 results, USD36 bn in trading and fixed-income revenues managed to make up for higher loan provisions for US banks.

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Weekly View – Alive and kicking

In spite of renewed fears of coronavirus clusters in Beijing, data last week suggested the more consumer-oriented sides of the Chinese economy were tracking improvements in industry, with a year-on-year increase in auto sales in May. UK retail sales were also encouraging, but the biggest surprise came from the US where May’s 18% rise in retail sales month on month was double analysts’ expectations.

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Pictet & Mater — Furnishing a sustainable future (Abridged version)

Long before environmentalism became a popular concern, Henrik Marstrand created Mater in 2006, a Danish furniture company that prides itself on timeless design with sustainability at its core. Designing and producing all their own pieces, Marstrand’s new line of outdoor chairs and tables was based on original designs from Nanna and Jørgen Ditzel and is made from recycled fishing nets and ropes. This initiative is helping to offset the five million...

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Weekly View – Reality check

The short-term pull-back in stock prices last week on the back of persistent virus concerns in the US and elsewhere shows the market remains jittery despite the massive run-up in prices since late March. May data from China showed a relatively fast rebound on the supply side of the economy, but a much slower take-off in consumption, suggesting a ‘reverse square root’ kind of recovery for economies rather than the ‘v’-shaped one markets have been...

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Pictet Perspectives Trailer



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Pictet Perspectives Trailer



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Pictet — Perspectives: Near-Term Investment Themes and Challenges

Markets are pricing in fully several optimistic scenarios, yet there are attractive plays in investment grade credit and equities. Meanwhile, over the summer, we await a clearer picture on how realistic this optimism proves to be over the longer term. https://perspectives.group.pictet

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Pictet — Perspectives: Near-Term Investment Themes and Challenges

Markets are pricing in fully several optimistic scenarios, yet there are attractive plays in investment grade credit and equities. Meanwhile, over the summer, we await a clearer picture on how realistic this optimism proves to be over the longer term. https://perspectives.group.pictet

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Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk

Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.

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Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis

US policymakers’ bold actions in response to the coronavirus bear some traces of the free-wheeling deficits, repressed interest rates and central bank activism (money creation) that form the cornerstones of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) playbook.

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House View, May 2020

With leading economies likely facing double-digit declines in GDP in Q1 and Q2, we expect Brent oil in the USD10–20 range in Q2 before reaching a long-term equilibrium of USD18 at year’s end. With consumers tempted to remain cautious, the oil sector in deep difficulty and a big rise in unemployment, we expect dire Q2 GDP figures for the US. We have reduced our GDP forecast for 2020 as a whole to -7.7%.

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Abridged version)

Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help of his children, his uncompromising commitment to quality has helped to...

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