Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Weekly View – One country, two systems at risk

Last week, German chancellor Merkel delivered a surprise about-face when she and French president Macron announced a proposal for a EUR 500bn recovery fund in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. The unprecedented plan involves the distribution of grants, rather than loans, to member states in economic need.

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Modern Monetary Theory makes inroads following coronavirus crisis

US policymakers’ bold actions in response to the coronavirus bear some traces of the free-wheeling deficits, repressed interest rates and central bank activism (money creation) that form the cornerstones of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) playbook.

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House View, May 2020

With leading economies likely facing double-digit declines in GDP in Q1 and Q2, we expect Brent oil in the USD10–20 range in Q2 before reaching a long-term equilibrium of USD18 at year’s end. With consumers tempted to remain cautious, the oil sector in deep difficulty and a big rise in unemployment, we expect dire Q2 GDP figures for the US. We have reduced our GDP forecast for 2020 as a whole to -7.7%.

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Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Abridged version)

Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help of his children, his uncompromising commitment to quality has helped to...

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Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Full version)

Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help of his children, his uncompromising commitment to quality has helped to...

Read More »

Pictet – Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Abridged version)

Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help …

Read More »

Pictet — Multi-Generational Wealth, Gaja (Full version)

Five generations after Giovanni Gaja founded his eponymous winery in the Piedmontese town of Barbaresco, the family continues to produce some of Italy’s best vintages. Giovanni’s great grandson, Angelo, revolutionised Italian winemaking by experimenting with foreign grape varieties and employing new oak and a longer ageing process. Angelo’s efforts paid off and, with the help …

Read More »

Deflation risks might be on the rise, strategist says

Frederik Ducrozet, strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, outlines what he expects from the ECB on Thursday.

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A reality check on China’s return to work

The recent recovery in industrial activity seems to have stalled, probably because of the collapse in external demand and high levels of vigilance inside China. Since the large-scale coronavirus infection was contained, the Chinese government has been trying hard to get the economy back on track. The end of the lockdown in Wuhan after two in a half months is an important milestone in that respect.

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Central banks to the rescue

While expecting long-term yields to be capped, we remain neutral on US Treasuries. We think peripheral euro area bonds to avoid the levels of stress seen during the sovereign debt crisis.

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Pictet & Mater — Furnishing a sustainable future

Long before environmentalism became a popular concern, Henrik Marstrand created Mater in 2006, a Danish furniture company that prides itself on timeless design with sustainability at its core. Designing and producing all their own pieces, Marstrand’s new line of outdoor chairs and tables was based on original designs from Nanna and Jørgen Ditzel and is made from recycled fishing nets and ropes. This initiative is helping to offset the five million...

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Pictet & Mater — Furnishing a sustainable future

Long before environmentalism became a popular concern, Henrik Marstrand created Mater in 2006, a Danish furniture company that prides itself on timeless design with sustainability at its core. Designing and producing all their own pieces, Marstrand’s new line of outdoor chairs and tables was based on original designs from Nanna and Jørgen Ditzel and is …

Read More »

Weekly View – Merkel under pressure

Euro-area growth has hit a slow patch. Following promising signs of having turned a corner, economic data released last week revealed that Q4 growth in the euro area reached its slowest pace since the European debt crisis. German growth was flat for Q4, in line with expectations. As far as Germany’s outlook goes, dark clouds have taken the form of an uncertain political environment and China’s recent weakness.

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Pictet Perspectives — From the last 10 years to the coming one

The end of 2019 marks an opportunity to review not only a year, but a decade in the economy and markets. Central banks certainly dominated the last decade, but corporations also delivered – driving earnings growth that propelled both stock price returns and dividends. 2019 was an exceptional year in markets but earnings growth was flat. We go into 2020 with some reason for continued caution but also grounds for optimism, given several patches of...

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Pictet Perspectives — From the last 10 years to the coming one

The end of 2019 marks an opportunity to review not only a year, but a decade in the economy and markets. Central banks certainly dominated the last decade, but corporations also delivered – driving earnings growth that propelled both stock price returns and dividends. 2019 was an exceptional year in markets but earnings growth was …

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House View, January 2020

Our asset allocation is dominated by a wish to stay diversified in a fragile environment. Continued ‘noise’ around trade is likely to leave markets alternating between disappointment and hope. With this in mind, we have a neutral stance on government bonds and developed-market equities alike, although we still see select opportunities in equities and appreciate the protective function of safe-haven bonds.

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ECB: Preview of the review

We see the ECB remaining on hold throughout next year although we believe it could tweak some of the technical parameters of its toolkit. The first press conference of any new ECB President is an event in itself, and this time will be no different. Christine Lagarde's debut this week will understandably attract a lot of attention as the media and market participants scrutinise both form and substance.

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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

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Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook

Neutral US Treasuries. We expect the US 10-year yield to fall towards 1.3% in H1 as US growth falters and the US Federal Reserve starts signalling additional rate cuts. However, continued monetary easing and election promises (i.e. fiscal stimulus) could boost inflation expectations in H2, with the 10-year yield ending 2020 at around 1.6% in our central scenario.

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Euro Area 2020 Macro Outlook

After an estimated 1.2% in 2019, we expect GDP growth of 1.0% in the euro area in 2020. Country wise, we expect more manufacturing-intense countries to underperform more domestically driven ones. Thus, we project weak growth of 0.7% in Germany and 0.4% in Italy in 2020, while we expect France and Spain to remain relatively resilient, growing by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

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