Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Currencies: do it with style

Our scenario of ongoing global growth moderation and elevated political uncertainties should, we believe, support defensive currencies. We consider a currency ‘defensive’ if it is likely to remain resilient should global risk appetite falter.

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Pictet — Investment Summit

The Pictet Investment Summit is designed as a forum where a range of internal and external experts present their visions of the investment landscape. David Rubinstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was one of the guests of the 2019 edition. In this video, he assesses trends in private equity, including the growing influence of family offices and emerging markets, and reflects on the long relationship between the Carlyle Group and Pictet. This...

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Pictet — Investment Summit

The Pictet Investment Summit is designed as a forum where a range of internal and external experts present their visions of the investment landscape. David Rubinstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was one of the guests of the 2019 edition. In this video, he assesses trends in private equity, including the growing influence of family …

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Steady euro area growth and rise in core inflation

According to Eurostat’s preliminary figures, euro area GDP grew by 0.2% quarter on quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2 and in line with our expectations. Country wise, France, Italy and Spain grew at the same pace in Q3 as in Q2. In particular, household and investment spending grew at a solid pace in both France and Spain. The preliminary GDP figure for Germany will not be released until 14 November.

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Pictet — The Entrepreneurs

Innovation and sustainability were high on the agenda at the annual Pictet Entrepreneur’s Summit. These two themes were thoroughly dissected by a stellar panel of international thinkers and doers who spoke about the challenges and opportunities available to entrepreneurs. Experts included ex-Managing Director of Google UK and fintech founder Dan Cobley, the man who turned Patagonia into a multi-billion dollar business, Michael Crooke, and author...

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Pictet — The Entrepreneurs

Innovation and sustainability were high on the agenda at the annual Pictet Entrepreneur’s Summit. These two themes were thoroughly dissected by a stellar panel of international thinkers and doers who spoke about the challenges and opportunities available to entrepreneurs. Experts included ex-Managing Director of Google UK and fintech founder Dan Cobley, the man who turned …

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Pictet Perspectives – Value Stocks start to make a comeback ?

Markets have reached new highs, but looking beneath the surface reveals a more complex picture. Over the last 18 months, investors have ploughed into companies with a growth style bias at the sake of value, pushing the valuation differential between the two styles to an extreme. At this point, it does not require a dramatic rotation to narrow that valuation differential and we are now starting to see renewed investor interest in value-style stocks.

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Pictet Perspectives – Value Stocks start to make a comeback ?

Markets have reached new highs, but looking beneath the surface reveals a more complex picture. Over the last 18 months, investors have ploughed into companies with a growth style bias at the sake of value, pushing the valuation differential between the two styles to an extreme. At this point, it does not require a dramatic …

Read More »

Pictet Perspectives — Towards ‘Chinafication’

With growth indicators faltering and markets unsettled, policy makers in advanced economies are being forced to look at new ways to prolong the expansion. In many ways, their concerns are the same as their Chinese counterparts’. Could (Should) they also adopt Chinese economic policies? https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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Pictet Perspectives — Towards ‘Chinafication’

With growth indicators faltering and markets unsettled, policy makers in advanced economies are being forced to look at new ways to prolong the expansion. In many ways, their concerns are the same as their Chinese counterparts’. Could (Should) they also adopt Chinese economic policies? https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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MMT, la nouvelle théorie en vogue à Washington

L’influence du ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ est susceptible d’augmenter dans les milieux économiques et politiques américains.La nouvelle théorie monétaire (Modern Monetary Theory/MMT), théorie macroéconomique défendue par des économistes hétérodoxes, commence à faire son chemin aux Etats-Unis.

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Euro/USD: things look pretty stable

Competing forces mean the two currencies could remain in a holding pattern for a while.The euro has remained relatively stable relative to the US dollar in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meetings. Growth and interest rate differentials, two key drivers for the EUR/USD rate, suggest things could stay this way.

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Powell plays the ‘insurance’ card again

In spite of internal divisions, the Fed may go for a third rate cut in October and step in to alleviate pressure in repo market.The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. The new fed funds target range is 1.75%-2.00%. The interest rate on banks’ excess reserves was cut by 0.30% to 1.80%.

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Oil prices and the global economy

Low oil prices are good news for disposable income. But they also reflect the risk of oversupply in a world where growth indicators continue to point down.Events since Trump first threatened increased tariffs in 2017 provide a textbook example of how tariffs are transmitted through the global economy. First, the uncertainty they create hurts sentiment.

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Swiss National Bank – Between a rock and a hard place

We expect the Swiss National Bank to stay on hold at its next policy meeting, but a lot will depend on ECB and Fed meetings.Uncertainties and global slowdown are weighing on business investment in Switzerland, while household consumption growth has been slowing. Swiss GDP rose by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 (down from 0.4% in Q1), mainly due to spending in healthcare, housing and energy.

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Pictet Perspectives — What can investors do in uncertain times?

While a global recession may not be imminent, we are clearly late in the cycle and economies and markets are not immune from accidents. Certain well-defined investment themes are particularly relevant at this juncture, argues Pictet Wealth Management’s head of investments.

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Pictet Perspectives — What can investors do in uncertain times?

While a global recession may not be imminent, we are clearly late in the cycle and economies and markets are not immune from accidents. Certain well-defined investment themes are particularly relevant at this juncture, argues Pictet Wealth Management’s head of investments.

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Brazilian real stands out in EM currency scorecard

Prospects for emerging-market currencies look cloudy. The currencies of countries with sound external buffers and limited exposure to global trade should fare relatively better than others.In recent months, the global environment has become more challenging for EM currencies. Trade tensions have increased and are weighing on economic activity. Commodity prices have also fallen.

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Emerging market sovereign debt update: yields are falling

Yields have fallen significantly in the EM sovereign bond space in local currency; USD movements will be key to watch for going forward.Yields have fallen impressively in the emerging market (EM) sovereign bond space in local currency, reaching 5.3% on 16 August, near their all-time low of 5.2% (in May 2013). This downward movement has been partly driven by the recent policy rate cuts of some EM central banks.

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Italy: Back to polls in Q4 2019?

Recent developments in Italy’s political landscape have increased the probability of early elections in Q4 2019, but the situation is not so straightforward. Last week, political tensions in Italy intensified as Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader triggered a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.PM Conte will address the Senate on 20 August.

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