Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

2019-12-07

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2019-12-07

S&P 500 1-year Realised Volatility vs Effective Fed Funds Real Rates, 1990-2019
Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

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Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook

2019-12-06

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2019-12-06

10-year Core Sovereign Yields, 2017-2019
Neutral US Treasuries. We expect the US 10-year yield to fall towards 1.3% in H1 as US growth falters and the US Federal Reserve starts signalling additional rate cuts. However, continued monetary easing and election promises (i.e. fiscal stimulus) could boost inflation expectations in H2, with the 10-year yield ending 2020 at around 1.6% in our central scenario.

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Euro Area 2020 Macro Outlook

2019-11-29

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2019-11-29

After an estimated 1.2% in 2019, we expect GDP growth of 1.0% in the euro area in 2020. Country wise, we expect more manufacturing-intense countries to underperform more domestically driven ones. Thus, we project weak growth of 0.7% in Germany and 0.4% in Italy in 2020, while we expect France and Spain to remain relatively resilient, growing by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

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Currencies: do it with style

2019-11-25

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2019-11-25

SPOT PERFORMANCE OF CURRENCIES BY STYLE (YTD, VS.USD)
Our scenario of ongoing global growth moderation and elevated political uncertainties should, we believe, support defensive currencies. We consider a currency ‘defensive’ if it is likely to remain resilient should global risk appetite falter.

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Pictet — Investment Summit

2019-11-19

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The Pictet Investment Summit is designed as a forum where a range of internal and external experts present their visions of the investment landscape. David Rubinstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was one of the guests of the 2019 edition. In this video, he assesses trends in private equity, including the growing influence of family offices and emerging markets, and reflects on the long relationship between the Carlyle Group and Pictet. This...

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Pictet — Investment Summit

2019-11-19

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The Pictet Investment Summit is designed as a forum where a range of internal and external experts present their visions of the investment landscape. David Rubinstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was one of the guests of the 2019 edition. In this video, he assesses trends in private equity, including the growing influence of family …

Read More »

Steady euro area growth and rise in core inflation

2019-11-04

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2019-11-04

Euro Area Quarterly GDP growth by Country
According to Eurostat’s preliminary figures, euro area GDP grew by 0.2% quarter on quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2 and in line with our expectations. Country wise, France, Italy and Spain grew at the same pace in Q3 as in Q2. In particular, household and investment spending grew at a solid pace in both France and Spain. The preliminary GDP figure for Germany will not be released until 14 November.

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Pictet — The Entrepreneurs

2019-10-31

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Innovation and sustainability were high on the agenda at the annual Pictet Entrepreneur’s Summit. These two themes were thoroughly dissected by a stellar panel of international thinkers and doers who spoke about the challenges and opportunities available to entrepreneurs. Experts included ex-Managing Director of Google UK and fintech founder Dan Cobley, the man who turned Patagonia into a multi-billion dollar business, Michael Crooke, and author...

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Pictet — The Entrepreneurs

2019-10-31

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Innovation and sustainability were high on the agenda at the annual Pictet Entrepreneur’s Summit. These two themes were thoroughly dissected by a stellar panel of international thinkers and doers who spoke about the challenges and opportunities available to entrepreneurs. Experts included ex-Managing Director of Google UK and fintech founder Dan Cobley, the man who turned …

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Pictet Perspectives – Value Stocks start to make a comeback ?

2019-10-29

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Markets have reached new highs, but looking beneath the surface reveals a more complex picture. Over the last 18 months, investors have ploughed into companies with a growth style bias at the sake of value, pushing the valuation differential between the two styles to an extreme. At this point, it does not require a dramatic rotation to narrow that valuation differential and we are now starting to see renewed investor interest in value-style stocks.

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Pictet Perspectives – Value Stocks start to make a comeback ?

2019-10-29

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Markets have reached new highs, but looking beneath the surface reveals a more complex picture. Over the last 18 months, investors have ploughed into companies with a growth style bias at the sake of value, pushing the valuation differential between the two styles to an extreme. At this point, it does not require a dramatic …

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Pictet Perspectives — Towards ‘Chinafication’

2019-10-03

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With growth indicators faltering and markets unsettled, policy makers in advanced economies are being forced to look at new ways to prolong the expansion. In many ways, their concerns are the same as their Chinese counterparts’. Could (Should) they also adopt Chinese economic policies? https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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Pictet Perspectives — Towards ‘Chinafication’

2019-10-03

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With growth indicators faltering and markets unsettled, policy makers in advanced economies are being forced to look at new ways to prolong the expansion. In many ways, their concerns are the same as their Chinese counterparts’. Could (Should) they also adopt Chinese economic policies? https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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MMT, la nouvelle théorie en vogue à Washington

2019-09-22

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2019-09-22

Bank Reserves (at Fed) 1995-2019
L’influence du ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ est susceptible d’augmenter dans les milieux économiques et politiques américains.La nouvelle théorie monétaire (Modern Monetary Theory/MMT), théorie macroéconomique défendue par des économistes hétérodoxes, commence à faire son chemin aux Etats-Unis.

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Euro/USD: things look pretty stable

2019-09-21

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2019-09-21

EUR/USD vs Leading Indicators Spread, 2006-2020
Competing forces mean the two currencies could remain in a holding pattern for a while.The euro has remained relatively stable relative to the US dollar in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meetings. Growth and interest rate differentials, two key drivers for the EUR/USD rate, suggest things could stay this way.

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Powell plays the ‘insurance’ card again

2019-09-19

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2019-09-19

The Market Continues to Distrust the FED Dot Plot, Which Shows no Additional cut, 2018-2021
In spite of internal divisions, the Fed may go for a third rate cut in October and step in to alleviate pressure in repo market.The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. The new fed funds target range is 1.75%-2.00%. The interest rate on banks’ excess reserves was cut by 0.30% to 1.80%.

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Oil prices and the global economy

2019-09-11

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2019-09-11

Oil Prices, 2018-2019
Low oil prices are good news for disposable income. But they also reflect the risk of oversupply in a world where growth indicators continue to point down.Events since Trump first threatened increased tariffs in 2017 provide a textbook example of how tariffs are transmitted through the global economy. First, the uncertainty they create hurts sentiment.

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Swiss National Bank – Between a rock and a hard place

2019-09-10

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2019-09-10

Swiss Quarterly GDP Growth, 2011-2019
We expect the Swiss National Bank to stay on hold at its next policy meeting, but a lot will depend on ECB and Fed meetings.Uncertainties and global slowdown are weighing on business investment in Switzerland, while household consumption growth has been slowing. Swiss GDP rose by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 (down from 0.4% in Q1), mainly due to spending in healthcare, housing and energy.

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Pictet Perspectives — What can investors do in uncertain times?

2019-09-09

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While a global recession may not be imminent, we are clearly late in the cycle and economies and markets are not immune from accidents. Certain well-defined investment themes are particularly relevant at this juncture, argues Pictet Wealth Management’s head of investments.

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Pictet Perspectives — What can investors do in uncertain times?

2019-09-09

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While a global recession may not be imminent, we are clearly late in the cycle and economies and markets are not immune from accidents. Certain well-defined investment themes are particularly relevant at this juncture, argues Pictet Wealth Management’s head of investments.

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