Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

Pictet Perspectives — From the last 10 years to the coming one

The end of 2019 marks an opportunity to review not only a year, but a decade in the economy and markets. Central banks certainly dominated the last decade, but corporations also delivered – driving earnings growth that propelled both stock price returns and dividends. 2019 was an exceptional year in markets but earnings growth was …

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House View, January 2020

Our asset allocation is dominated by a wish to stay diversified in a fragile environment. Continued ‘noise’ around trade is likely to leave markets alternating between disappointment and hope. With this in mind, we have a neutral stance on government bonds and developed-market equities alike, although we still see select opportunities in equities and appreciate the protective function of safe-haven bonds.

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ECB: Preview of the review

We see the ECB remaining on hold throughout next year although we believe it could tweak some of the technical parameters of its toolkit. The first press conference of any new ECB President is an event in itself, and this time will be no different. Christine Lagarde's debut this week will understandably attract a lot of attention as the media and market participants scrutinise both form and substance.

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Upward pressure on equity volatility mitigated by fund flows

Whereas inflation is expected to be dormant next year, our expectation of real GDP growth of just 1.3% in the US in 2020 could put upward pressure on equity volatility. Since monetary policy tends to lead volatility by two and a half years, the Fed’s turn toward quantitative tightening in 2017 is also continuing to exert upward pressure on volatility levels for now.

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Core sovereign bonds 2020 Outlook

Neutral US Treasuries. We expect the US 10-year yield to fall towards 1.3% in H1 as US growth falters and the US Federal Reserve starts signalling additional rate cuts. However, continued monetary easing and election promises (i.e. fiscal stimulus) could boost inflation expectations in H2, with the 10-year yield ending 2020 at around 1.6% in our central scenario.

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Euro Area 2020 Macro Outlook

After an estimated 1.2% in 2019, we expect GDP growth of 1.0% in the euro area in 2020. Country wise, we expect more manufacturing-intense countries to underperform more domestically driven ones. Thus, we project weak growth of 0.7% in Germany and 0.4% in Italy in 2020, while we expect France and Spain to remain relatively resilient, growing by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

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Currencies: do it with style

Our scenario of ongoing global growth moderation and elevated political uncertainties should, we believe, support defensive currencies. We consider a currency ‘defensive’ if it is likely to remain resilient should global risk appetite falter.

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Pictet — Investment Summit

The Pictet Investment Summit is designed as a forum where a range of internal and external experts present their visions of the investment landscape. David Rubinstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was one of the guests of the 2019 edition. In this video, he assesses trends in private equity, including the growing influence of family offices and emerging markets, and reflects on the long relationship between the Carlyle Group and Pictet. This...

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Pictet — Investment Summit

The Pictet Investment Summit is designed as a forum where a range of internal and external experts present their visions of the investment landscape. David Rubinstein, co-founder of the Carlyle Group, was one of the guests of the 2019 edition. In this video, he assesses trends in private equity, including the growing influence of family …

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Steady euro area growth and rise in core inflation

According to Eurostat’s preliminary figures, euro area GDP grew by 0.2% quarter on quarter in Q3, the same pace as in Q2 and in line with our expectations. Country wise, France, Italy and Spain grew at the same pace in Q3 as in Q2. In particular, household and investment spending grew at a solid pace in both France and Spain. The preliminary GDP figure for Germany will not be released until 14 November.

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Pictet — The Entrepreneurs

Innovation and sustainability were high on the agenda at the annual Pictet Entrepreneur’s Summit. These two themes were thoroughly dissected by a stellar panel of international thinkers and doers who spoke about the challenges and opportunities available to entrepreneurs. Experts included ex-Managing Director of Google UK and fintech founder Dan Cobley, the man who turned Patagonia into a multi-billion dollar business, Michael Crooke, and author...

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Pictet — The Entrepreneurs

Innovation and sustainability were high on the agenda at the annual Pictet Entrepreneur’s Summit. These two themes were thoroughly dissected by a stellar panel of international thinkers and doers who spoke about the challenges and opportunities available to entrepreneurs. Experts included ex-Managing Director of Google UK and fintech founder Dan Cobley, the man who turned …

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Pictet Perspectives – Value Stocks start to make a comeback ?

Markets have reached new highs, but looking beneath the surface reveals a more complex picture. Over the last 18 months, investors have ploughed into companies with a growth style bias at the sake of value, pushing the valuation differential between the two styles to an extreme. At this point, it does not require a dramatic rotation to narrow that valuation differential and we are now starting to see renewed investor interest in value-style stocks.

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Pictet Perspectives – Value Stocks start to make a comeback ?

Markets have reached new highs, but looking beneath the surface reveals a more complex picture. Over the last 18 months, investors have ploughed into companies with a growth style bias at the sake of value, pushing the valuation differential between the two styles to an extreme. At this point, it does not require a dramatic …

Read More »

Pictet Perspectives — Towards ‘Chinafication’

With growth indicators faltering and markets unsettled, policy makers in advanced economies are being forced to look at new ways to prolong the expansion. In many ways, their concerns are the same as their Chinese counterparts’. Could (Should) they also adopt Chinese economic policies? https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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Pictet Perspectives — Towards ‘Chinafication’

With growth indicators faltering and markets unsettled, policy makers in advanced economies are being forced to look at new ways to prolong the expansion. In many ways, their concerns are the same as their Chinese counterparts’. Could (Should) they also adopt Chinese economic policies? https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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MMT, la nouvelle théorie en vogue à Washington

L’influence du ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ est susceptible d’augmenter dans les milieux économiques et politiques américains.La nouvelle théorie monétaire (Modern Monetary Theory/MMT), théorie macroéconomique défendue par des économistes hétérodoxes, commence à faire son chemin aux Etats-Unis.

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Euro/USD: things look pretty stable

Competing forces mean the two currencies could remain in a holding pattern for a while.The euro has remained relatively stable relative to the US dollar in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meetings. Growth and interest rate differentials, two key drivers for the EUR/USD rate, suggest things could stay this way.

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Powell plays the ‘insurance’ card again

In spite of internal divisions, the Fed may go for a third rate cut in October and step in to alleviate pressure in repo market.The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. The new fed funds target range is 1.75%-2.00%. The interest rate on banks’ excess reserves was cut by 0.30% to 1.80%.

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Oil prices and the global economy

Low oil prices are good news for disposable income. But they also reflect the risk of oversupply in a world where growth indicators continue to point down.Events since Trump first threatened increased tariffs in 2017 provide a textbook example of how tariffs are transmitted through the global economy. First, the uncertainty they create hurts sentiment.

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