Category Archive: 2.) Pictet Macro Analysis

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China: PMIs suggest moderation in momentum in Q1

2018-02-02

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2018-02-02

Chinese official and Caixin manufacturing PMI, 2011 - 2018
China’s official manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) came in at 51.3 in January, down slightly from December (51.6). The Markit PMI (also known as the Caixin PMI) stayed at 51.5, the same as in the previous month (Chart 1). The official non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 55.0 in January from 44.8 the previous month.

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Strong growth and Abenomics mean Japanese equities continue to provide opportunities

2018-02-01

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2018-02-01

Japanese growth momentum is at its strongest in over a decade, with the quarterly Tankan survey of business conditions and sentiment strengthening to an 11 - year high in Q4 2017. The economy may have expanded by 1.8% in 2017, up from 0.9% in the previous year. In 2018, the growth rate may moderate slightly to 1.3%, but should remain well above Japan’s potential growth, which currently stands at 0.85%, according to the Bank of Japan (BoJ, see...

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Tax cuts and ‘animal spirits’ mean higher US growth in 2018

2018-01-31

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2018-01-31

December’s US tax cuts – which saw corporate taxation reduced particularly sharply – are being echoed in signs that ‘animal spirits’ are finally kicking in. Both set the stage, in our view, for higher US growth, in large part driven by greater investment. We therefore upgrade our 2018 US growth forecast from 2.0% to 3.0%. We forecast that real non-residential investment growth will accelerate to 7.0% in 2018, up from an estimated 4.6% in 2017. We...

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Europe chart of the week – The beginning of the ‘re-anchoring’

2018-01-28

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2018-01-28

Longer-term inflation expectations 2004-2018
Professional Forecasters survey shows a substantial improvement in economic growth and employment, consistent with the ECB’s own assessment.The ECB will be pleased by its latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The headlines are unambiguously positive, fuelled by the uninterrupted improvement in economic data, with expectations of GDP growth and HICP inflation revised higher for the next couple of years, sometimes substantially.

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Euro area: Business activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly 12 years

2018-01-24

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2018-01-24

Eurozone Composite PMI and GDP Growth, 2000 - 2018
The flash composite Purchasing Managers’ index for the euro area increased to 58.6 in January from 58.1 in December, above consensus expectations (57.9). The services sector index rose, offsetting the decline in the manufacturing index . Companies also expressed growing optimism about this year’s outlook, with business expectations up to an eight-month high.

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Upside risks to wages from IG Metall negotiations

2018-01-21

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2018-01-21

Euro area and German Wage Growth, 1999 - 2018
German wage negotiations are in full swing amid growing calls for strikes. This comes at a crucial time for the ECB as strong growth and falling unemployment are expected to feed into higher inflation. IG Metall is by far the most important union to watch, representing almost 4 million German workers and being seen as a benchmark, including in the car industry or the construction sector this year.

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Pictet Perspectives – Europe’s renaissance

2018-01-19

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The euro area is benefitting from a very strong momentum at the start of the year, supporting our view that economic growth will remain broadly stable in 2018 at around 2.3%. Risks to this rosy outlook include political events and a more hawkish ECB, although both look very manageable.

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Pictet Perspectives – Europe’s renaissance

2018-01-19

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The euro area is benefitting from a very strong momentum at the start of the year, supporting our view that economic growth will remain broadly stable in 2018 at around 2.3%. Risks to this rosy outlook include political events and a more hawkish ECB, although both look very manageable.

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Switzerland: Inflation at a seven-year high

2018-01-10

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2018-01-10

Swiss Headline and Core Inflation, 2005 - 2018
According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO), consumer prices in Switzerland remained broadly stable at 0.8% y-o-y in December, in line with consensus expectations, meaning that Swiss inflation stayed at its highest rate in almost seven years at the end of 2017.

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2018 ECB outlook – Mission: possible

2017-12-28

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2017-12-28

ECB Asset Purchase Programmes, March 2015 - December 2017
We expect the ECB to announce a tapering of its asset purchase programme in the summer, but not to overreact to strong economic data. Our first choice as the title for our 2018 ECB outlook was “The courage not to act”, but regular readers will know that we used this hommage to Ben Bernanke earlier this year.

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Increasingly optimistic on Swiss outlook

2017-12-22

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2017-12-22

At its December meeting, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its accommodative monetary policy unchanged. More specifically, the SNB maintained the target range for the three-month Libor at between - 1.25% and-0.25% and the interest rate on sight deposits at a record low of - 0.75%. The SNB also reiterated its commitment to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed, taking into account the “overall currency situation”.

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ECB closer to the 2% inflation target than meets the eye

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” - in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate.

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Euro area: The sky is the limit

2017-12-20

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2017-12-20

Momentum in the euro area picked up further at the end of the year. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The improvement was once again broad-based across sectors.

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Pictet Multi-Generational Wealth, Singapore (Full version)

2017-12-18

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The fourth edition of the Asian Family Office Master Class took place in Singapore in November 2017, with about 70 guests attending. The focus was around the three pillars of Pictet’s Family Office offer: family governance, investment governance and operational governance. Among the speakers, we had the pleasure of welcoming José Leyte, Chief Executive Officer …

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ECB preview: close to target…by 2020

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

ECB Staff Projections, Sep 2017
The ECB’s meeting on 14 December would be a non-event if it were not for two specific points to make clear before the Christmas break – the staff forecasts for inflation, and the not-so-constructive ambiguity on QE horizon. We expect no major surprise from the new staff projections, reflecting the ECB’s cautiously upbeat tone.

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The Swiss economy is gaining momentum

2017-12-14

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2017-12-14

Swiss Real GDP Growth, 1990 - 2018
Swiss growth was disappointing at the end of 2016 and in the first half of 2017. Consequently, GDP growth this year is likely to be just 1.0% , its lowest level since 2012 . However, a wide set of statistics are already painting a considerably more positive picture of strengthening growth as we approach the end of 2017. Of particular note is the increasing contribution of manufacturing to real GDP growth.

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Perspectives Pictet – Back to normal in markets in 2018

2017-12-14

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2017 was a remarkable year, with positive returns for a wide array of risk assets. The environment will likely remain supportive as well, but Cesar Perez Ruiz, CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, says he expects more normal market conditions in 2018, with spikes in volatility that offer greater opportunities for active management. http://perspectives.pictet.com https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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Perspectives Pictet – Back to normal in markets in 2018

2017-12-14

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2017 was a remarkable year, with positive returns for a wide array of risk assets. The environment will likely remain supportive as well, but Cesar Perez Ruiz, CIO at Pictet Wealth Management, says he expects more normal market conditions in 2018, with spikes in volatility that offer greater opportunities for active management. http://perspectives.pictet.com https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management

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Euro Area Forecast to Grow 2.3percent in 2018

2017-12-13

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2017-12-13

Euro Area Real GDP Growth
2017 was the year of the ‘Euroboom’ and the removal of political tail risks. Moving into 2018, we mark-to-market strong economic data, including carryover and revisions. We forecast annual GDP growth of 2.3% both in 2017 and 2018. Qualitatively, our forecasts reflect our view that the euro area has reached ‘escape velocity’, with important implications for investors.

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Pictet Perspectives – The Call of Asia

2017-12-01

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After a period of disappointment, Asian markets have outperformed for the past two years. And with paradigm shifts in businesses and economies, they still hold plenty of opportunities. So argues David Gaud, Chief Investment Officer for Asia at Pictet Wealth Management. https://www.group.pictet/wealth-management http://perspectives.pictet.com

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