Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

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The Swiss Trade Surplus: A Really Global Economy

2013-05-28

by George Dorgan

2013-05-28

The Swiss trade balance for goods clearly indicates its global orientation. Switzerland has a trade surplus with the US, Canada, the UK and many emerging markets. Swiss exports are mostly luxury products and pharmaceuticals. The total surplus for the 4 first months in 2013 was 7.7 billion CHF, about 1.2% of GDP, annualized around …

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Swiss Inflation Unchanged, HICP Difference Euro Area to Switzerland Down to 1.6 percent

2013-05-09

by George Dorgan

2013-05-09

Switzerland Inflation Eurozone April 2013

Swiss inflation unchanged in April against March. The inflation difference between the Euro area and Switzerland on a new low. While in early 2012 it was near 4%, if has shrunk now to 1.6%. Details

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Why it Makes Sense to Exit the Euro Zone in Times of Balance Sheet Recessions

Italy will follow Japan for decade(s) of balance sheet recession. There is one mean to avoid it. The periphery should use current positive market sentiments and low inflation to exit the euro zone.

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The European Transfer Union From North To South and from Poor to Rich between 1999 and 2007

cyprus, spain, italy, france, austria, portugal, germany, wealth europe in comparison

Cheap ECB rates and rising home prices helped to enrich Southern Europeans between 1999 and 2007. Germany's middle-class and poor, most of them not owning a home, were the ones that financed it.

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March Swiss Inflation Up 0.2 percent MoM, Down -0.6 percent YoY

2013-04-09

by George Dorgan

2013-04-09

swiss cpi eurozone march 2013 switzerland

Swiss inflation edged up 0.2% MoM when seasonal effects on clothes and footware were corrected. On a year basis, the CPI fell by 0.6%. Major reason were the falling energy prices, details

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The Transfer Union from South to North since 2008: Wolfgang Schäuble, the Evil Genius of the Euro Crisis

Wolfgang Schäuble has become the evil genius of the euro crisis. He has understood that the Cyprus crisis won't lead to a bank-run and collapse of capital markets. We all know that the US is now recovering.

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European Wealth Reports: Why “Median” Italians are Far Richer than Germans

Italy home sales business loans 2000-2012

We explain why according to the European wealth reports "median" Italians are more wealthy than Germans. The main reasons are high savings and accumulation of wealth for the average family until the 1990s, often invested in homes and real estate. Low ECB interest rates finally let the value of the home rise strongly.

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Swiss Current Account Surplus Rises from 8.5 percent to 13.5 percent of GDP

2013-03-28

by George Dorgan

2013-03-28

Real effective exchange rate CHF and Current Account Switzerland 2012

According to latest IMF data the Swiss current account surplus rose from 49 billion CHF in 2011 to 80 billion in 2012, this is from 8.5% of GDP to 13.5%. Details

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Swiss Economic Indicators, March 2013

2013-03-27

by George Dorgan

2013-03-27

GDP KOF Wages CPI PPI Trade Balance Consumption SECO Industrial Production Construction

Switzerland continues to see a robust economy, even if the leading KOF indicator fell to 0.99 after highs of 1.68 in September. On other side, real and nominal wages continue to increase. As opposed to the KOF value, the UBS consumption indicator is rising. This shows that the internal economy is able to balance … Continue...

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Dijsselbloem: The End of the Bankers’ and Bond Holders’ Moral Hazard

2013-03-27

by George Dorgan

2013-03-27

We have insisted in several posts that the northern euro zone is very reluctant to continuously bail out the periphery and in particular its banks. The euro group chief Dijsselbloem has confirmed this now.

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Cyprus, the Final Compromise: The Winners and the Losers

2013-03-25

by George Dorgan

2013-03-25

UPDATE March 25 The final compromise: via Reuters TOP NEWS Detail of EU/IMF bailout agreement with Cyprus Sun, Mar 24 22:19 PM EDT BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders on Monday for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout that will shut down its second largest bank and inflict heavy …

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Cyprus: The initial compromise and reactions

2013-03-23

by George Dorgan

2013-03-23

The initial compromise The Cyprus compromise combines a 10 billion € bailout with European, basically German tax-payers money, that also obliges rich account owners (9.9% levy) – rich Russians and Brits – and poorer account owners (6.75% levy) – Cypriot tax-payers money – to take part in the deal. Initial reactions from Zerohedge over Keynesian mainstream …

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Cyprus Levy on Deposits: New Escalation or Final Stage of Euro Crisis?

2013-03-16

by George Dorgan

2013-03-16

Nicosia will impose a 9.9 percent one-off levy on deposits above 100,000 euros in Cypriot banks. This constitutes maybe the final stage of the euro crisis, with the very last country to be rescued. Or will it be a new escalation and may be the most dangerous one, a bank-run? How many Cyprus clients managed …

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Difference between Eurozone and Swiss Inflation Rates Continues to Shrink

2013-03-09

by George Dorgan

2013-03-09

The gap has fallen from 3.7% in February 2012 to 2.1%. Swiss CPI is rising on monthly basis, but still negative with 0.3% YoY.

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Credit Suisse Study: Swiss Real Estate Market Needs Higher Rates

2013-03-07

by George Dorgan

2013-03-07

A new study by Credit Suisse claims that the SNB needs to hike interest rates in order to avoid excessive risk taking in real estate markets; in particular around the centers of Geneva and Zurich, but also in the Southern Swiss cantons with lower income, but high real estate prices.

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A Century Of French And Italian Economic Decline

eurozone margin proxy weakening msci em msci europe

Italy overtook Japan with the worst real GDP growth of all advanced economies since 1991 (0.79% per year, an amazing and sad distinction). Italians and French are clearly getting tired of austerity.

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Das beeindruckende Comeback Berlusconis.

2013-02-28

by George Dorgan

2013-02-28

Wir sind beeindruckt von dem Leitartikel der Weltwoche, der doch ganz unserem Gedankengut entsprochen hat. Der deutsche Kanzlerkandidat Steinbrück hat der deutschen Demokratieverachtung und EU-treuen Überheblichkeit dann noch das i-Tüpfelchen hinzugefügt. “Zwei Clowns haben gewonnen.“ Von Roger Köppel, Die Weltwoche Demokratie ist, wenn es anders herauskommt, als Meinungsführer, Journalisten und tonangebende Politiker gedacht...

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Über die Arroganz und Demokratiefeindlichkeit der deutschen und Schweizer Medien

2013-02-26

by George Dorgan

2013-02-26

Deutsche und Schweizer Medien sind oft vereint mit den Europäischen Leadern, Deutschen Exporteuren und den Finanzmärkten im Kampf gegen den gemeinsamen Feind, Silvio Berlusconi, das Enfant Terrible, das Gegenteil der Schweizer Bescheidenheit- und “Bloss nicht zu laut”-Etikette. Berlusconi soll Schuld sein am Abstieg Italiens seit den 90igern, obwohl auch die Linke mit Romani Prodi zweimal …

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Italy: A Sustained US Recovery Will Make a Eurozone Split Up Possible

We reckon that a sustained US recovery will make it possible that the eurozone splits up. Today's Italian elections are maybe the start of an upcoming Italian euro exit.

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