Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

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Latest Swiss Inflation Details

Switzerland’s Slow Way to Inflation

2013-02-13

by George Dorgan

2013-02-13

UPDATE February 2013 inflation data: The inflation figures for February showed the upwards movement we expected. On monthly basis inflation rose by 0.3%. The Swiss CPI is getting closer and closer to the one of the euro zone. We explain the January 2013 data on Swiss inflation and indicate which components drive the consumer …

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Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves: Same Concept, Update February 2013

2013-02-09

by George Dorgan

2013-02-09

target2 balances vs. snb reserves germany spain greece austria finland italy

We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.

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Bad News for SNB: While Target2 Imbalances Diminish, SNB Reserves Remain the Same

2013-02-09

by George Dorgan

2013-02-09

As we explain here, , Target2 balances and SNB currency reserves represent the same concept, namely capital flight (in a positive and negative sense) and current account imbalances. While Target2 numbers for Germany and Northern Europe go down, SNB reserves remain the same, only 3 billion CHF away from record highs.

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Comparing Trade Balances with FX Rates: Will the European Miracle End?

2013-01-27

by George Dorgan

2013-01-27

Eurostat recently published the European exports, imports and trade balance for the first ten months of 2012 compared to 2011. These show heavy improvements for the Southern member states but also a strong dependency on a weak euro.

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Deflationary Risks? Comparing Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian Inflation and Exchange Rates

2013-01-24

by George Dorgan

2013-01-24

House Prices Germany 7 cities vs. Greece

When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …

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Pictet on the sudden EUR/CHF Appreciation

2013-01-19

by George Dorgan

2013-01-19

While we blamed FX traders, that were waiting months for some good European news to push down the CHF, Pictet finds some more explanations.

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German Currency and Gold Reserves and the German Trade Surplus

2013-01-17

by George Dorgan

2013-01-17

During the Bretton Woods system, Germany managed to obtain current account surpluses. They converted these surpluses into gold. At the time they bought it at 35$ per ounce at a relatively cheap price – at the end of the 1960s the price was augmented to 42$. At the end of the 1960 and with …

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2012 Posts on Swiss Macro

Swiss Statistical Dashboard

Two ways for building the Northern euro, exit of Southern members or slow creation of Northern euro with currency interventions of central banks.

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2012 Posts on Euro Crisis and Euro Macro

Who Says No to Austerity and Global Imbalances, Must Say Yes to the Northern Euro

Eventually the euro will be abolished, a Northern Euro introduced: politicians and their economic advisors might just be waiting for a calm moment, especially with upcoming German inflation.

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The Upcoming Spanish Lost Decade(s)

2012-12-19

by George Dorgan

2012-12-19

To us, the big theatre surrounding Greece was just a preview of a much bigger crisis that will happen in the coming years in Spain, the upcoming Spanish lost decade(s). Greece was an absolutely desperate case; therefore, everything was quick. It took just two years till we arrived at the official sector participation and yearly German transfer …

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The Fairy Tale of Rising Competitiveness in the European Periphery

2012-12-17

by George Dorgan

2012-12-17

In our post we look on two questions concerning competitiveness for the European periphery: When will local production be cheaper than imported products? Do people have the money to buy these local products? It does not help reducing labor costs if local production costs still more than imported products. The second aspect is: even if …

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Who is the Biggest Debt Time Bomb: Japan, France, the UK or the United States?

2012-12-16

by George Dorgan

2012-12-16

Some must reads: According to the Economist the biggest time bomb in the euro zone crisis is France. We wonder why the United States and Britain, that have same weak trade balances, the same weak competitiveness and a debt overhang, shouldn't have a problem? Just because France must do austerity according to the German Fiscal Compact wish, and the US and Britain do not need to do this? Or like Ray Dalio called it, are the US and Britain...

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4 Different Solutions for the Euro Crisis: Can it Be the Northern Euro? A Discussion

2012-12-15

by George Dorgan

2012-12-15

The discussion about the future of the Euro: Among a Post-Keynesian, a European Etatist, an Austrian economist and an advocate of a Northern Euro on the French website www.atlantico.fr. The French paper is asking: “Sommet européen : créer un euro du Nord est-il le seul moyen de sauver l’Europe de l’austérité ?” Is the creation of …

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