Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

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Das beeindruckende Comeback Berlusconis.

2013-02-28

by George Dorgan

2013-02-28

Wir sind beeindruckt von dem Leitartikel der Weltwoche, der doch ganz unserem Gedankengut entsprochen hat. Der deutsche Kanzlerkandidat Steinbrück hat der deutschen Demokratieverachtung und EU-treuen Überheblichkeit dann noch das i-Tüpfelchen hinzugefügt. “Zwei Clowns haben gewonnen.“ Von Roger Köppel, Die Weltwoche Demokratie ist, wenn es anders herauskommt, als Meinungsführer, Journalisten und tonangebende Politiker gedacht...

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Über die Arroganz und Demokratiefeindlichkeit der deutschen und Schweizer Medien

2013-02-26

by George Dorgan

2013-02-26

Deutsche und Schweizer Medien sind oft vereint mit den Europäischen Leadern, Deutschen Exporteuren und den Finanzmärkten im Kampf gegen den gemeinsamen Feind, Silvio Berlusconi, das Enfant Terrible, das Gegenteil der Schweizer Bescheidenheit- und “Bloss nicht zu laut”-Etikette. Berlusconi soll Schuld sein am Abstieg Italiens seit den 90igern, obwohl auch die Linke mit Romani Prodi zweimal …

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Italy: A Sustained US Recovery Will Make a Eurozone Split Up Possible

We reckon that a sustained US recovery will make it possible that the eurozone splits up. Today's Italian elections are maybe the start of an upcoming Italian euro exit.

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Eurostat Inflation Dashboard

Latest Swiss Inflation Details

Switzerland’s Slow Way to Inflation

2013-02-13

by George Dorgan

2013-02-13

UPDATE February 2013 inflation data: The inflation figures for February showed the upwards movement we expected. On monthly basis inflation rose by 0.3%. The Swiss CPI is getting closer and closer to the one of the euro zone. We explain the January 2013 data on Swiss inflation and indicate which components drive the consumer …

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Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves: Same Concept, Update February 2013

2013-02-09

by George Dorgan

2013-02-09

target2 balances vs. snb reserves germany spain greece austria finland italy

We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.

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Bad News for SNB: While Target2 Imbalances Diminish, SNB Reserves Remain the Same

2013-02-09

by George Dorgan

2013-02-09

As we explain here, , Target2 balances and SNB currency reserves represent the same concept, namely capital flight (in a positive and negative sense) and current account imbalances. While Target2 numbers for Germany and Northern Europe go down, SNB reserves remain the same, only 3 billion CHF away from record highs.

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Comparing Trade Balances with FX Rates: Will the European Miracle End?

2013-01-27

by George Dorgan

2013-01-27

Eurostat recently published the European exports, imports and trade balance for the first ten months of 2012 compared to 2011. These show heavy improvements for the Southern member states but also a strong dependency on a weak euro.

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Deflationary Risks? Comparing Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian Inflation and Exchange Rates

2013-01-24

by George Dorgan

2013-01-24

House Prices Germany 7 cities vs. Greece

When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …

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Pictet on the sudden EUR/CHF Appreciation

2013-01-19

by George Dorgan

2013-01-19

While we blamed FX traders, that were waiting months for some good European news to push down the CHF, Pictet finds some more explanations.

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German Currency and Gold Reserves and the German Trade Surplus

2013-01-17

by George Dorgan

2013-01-17

During the Bretton Woods system, Germany managed to obtain current account surpluses. They converted these surpluses into gold. At the time they bought it at 35$ per ounce at a relatively cheap price – at the end of the 1960s the price was augmented to 42$. At the end of the 1960 and with …

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2012 Posts on Swiss Macro

Swiss Statistical Dashboard

Two ways for building the Northern euro, exit of Southern members or slow creation of Northern euro with currency interventions of central banks.

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2012 Posts on Euro Crisis and Euro Macro

Who Says No to Austerity and Global Imbalances, Must Say Yes to the Northern Euro

Eventually the euro will be abolished, a Northern Euro introduced: politicians and their economic advisors might just be waiting for a calm moment, especially with upcoming German inflation.

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