Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Are Markets Front-running Rate Cuts? (12/12/23)

2023-12-12

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(12/12/23) It's CPI Day, and November inflation clocked-in at an expected rate of .1%, which now begs the answer to tomorrow's question: Will the Fed do? A review of market performance vs portfolio performance: What metric are you using to measure success? Market history vs current market dynamics, and the investor conundrum" How "this time" could very well be different. We have seen a classical conditioning of the markets: The Fed...

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How Theft Creates More Inflation

2023-12-11

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12/27/23) Hate those self-checkout registers at the store? Merchants are discovering they might be costing more in "shrinkage" than is being saved by fewer employees working registers. Lance addresses the problem with self-checkout & retail theft; creation of more inflation; Gen-Z's five-finger discount habit. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer...

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Ten Steps to Achieving the ‘American Dream’

2023-12-11

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(12/11/23) Friday's employment report was not great: comprised pf mostly striking workers returning to the job; factor out anomalies, and it was a very weak report: Weak enough for markets to hope for Fed to further pause rate hikes? What will the Fed say on Wednesday? The risk of correction from a hawkish Fed. Markets set new highs for 2023 but remain at zero for the past 22-months. The end of the buyback window; when the buying stampede is over....

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Why Time in the Market Matters

2023-12-08

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Markets have had zero-returns over past two years. Why time in the market matters--especially if you're young. Risk management is more important when you're older; the 50/20/30 Rule. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:...

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Cash in a 5% World

2023-12-08

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T-Bill & Chill? Putting cash to work in a 5% world. Bankers are betting you're going to be lazy; what will you do when rates go back down? Hosted by RIA Advisors' Senior Financial Advisors Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch the full show from which this excerpt was lifted on our YouTube channel: _6H1Iac&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s...

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Putting Cash to Work in a 5% World (12/8/23)

2023-12-08

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(12/8/23) Markets and the Fed are at odds in interest rate expectations; AMD vs NVDIA in the chip wars; why markets are pulling back: Setting up for a Santa Claus rally. Will Jobs numbers line-up with market expectations? T-Bill & Chill? Putting cash to work in a 5% world. Bankers are betting you're going to be lazy; what will you do when rates go back down? What will be the next "Magnificent-7?" S&P predictions for 2024; how we...

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Banking Rules & Blockchain Fears

2023-12-07

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(12/28/23) Newly proposed rules for raising major banks' reserve requirements are raising the ire of Bank CEO's like JPMorgan/Chase's Jamie Dimon. Boo-hoo. either get completely under government control, or exist as independent private business, and be allowed to fail without bailouts. Why the government wants to force banks to hold more reserves: Buy more bonds. Bitcoin: Why is Dimon so opposed? The alternative to banking. The difference between...

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When the #Fed’s Wait-and-See = Pause (12/7/23)

2023-12-07

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(12/7/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Happens When Buybacks Go Away " is here: -jBIrzg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is There Hope for 2024?"...

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Will 2024 See a Soft-landing, Recession…or Worse?

2023-12-06

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(12/6/23) Will there be a soft-landing, recession, or worse in 2024...or not until 2025? There is still lots of liquidity sloshing around the system. Focus on risk management & timing management; markets cannot seem to break out of present trading range; stock buyback window closes on Friday. End of year maneuvers should include RMD's, charitable giving, HSA's, and tax-loss harvesting; don't ignore the wash rule! Why jobs matter: Yield curves...

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What Analysts are Always Bullish

2023-12-05

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(12/26/23) Why analysts are always bullish (85% of the time, markets ARE). The Big Business of Wall Street: Who's really important to Wall Street. How IPO's really work. Analysts' actual performance revealed vs what they're predicting for 2024. SEG-1: Why Analysts Are Always Bullish, Pt-1. SEG-2: Why Analysts Are Always Bullish, Pt-2. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...

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Is 2024 Optimism Misplaced? (12/5/23)

2023-12-05

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(12/5/23) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is a Sell-off Nigh for the Magnificent Seven?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will You Be Visited by Ghosts of Financial Mistakes-past?"...

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Is the ‘Everything’ Rally Over?

2023-12-04

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(12/4/23) Welcome to the first full week of December trading; a review of Mrs. Roberts' Birthday Weekend; market-wise, the stock buy back window is closing; expectations for a hawkish Fed statement next week; mutual fund distributions are coming; be cautious about being overly bullish. Rotations from the Magnificent Seven are beginning; the 'Everything' Rally went too far, too fast. We're back where we were in July; losses were mitigated by the...

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Will You Be Visited by Ghosts of Financial Mistakes-past?

2023-12-01

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(12/1/23) The next James Bond movie should be called, "Convexity," starring Michael Lebowitz; looking at the Climate Summit: What's on Bill Gates' agenda? ESG is a farce; it's all about big business; eating bugs and drinking beetle juice. How to execute Thematic Investing; what are the rules needed to manage? The Magazine of Wall Street: How times have changed. Financial Ghosts-past: learning from your mistakes. Calculating your personal...

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Doing the Bond Math Amid Fiscal Dysfunction

2023-11-30

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(11/30/23) Face-off Movie, Bond Math, and Market Preview: How does the Consumer continue to spend? Texas' Christmas spending habits = $817/avg. Budgeting for Christmas w price pressure in mind. Will interest rates be but next year (why wouild the Fed do that)? Michael Lebowitz helps crunch the Bond Math: What price changes mean in the Bond Market. What is the credit risk to consider? How will you be paid? Recession is inevitable; how long do you...

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WWCMD: What Would #CharlieMunger Do? (11/29/23)

2023-11-29

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(11/29/23) Berkshire Hathaway #2 man, Charlie Munger, has passed at age 99. We explore memorable quips and quotes from this amazing investor. Hosted by RIA's Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Need a Breather" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1...

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If You Think You Made Too Much Money This Year… (11/28/23)

2023-11-28

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(11/28/23) After a protracted Thanksgiving break, Danny and Jonathan preview markets and economic releases this week, along with Fed minutes & holiday spending trends: Thanksgiving wasn't cheap, and Christmas is going on credit cards. The rate of inflation may be lower, but prices are still going up. Holiday chaos, hippie cookies (sorry, Michelle), and what to do with extra cash? Will rates be lower next year? Defining the Yield Curve (and wy...

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2023 Thanksgiving Vacation

2023-11-21

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Seasons Greetings are upon us, and we're going to take a few days to enjoy family and friends for the Thanksgiving Holiday. We've created a suite of memorable segments from past shows to provide your Lance-fix for the next few days, so be sure you're subscribed to this channel; our Best-of Lance segments will premier here each morning at 6am CST. We'll reconvene with live shows starting Monday, November 27. Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at The...

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Why the S&P is Up 17% and You’re Not

2023-11-21

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(11/21/23) Earnings Season continues with NVIDIA set to report this evening after the bell: expectations are high, and if there's a miss, markets may punish. Markets have become very elevated only a month after everyone was so pessimisti. The Bond Market continues to surprise with a stellar acution of 20-year bonds. Will there be a Recession, a soft-landing, or no Reccession in 2024? Who knows?? Markets are over bought and need to take a breather...

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Season Season on Wall Street

2023-11-20

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(11/20/23) A look at the highest-grossing horror films of all time, and holiday week markets: July's market exuberance was followed by a predicted decline into October, which was entirely normal for any given year. Now markets are over bought, and another pullback is imminent, likely between now and next week. Meanwihle, with many traders on holiday, silly season has descended upon Wall street. Portfolio managers will be rebalancing for end-of-year...

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What Does the Fed Know It’s Not Telling Us?

2023-11-17

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What does the Fed know that they're not telling the rest of us? Comparing 2016-19 to now: The Fed managed rate changes and the lag effect, saving the hedge funds. What happens in an economy dependent upon credit? Higher rates creating stress in the system. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The Full show from which this segment is excerpted is here:...

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