Presidential Elections And Market Corrections
2024-03-10
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.
Are Buybacks Worth Paying Up For?
2024-02-29
Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it’s only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies’ ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets’ ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio performance within complacent markets (volatility is negatively correlated with markets.) Indicators are never perfect; avoid basing portfolio on just indicators. Examining the pace of stock buybacks: Are they really of value? Why pay a premium? Buybacks increase share price, not value. Apple vs Tesla: There has been no real innovation from Apple
Take January With a Grain of Salt
2024-01-03
(1/3/24) Millennials’ Bare Minimum Monday’s could produce some unexpected results; setting up for January market performance in a Presidential cycle; will the Magnificent 7 produce a repeat performance in 2024? Markets on Tuesday corrected to bounce off the 20-DMA, with high tech names under pressure. Buy-signals triggered for Bonds. Rich Dad/Poor Dad Czar Kiyosaki’s debt philosophies and how to properly leverage debt. Home Sales & inventory: Are we seeing the start of trouble in the sector? Wall Street axioms & The January Trifecta; take them with a grain of salt. Mistakes in portfolio & market perspectives, year to year. Social Security COLA for 2024; making choices to fix SS are vote killers for politicians. Retirement planning & Monte Carlo simulations; the future is not going to be
Will 2024 See a Soft-landing, Recession…or Worse?
2023-12-06
(12/6/23) Will there be a soft-landing, recession, or worse in 2024…or not until 2025? There is still lots of liquidity sloshing around the system. Focus on risk management & timing management; markets cannot seem to break out of present trading range; stock buyback window closes on Friday. End of year maneuvers should include RMD’s, charitable giving, HSA’s, and tax-loss harvesting; don’t ignore the wash rule! Why jobs matter: Yield curves are inverted; when they un-invert will herald recession: The big question is when?? Markets have had zero-returns over past two years. Why time in the market matters–especially if you’re young. Risk management is more important when you’re older; the 50/20/30 Rule.
3:04 – Recession 2024 or 2025?
14:14 – End of Year Maneuvers
29:59 – JOLTS & Jobs:
2023 Thanksgiving Vacation
2023-11-21
Seasons Greetings are upon us, and we’re going to take a few days to enjoy family and friends for the Thanksgiving Holiday. We’ve created a suite of memorable segments from past shows to provide your Lance-fix for the next few days, so be sure you’re subscribed to this channel; our Best-of Lance segments will premier here each morning at 6am CST. We’ll reconvene with live shows starting Monday, November 27.
Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at The Real Investment Show!
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The Year of The Magnificent Seven
2023-11-16
(11/16/23) This will be The Year of the Magnificent Seven–those dominant stocks that have powered the markets, responsible for 112% of this year’s gains. Markets are working through earnings season; Target & WalMart: A tale of Two Retailers. Markets are returning to overbought conditions, ripe for a pullback. Best opportunities to add exposure will likely be post-Thanksgiving. The problem with easing financial conditions for the Fed: heighten exuberance leads to more spending & inflation. 20- Fed speakers this week made no mention of this. Recession will occur when employment turns sour. Fed guidance to markets: Not saying anything for a while, positioning to be "right," regardless of outcome. Why would the Fed cut rates? That’s the Fed’s conundrum. What does the Fed know that they’re
Recession Fears Return as Bond Rates Drop
2023-11-13
(11/13/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investing Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Testing 100-DMA" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "What’s Up with Bonds?"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"2020 vs 2023: Are Economists Making The Same Mistake?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/2020-vs-2023-are-economists-making-the-same-mistake/
"Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/
"Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren’t"
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