by Lance Roberts
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| (12/12/23) It's CPI Day, and November inflation clocked-in at an expected rate of .1%, which now begs the answer to tomorrow's question: Will the Fed do? A review of market performance vs portfolio performance: What metric are you using to measure success? Market history vs current market dynamics, and the investor conundrum" How "this time" could very well be different. We have seen a classical conditioning of the markets: The Fed always comes to the rescue. All you need to know about QE from Ben Bernanke in 2010. Al Gore is up in arms over no elimination of fossil fuels (which are necessary for life as we know it). Tik-Tok news and "adult" discussions; Poll: Are economic conditions getting worse? Data sources. Composites of the CPI: What matters more--CPI or Core CPI (what the Fed looks at). Markets are betting the Fed is done...but, the Fed has not said: Wants lower asset prices, slower economic growth and higher unemployment and disinflation. Market pre-open commentary; changes in market psychology. 2:52 - CPI Day & Fed Preview 14:14 - The Fed's Classical Conditioning of the Markets 30:15 - Are Economic Conditions Getting Worse? 44:09 - Composites of the CPI Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Is Measuring Markets By Equal-weighting Better?" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Ten Steps to Achieving the 'American Dream'" &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2449s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "The 'American Dream' Isn’t Dead. 10-Steps To Achieve It." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-american-dream-isnt-dead-10-steps-to-achieve-it/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #CPI #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedPause #Markets #Money #Investing |
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Is the ‘Everything’ Rally Over?
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(12/4/23) Welcome to the first full week of December trading; a review of Mrs. Roberts’ Birthday Weekend; market-wise, the stock buy back window is closing; expectations for a hawkish Fed statement next week; mutual fund distributions are coming; be cautious about being overly bullish. Rotations from the Magnificent Seven are beginning; the ‘Everything’ Rally went too far, too fast. We’re back where we were in July; losses were mitigated by the Magnificent Seven. Chasing last year’s leaders is not a good idea. As we wrap up 2023, we believe December will be more muted, barely positive. Recession talk has not abated, slower growth is expected, which is why the Fed had paused. Jerome Powell is not in as good a position as before, saying it is "premature to conclude when policy might ease."
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(12/1/23) The next James Bond movie should be called, "Convexity," starring Michael Lebowitz; looking at the Climate Summit: What’s on Bill Gates’ agenda? ESG is a farce; it’s all about big business; eating bugs and drinking beetle juice. How to execute Thematic Investing; what are the rules needed to manage? The Magazine of Wall Street: How times have changed. Financial Ghosts-past: learning from your mistakes. Calculating your personal debt-to-income ratio, and our recommendations; the wisdom of waiting; wants vs needs. Careful of using online tools to calculate debt ratios (know the source!) "Standard Rules" vs reality. Home affordability and the trend toward smaller houses. Money Scripts & the $5 test: The Ratliff Safe (TM)
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(11/2/23) (11/2/23) Childrens’ birthdays & the circle of life; after three good days of rally, markets are close to triggering a buy signal; what markets need is to surpass and maintain levels at 200-DMA. Still to come: ADP & Jobs reports, which do not jive. The run up in Gold (thanks, Hamas) and the coming spin down in BitCoin: Take profits now. Earnings preview, and a review of Jerome Powell’s non-news: Holding rates firm, with the off-chance of another rate hike. Why the Fed cannot say when rates will come down; debt vs economic growth: Issuing debt to pay off det: Is this a good idea? Not all issuance results in spending. Looking for clues of consumer pullback: Target groceries and Eli Lilly COVID sales (Zero). Was exceptional growth in the third quarter a fluke?
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