Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Light Trading Ahead of Easter | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-11

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(4/11/22) This will likely be a much-lighter trading week, ahead of the Good Friday holiday and Easter. Markets have been in an orderly decline following the recent rally; markets are holding support right at the 50-DMA. If that level can be sustained, markets will be primed to rally again. However, sell-signals have been triggered from a fairly high level, so more correctional action is also possibility. Markets are continuing in a month-long...

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Why Everyone is Obsessed with Recession

2022-04-11

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Earnings season is about to re-convene: What companies say about forward looking guidance will be key. This is a holiday-shortened trading week with Good Friday. We've been in a major bear market, despite what the main stream media says. What does it mean when everyone is talking about Recession? A discussion of Yield Curve(s) behaviors; how you know we're at the peak of a business cycle. The problem with lagging indicators. King Richard & Will...

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What is a Retirement Plan?

2022-04-09

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(4/8/22) What corporations are saying about inflation & future earnings. Creativity in the Peep-dom: Richard discovers alternatively-flavored marshmallow Peeps; Wal-art's $100k truck drivers. Annuities in retirement; where's the target on target-dated funds (on your back). How to Quell Retirement Fears vs reaching retirement goals; what is the real definition of "retirement plan?" Achieving retirement nirvana vs under-funded plans....

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How Interest Rates Really Respond to the Fed | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-07

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(4/7/22) How do interest rates respond to Fed dynamics? Meeting minutes from the latest FOMC confab reveal a majority of Fed members favor an accelerated tapering of the Fed's balance sheet, and schedule of rate hikes--leading to Wednesday's sell-off. Historically, previous rate hikes and balance sheet lightening resulted in counter-intuitive movement in actual interest rates. Using the 10-year Treasuries as a proxy, it's interesting to note...

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How Markets Are Responding to a Faster Fed

2022-04-07

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(4/7/22) Now that the Fed's more rapid rate hike cat is out of the bag, markets celebrated with a Wednesday sell-off; at this point, it's instructive to note the history of market activity around such hikes; earnings growth will be challenged by higher rates, higher borrowing costs; Coffee Talk: Taking the Caffeine our of the Markets; markets have priced-in the Fed's rate hikes. The Fed's talking the talk, and hoping markets will do the heavy...

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Will the Markets’ Reflexive Rally Remain?

2022-04-06

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(4/6/22) The Fed's Lael Brainard is calling for a faster run-off of its balance sheet in a more rapid application of quantitative tightening; this will not create any more inventory, but will reduce buyers. Margin Calls and the problem with bailouts; why the weak should be allowed to fail. The ferocity of downward trends; the conundrum of margins in commodity markets. How liquidity kills you quickly. Watch for the Fed to return to QE. Will the...

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Where Will Markets Go in April? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-04

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(4/4/22) April tends to be a strong month, statistically; will that trend prevail this year? Only a few weeks ago did markets sell-off into extreme over-sold territory on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since then, markets have rallied, and now needs to consolidate to hold important critical support at moving averages that are just below current market levels. If markets break through these levels, there will be a retest of market lows. By May, all...

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Anatomy of a Bear Market

2022-04-04

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(4/4/22) Elon Musk knows how to combat Twitter, scooping up a 9% stake in the company; April is a stronger month for markets, but could the Fed's activity make for a sloppy summer of trading? Jobs Act 4.0 & How Wall St. extracts capital by changing "accredited investor" definition. More Life with the Roberts, the worst thing you can do for kids; anatomy of a bear market. Best Ice Cream Flavors, on-boarding back into the markets, the...

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What is Retirement Reform?

2022-04-02

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(4/1/22) There's no need for April Foolery--things are strange enough as they are; We need Reagan's 'Whip Inflation Now' resurrected; what is the Yield Curve telling us; how to read the Bond Market. Assessing Retirement Reform; the Opus Newton experiment; What did Granpda Rosso's Retirement look like--and is that what you want? Social Security claiming strategies & decisions.

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Will Markets Continue Their Bullish March? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-31

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(3/31/22) Markets have enjoyed a 10% rally in the waning days of March, very much in line with a typical bull market. As we enter the month of April, statistically, markets would tend to follow through with March's performance. However, a pullback to support would not be surprising, and would allow markets to work off their over-bought conditions. The Fed will be hiking rates, monetary policy will tighten and inflation will more and more weigh on...

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Will the Fed Hike Rates Eight Times?

2022-03-31

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(3/31/22) "The Smartest Guys in The Room," the story of Enron and Video streaming juxtaposed with the launch Tuesday of CNN+; why a market correction is needed to work off excesses. It's a good time to be an agnostic: Neither Bull or Bear. So how many times will the Fed raise rates (before something gets broken)? The Carbon Credits scam and "green gas premiums; the adverse consequences from the quest for "green" energy. How...

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What the Largest Rally Since 1932 Means for Your Money | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-30

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(3/30/22) The current, near-10% rally is largest we've seen in history--assuming we're in a bear market. While technically, we didn't see a correction, the actions of the market belies otherwise. It is only in bear markets that these types of reflexive rallies are observed.

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The Biggest Risk to Markets Now

2022-03-30

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York Peppermint Patties & Coffee Prices, and the market rally continues, courtesy of a feigned pullback by Russia in Ukraine; why rallies like this only occur in bear markets. The Wisdom of Weddings on Birthdates (and other holidays); What happens after this rally?

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Is this a Bear Squeeze or a Return of the Bull? | 3:00 on markets & Money

2022-03-29

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Is the rally of the past few weeks a bonafide return of the Bull Market? Negative sentiment fostered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine set markets up for a reversal when the world didn't come to an end, and rallying mode ensued.

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Markets Stuck in Wash, Repeat, Rinse Cycle

2022-03-29

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(3/29/22) Quarter-end selling continues; how we allow psychology to affect investing decisions; what happens when inflation is artificially imposed. How debt deters economic growth. Why negativity is a contrarian indicator, and why we sold (some) stocks; Markets are in a Wash, Rinse, Repeat Cycle; Why headlines do not affect all stocks equally;

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Quarter End – Is it Time to Rebalance?

2022-03-28

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(3/28/22) Markets' sharp rally heading into the end of the quarter was expected, lifting indexes above the 200- and 50-DMA amidst negative sentiment and light positioning in portfolios. The clearing of overhead resistance sets markets up for a little more rallying up to the levels seen in December last year. Markets are very over bought on multiple levels, and pretty close to triggering a sell-signal. That does not necessarily mean markets are...

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What Happens with No Penalty for Failure

2022-03-28

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(3/28/22) The Oscar Slap heard 'round the world; The Billionaires' Tax explains, and why it won't pass muster; How the Flu was eliminated by COVID, and now...the impact of legislation, and why the Fed uses Quantitative Easing. The moral hazard for investors, and what happens when there's no penalty for excess; the "new" method for dealing with ecession: Don't let them occur. Emergency Assistance and whose at fault when investments for...

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When Your Financial Plan Isn’t Working

2022-03-26

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(3/25/22) How do you adequately plan your financial future with a Fed that is as outdated as a rectal thermometer? Their answer to every problem is sending a check. Gasoline Prices & Animal House; inflation and the "significant passage of time." What happens when your financial plan isn't working? Social Security COLA, tracking inflation's impact on your financial goals; dealing with volatility in distribution-mode. Improving credit...

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The Rate Hike Outlook Episode, Pt-2

2022-03-25

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(3/24/22) Markets' recent rally providing nice relief; bullish appetite for stocks remains, despite Ukraine, Interest rates, and inflation concerns. What happens when the Fed "prints" money; at what point will the Fed have gone too far? Life w The Roberts'; why Recessions aren't a bad thing; gasoline rebates are financial lunacy. Implications and consequences of 3% interest rates; how debt allows excessive lifestyles; Gov't. not allowing...

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Markets to End March Bullishly

2022-03-24

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(3/24/22) Markets' recent rally back above resistance levels sets up for a bullish advance into the end of the month. Markets are over-bought, short-term, so some consolidation at current levels would not be surprising. There is good support as markets sit atop the 50-DMA, and the 20-DMA is starting to turn upwards as another bullish barometer. As the end of the month approaches next week, mutual funds will need to rebalance portfolios, thanks to...

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